From The Business Insider, Nov. 23, 2009:

Microsoft (MSFT) wants to pay News Corp (NWS) and other large publishers to de-list their Web sites from Google's (GOOG) search index, the Financial Times reports.

The idea is to force Google (GOOG) to pay for content, thinning its currently fat margins.

Problem is, we can't imagine Google going for it.

For one, the FT reports that Google’s UK director Matt Brittin told a conference last week that Google did not need news content to survive.

“Economically it’s not a big part of how we generate revenue,” he said

For another, we can't imagine links to worthwhile stories originating from News Corp not finding their way onto sites that will happily remain indexed in Google's search engine free of charge.

Still, if News Corp were to "de-list" from Google, we'd expect to see all kinds of ads touting Bing as the only place to find the Wall Street Journal and MySpace pages online. Maybe that'd swing search engine share some, but we doubt it.

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Timing is everything in the investment business, and bad timing has caused more market gurus to be carried out on stretchers than just about any other forecasting mistake.

Last year, in 2008, Gary Shilling of A. Gary Shilling & Co. was as right as anyone could ever hope to be.  Just about every one of his (bearish) predictions came true--and he was one of the few forecasters who saw the collapse coming.

This year, Gary has had a rougher go of it.  The market tanked in the winter, as he expected, but since then it has gone on a 60+% rocket ride.

Whenever the market moves in the opposite direction than you expect, you have to ask yourself whether you're just early...or wrong.

Gary has asked himself this question, and, for now, he still thinks he's just early.  We asked him what would get him to change his mind.

Resumed profligate spending by consumers, Gary says.

Key to Gary's thesis of slow growth for the next decade...

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With prices rising for many goods including food, fuel, gold and stocks, many market watchers are chanting: beware of inflation!

But not our guest Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shiling & Co. "I see a world of excess supply," says Shilling, author of the popular INSIGHT newsletter. "I see that over the next decade."

Many signs point toward deflationary pressures, according to Shilling: Advances in technology boosting productivity, globalization and weak demand for goods as Americans save more. All these factors are likely to build inventory and trim about 1.5% off real U.S. GDP growth annually, he says.

So what should an investor buy in a deflationary environment? Shilling's strategy includes preferring:...

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It's two weeks until Black Friday, the unofficial start to the holiday shopping season, and already there's heated anticipation about blockbuster deals and big crowds.

But wait. Joel Waldfogel, a Wharton professor and author of "scroogenomics," argues gift giving is not productive for the American economy.

"Through gift giving, it has a chance to miss the mark and not produce that much satisfaction for us," Waldfogel says, explaining that money we spend on ourselves is more economically efficient than money spent on gifts.

If a present or two that misses the mark seems harmless, consider that Americans spend a whopping $65 billion on holiday gifts annually. Research shows 20% of that total -- or $13 billion -- is wasted on useless or unappreciated gifts, Waldfogel notes.

Gift cards: Of course gift cards have gained in popularity...

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More Americans are losing their jobs as domestic unemployment soared to 10.2% in October -- a 26-year high. It could take at least four years before unemployment recovers to more normal levels of 5 or 6 percent, Chris Rupkey, an economist at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, told the AP.

However, 80% of companies listed on the S&P 500 have reported better-than-forecast third-quarter profits. What's going on?

"For most ordinary Americans life is still pretty tough. Unemployment is rising," says our guest Matthew Bishop, NY bureau chief for The Economist. The layoff announcements continued Tuesday with Adobe's announcement it will cut 680 jobs. Meanwhile, the retail sector is increasing its holiday staffing at a slower-than-normal pace, the BLS reports.

Businesses faring better:  "But the business sector has actually responded very well to the challenge of the crisis," Bishop tells Aaron. Through layoffs and paying down of debt, many businesses have got their financial houses into order and are looking at opportunities -- in emerging markets and/or mergers and acquisitions.

"The markets are reflecting an optimistic scenario," says Bishop, author of several finance books, most recently co-author of "Philanthrocapitalism." Indeed, the Dow Tuesday finished above 10,247 -- the highest close since Sept. 2008.   

Caution for investors...

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From The Business Insider, Nov. 9, 2009:

Gold smashed through an all-time high of $1,100 an ounce on Friday, bringing some solace to gold bugs who have been losing money on the metal since the 1980s.

Gold still hasn't come anywhere near its late-1980's peak on an inflation-adjusted basis ($1,800 or so), belying the general theory that it's a great inflation hedge.  As the world gold frenzy really takes hold, however, $2,000-an-ounce predictions are coming fast and furious, so there's always hope.

The NYT surveys the gold landscape, checking in on the ultimate symbol of the rush--the bars on sale at the counters of Harrods:

[L]ast month, Harrods, the 160-year-old London department store, began selling coins as well as gold bullion ranging from tiny 1-gram ingots to the hefty, 12.5-kilogram, 400-Troy-ounce bricks that are so often featured in movies and stocked inside the vaults of Fort Knox. Harrods’s lower ground floor, where the gold is peddled, has been packed with interested shoppers.

“The response has been astounding,” said Chris Hall, head of Harrods Gold Bullion. “Bars are definitely more popular than coins. The 100-gram is the most popular.”...

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It's difficult to deny Google's transformative -- and disruptive -- power on many traditional businesses from newspapers to book publishing. Now a decade after its founding by two Stanford University students, Larry Page and Sergey Brin, the digital media behemoth is experiencing growing pains -- while reaching for even more.

"And they're not always well-equipped for those challenges," says our guest Ken Auletta, author of the new book "Googled: The End of the World as We Know It." Based on more than a dozen visits to the tech campus, Auletta had access to the founders, CEO Eric Schmidt and about 150 present and former employees for the book.

Challenges ahead.

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Many media-industry pundits have dismissed Comcast's play for NBC as the latest foray of a deranged distribution guy (Comcast CEO Brian Roberts) obsessed with getting into the content business.

The evidence?  Roberts tried desperately to buy Disney a few years ago--over his shareholders' screams--and now he's furiously negotiating for a hobbled NBC.  All this while fellow cable-content mogul Jeff Bewkes of Time Warner is bemoaning the hard lessons his company learned when it tried to combine content and distribution into the Holy Grail of "synergy."

But Roberts isn't a madman, says Leo Hindery, managing director of private-equity firm InterMedia Partners.

Comcast's goal here...

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Every time Warren Buffett does something, a legion of Buffett-watchers immediately pass judgement on whether the world's most-admired investor has finally lost his mind.

Well, he hasn't, says one of the smartest of those Buffett-watchers, hedge-fund manager Jeff Matthews, the author of "Pilgrimage to Warren Buffett's Omaha."

Buffett's $44 billion bet on a railroad--the biggest bet of his career--is a long-term play on economic recovery and, possibly, global warming.  And it includes a nice potential option in the form of 32,000 miles of rights-of-way that could eventually form the backbone of a nationwide broadband network.

Buffett's Burlington bet probably won't earn the same eye-popping returns of some of his earlier investments, says Matthews, founder of Ram Partners and author of the popular blog, Jeff Matthews Is Not Making This Up.  He paid (relatively) a lot for it, and railroads aren't a major growth business.

But considering Buffett's desire to put a massive amount of money to work and earn a decent return, this seems like a typically smart play.

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From The Business Insider, Nov. 3, 2009:

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) is making a big rail buy, acquiring Burlington Northern (BNI) for $100 per share or about $44 billion. The deal is the largest in Berkshire's history.

Shares of Burlington Northern had been trading around $76, so shareholders are getting a fat 30% premium.

Berkshire already owned over 20% of the company.

From the release:

“Our country’s future prosperity depends on its having an efficient and well-maintained rail system,” said Warren E. Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway chairman and chief executive officer. “Conversely, America must grow and prosper for railroads to do well. Berkshire’s $34 billion investment in BNSF is a huge bet on that company, CEO Matt Rose and his team, and the railroad industry.

“Most important of all, however, it’s an all-in wager on the economic future of the United States,” said Mr. Buffett. “I love these bets.”

Click here to view the full news release.

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