Tuesday, December 29, 2009, 4:11AM ET - U.S. Markets open in 5 hours and 19 minutes.
Rewind to Inauguration Day in January. President-elect Obama ushered in a new administration with much fanfare and hope for C-H-A-N-G-E. Now 12 months later, it's business as usual. Take a trip down memory lane as we recall some of the highlights (and lowlights) of 2009 in the accompanying clip.
We have a problem with that! Enormous bonus payouts for executives. Toxic, dangerous assets that remain on banks' balance sheets. The same executives running firms they took to the brink with risky investment choices. The "too big to fail" institutions took the global economy to the precipice -- but were saved with hefty rescue packages thanks to American taxpayers -- are now bigger than ever.
As summarized by one of our most popular Tech Ticker guests Howard Davidowitz, "I have a problem with that!" So do many Americans as populist outrage rises.
In fact, it's anything but business as usual for American workers who are grappling with 10% unemployment -- the highest level in 26 years -- and no guarantee the economic bottom is in place for 2010.
While the $787 billion stimulus package has yet to filter down to local communities, it's no wonder Americans are asking: "Where's MY bailout?"...
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For savvy investors, shorting the dollar and being long commodities proved to be smart strategy for most of the decade. But is this party ending as the aughts give way to the 2010s?
Commodity prices will move sideways next year, forecasts Nariman Behravesh, chief economist for IHS Global Insight. "The markets have gotten a little ahead of themselves" and prices have retreated. "But they're not going to collapse because there's still some underlying demand there," he tells Aaron and Henry.
Outlook for oil prices. For the beginning of 2010, Behravesh expects softening commodity prices, including oil. He sees crude trading in the $65/barrel range. Oil recently was trading around $76/barrel, down from $80/barrel this fall. (Oil prices had tumbled to as low as $33/barrel a year ago.) Prices should tick up as the global economy gains momentum in the second half of the year.
Go for gold and the dollar? Seemingly everyone's favorite commodity gold has also been falling, retreating recently to November lows. Behravesh thinks gold will follow the same pattern as oil...
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Weakness among financials has given bears plenty of fodder to declare: That's it. The rally finally is over.
Don't throw in the towel, says our guest Charles Lemonides, chief investment officer at ValueWorks. Just don't expect financial stocks to lead the next leg of the rally. "I don't think the group that gave you leadership last time is the group that's going to give you leadership next time," Lemonides tells Henry in the accompanying clip.
Sectors he's focused on include technology (such as HP), pharmaceuticals and big industrials such as Boeing, 3M and Dow Chemical. "We have money put to work in all of those places," he says.
Another key sector to watch: natural gas. Current prices, even after a recent rally, are still more than 50% below their highs. Lemonides thinks that's likely to change thanks to Exxon Mobil. The oil giant recently purchased XTO Energy, placing a $31 billion bet on natural gas. "The biggest oil company, arguably, is now switching teams and I think is going to work very hard to promote natural gas use in the United States," he says.
Click "more" to get Lemonides take on health-care legislation's effect on pharma, and what the natural gas boom could mean for domestic growth and jobs.
» MoreBerkshire Hathaway's search for a potential successor continues as questions persist: Can the insurance/investing giant duplicate its past success without the legendary Warren Buffett at the helm? There's also a question of whether Buffett himself can replicate his incredible performance now that Berkshire has grown so dramatically.
"Berkshire is not necessarily a bad investment [but] it's a lumbering giant right now," says our guest James Altucher, managing partner of Formula Capital.
That's why Altucher recommends a number of alternatives to the insurance/investing business model -- chiefly Markel (MKL) based in Virginia. Like Berkshire Hathaway, Markel is in the property and casualty insurance business. Premiums in turn are used to invest.
And just like Berkshire, Markel focuses on investing in tactile businesses like Pool Corp. (POOL), Home Depot (HD), and CarMax (KMX). Oh, and teeth. More accurately, Patterson Companies (PDCO) and Dentsply (XRAY), which both make dental equipment.
The investment selection reflects Markel's chief investment officer, Thomas Gayner. While not nearly as famous as Buffett, Gayner invests with a similar value approach and has produced an enviable track record: annual returns of 14% in the past 10 years vs. a flat performance for the S&P 500.
As Altucher tells Aaron in the accompanying video, Markel indeed may be the new Berkshire. Click "more" to embed the video.
» MoreWith markets still rallying from March lows, it's easy to wonder if the window is closed for investors who've been waiting on the sidelines.
Not so says our guest, Lynn Tilton, founder and CEO of Patriarch Partners, a private equity fund with more than $7 billion under management. The fund focuses on distressed assets. With the recession in full swing, there are plenty of businesses and name brands available at affordable prices.
"We're seeing a tremendous opportunity in companies that have got beaten down," Tilton tells Aaron. "Buy for the long term."
For example, Patriarch recently acquired a majority stake in Dura Automotive. Beyond the auto-parts sector, she's interested in beauty products and boat companies.
"I figure if I can add up all the boys' toys before I die, I win," Tilton says.
She's also bullish on gold, which she began buying in the summer of 2007. Unsure if the banking sector was going survive the crisis, Tilton says she hoarded gold to ensure she could pay her employees.
Click "more" to get Tilton's long-term view on gold and the global economy; and to embed the video.
» MoreGoogle and Apple are locked in a battle to become the "platform" upon which most future mobile applications are built.
So far, Apple has a big lead in this market--the integrated software and hardware iPhone dominates third-party mobile apps--but Google's strategy of giving software away for free to handset makers could allow the company to provide some serious competition. The latter strategy, after all, is the one Microsoft used in the late 80s and early 90s to take share away from Apple, which then, as ever, was building integrated hardware and software devices.
But now Google appears to have changed its strategy, trying to have it both ways.
Over the weekend, Google confirmed that it is producing integrated hardware and software phones. Specifically, it confirmed that it has distributed an Android-based phone to employees for them to provide feedback, presumably before selling the phone to actual consumers.
Plenty of questions remain...
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» MoreFrom The Business Insider, Dec. 9, 2009:

1. Wind N’ Go Freedom Shaver
The Wind N’ Go Freedom Shaver is powered by cranking a plastic handle for a full minute, which provides enough power for one shave. If you're too lazy to shave using a razor, the last thing you're going to add to your morning routine is sixty seconds of winding to charge up your environmentally friendly gadget. Replacement blades and foils sold seperataly.

2. Tweet-a-Watt
The Tweet-a-Watt starter pack is a system that lets you share your energy-saving successes with the entire Twitter community, because people want to know exactly how much you can brag about living green. Just make sure you already own a Kill-a-Watt power monitoring system and be prepared for some serious DIY action. Setting this up requires taking the Kill-a-Watt apart and attaching the Tweet-a-Watt's various capacitors and resistors and things.
3. Mode Premium All-In-One Recycling Center
Even though you're already recycling, you might still want to fork up $270 for the Mode Premium All-In-One Recycling Center, a bulky device that keeps all your paper, plastic, glass and metal in one unit. Sure it holds very few recycling products, but at least it comes with a carbon filter for odor control.

4. Bedol Water-Powered Clock
The Bedol Water-Powered Clock runs on a combination of water and lemon juice, and that's cool, but a cheap gadget you have to "refill" every six weeks that saves a negligible amount of energy is a little ridiculous. Especially considering there's no alarm on this model. The water-powered clock with an alarm will cost you $29.
5. Eton Solar Link Radio
Another wind-up gadget, the Eton Solar Link Radio, a clock/radio with USB cell phone charger connectors, is supposedly for "emergencies," just so long as they don't involve rain (it's not waterproof). It is sun-friendly, but to run on solar power it takes a whole day of direct sun light for a few hours of operation. Not recommended: owning more than one gadget that requires cranking a flimsy plastic knob to charge...
See more from The Business Insider:
Click "more" to view the rest of the list.
» MoreEmerging markets and commodities were among the biggest ETF winners this year. Problem is, many investors are still spooked by the market's upheaval in 2008 and early 2009, and sitting on the sidelines, despite the run up since March.
"Right now, the average investor doesn't feel real good about the markets here in the States and don’t even know a lot about the markets overseas," says our guest, Tom Lydon, president of Global Trends Investments, and editor of ETF Trends. "The sad thing is most investors here in the States don’t have enough exposure to emerging markets."
That's true, Lydon says, even though the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (EEM) and Vanguard Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) are each up about 100% since March 9.
The concern is ETF inflows will mirror mutual fund flows -- with investors chasing performance and ultimately riding down the once "hot" assets. "Most investors buy when they feel real good about it," Lydon cautions.
So is the emerging market bubble about to burst? ...
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» MoreBut the financial news wasn't all bad in 2009 and we also have a list of top-searched "market darlings," including Facebook, Twitter and the iPhone.
Henry and Aaron discuss these and other top financial search terms of 2009 in the accompanying video
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Retail analyst Howard Davidowitz debuted on our show in February and declared the American consumer is toast, and that the U.S. standard of living is permanently changed. One of Tech Ticker's most popular guests ever, Davidowitz lit up our message boards.
With unemployment at 10.2% -- a 26-year high -- and Americans saving more and spending less, Howard, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, remains bearish on the consumer. But not all retailers are created equal. In a fierce game of survival of the fittest, the most cost-effective, creative and nimble retailers are actually gaining market share in a weakened economy. Among the "gold standard" retail winners:
Kohl's (KSS): A low cost-to-run leader that's able to offer quality merchandise at lower prices.
Dollar Tree (DLTR): With $1 goods, the chain is so profitable new stores operate in the black right out of the gate.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY): With competitor Linens N Things out of business, the retailer of home merchandise is gaining strength.
Wal-Mart (WMT): You know the story here. But now the behemoth is putting traditional food retailers out of business, too.
Amazon.com (AMZN): Shares of the online retailer hit an all-time high Monday as consumers turn to online shopping for bargain hunting and price-comparison shopping. Plus with no costs associated with running physicals stores, Amazon can compete with giant Wal-Mart.
And the retail losers? Sales trends so far aren't looking good for the luxury sector such as jewelry stores. While Tiffany's (TIF) recently topped analysts' profit forecasts for the third quarter, some-store sales fell 6%. (Quarterly profits were helped by overseas sales and cost cutting.) Longer term, Tiffany's needs to reassess its revenue model, Davidowitz says.
Click "more" to embed the video.» More| BAC | 15.29 | 0.00 |
| C | 3.39 | 0.00 |
| FNM | 1.27 | 0.00 |
| FRE | 1.60 | 0.00 |
| SPY | 112.72 | 0.00 |
| CNF.A… | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| CVX | 77.77 | 0.00 |
| HVWBX | 8.79 | 0.03 |
| MER | 11.78 | 0.00 |
| ONXS | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| RIGS | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| SLDIX | 3.53 | 0.01 |
| SRZ | 3.51 | 0.00 |
| T | 28.33 | 0.00 |
| USVAX | 10.91 | -0.01 |
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