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He Called the Peak in Oil, Now Bleier Sees $50 Crude in Early '09

Posted Oct 23, 2008 11:58am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities

"The commodity trade is over...oil is going to $100 per barrel."

Or so declared Scott Bleier, president of CreateCapital.com, on July 18. What sounded like an outrageous prediction then turned out to be too conservative as commodities, led by oil and gold, have crashed.

Today, Bleier predicts oil will fall to as low as $50 a barrel in early 2009, and, short of turning off the spigots entirely, he doesn't think OPEC -- which is meeting in Vienna this week -- can do much about it.

"There was too much money allocated" to commodities and now "that trade is coming unwound," he said, reiterating a prior view that speculation (vs. fundamentals) was entirely responsible for the rally -- or at least its final phase earlier this year.

As for commodity-related stocks, like Exxon, Freeport-McMoran and Potash, Bleier thinks they're likely to bounce in conjunction with the broader market as those same hedge funds seek to salvage what has been an abysmal year, to date. Long-term investors would be wise to sell on any such bounce, he adds.

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197 Comments

a
a - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:13PM EDT

1

sportsmadness
sportsmadness - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:13PM EDT

Someone please give me toothpicks to keep my eyes open during this boring analysis of the oil situation. What an idiot. The only person I've heard make any sense was a third party presidential candidate mention oil exploration and developement of Utah and Alaska's ANWAR area which is by the way the size of a dime on a 9 X 10 carpet. . Lets do something about and stop drooling over other countries oil commodities.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:14PM EDT

No this is more like 74-75, we still have 79-80 to come. We need a deflation scare so no one builds any infra in oil and energy, and when things turn up again in several years (not in US, but Asia), oil inflation is going to go through the roof.

monk man
monk man - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:14PM EDT

So much for supply and demand setting the price. I hope socialism er wall street gets leveled

culcuhain
culcuhain - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:15PM EDT

so unconservatively...oil will be 30-40 pb I like it when OPEC whines

Smooth Nick Apollo
Smooth Nick Apollo - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:16PM EDT

I'm sure President Obama will get all the credit too, even though his liberal wacko buddies did everything they could to keep oil expensive (see ANWAR, offshore drilling). How anyone votes democrat is beyond me. The biggest myth in this country is how they are for the "little guy". They keep taxes high and fuel expensive. How is that helping the little guy?

Smooth Nick Apollo
Smooth Nick Apollo - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:18PM EDT

I'm sure President Obama will get all the credit too, even though his liberal wacko buddies did everything they could to keep oil expensive (see ANWAR, offshore drilling). How anyone votes democrat is beyond me. The biggest myth in this country is how they are for the "little guy". They keep taxes high and fuel expensive. How is that helping the little guy?

eNewss
eNewss - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:21PM EDT

When will i be quoted? Searc for 'spike theory' quotes removed in google and you will see my article first. http://enewss.wordpress.com/2008/05/10/super-spike-theory-from-goldman-sachs-oil-to-250-its-a-sham/ http://enewss.wordpress.com/2008/09/03/super-spike-theory-continues-to-puke/ Thanks sri

Bourbon King
Bourbon King - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:22PM EDT

I haven't read, seen, or heard ANY analysis explaining how OIL jumped from $60 range all the way up to $147 in May of '08 when pretty much everyone acknowledges that the demand did not warrant it YET the same "see, speak, hear no evil" experts claim that speculation was only part of the reason. Bleh!`

RobinS
RobinS - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:22PM EDT

Let the oil keep going down! We need $45 oil on a PERMANENT basis. The public has been taken advantage of for way too long! If you have stock in oil, find another way to make money instead of skimming every $ you can get on fuel.

Josh B
Josh B - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:22PM EDT

???

RobinS
RobinS - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:23PM EDT

Let the oil keep going down! We need $45 oil on a PERMANENT basis. The public has been taken advantage of for way too long! If you have stock in oil, find another way to make money instead of skimming every $ you can get on fuel.

Jim
Jim - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:24PM EDT

Now the idiot is short oil. He was long. The SEC should kill him.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:30PM EDT

Toothpicks, Hell you need a shot of cocaine! These D bags miss more than the kansas city chiefs defense. Oil is going to tank so low that big oil will have thier hand out like the rest, just wait and see

WC
WC - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:33PM EDT

A sustained $50/barrel crude oil price will have a negative.lasting impact. Anybody who knows the business understands this is a capital intensive business to replace depleting supplies and, if possible, grow with demand. Alternative energies aren't going to significant impact on this for 10-30 years, and then only a limited impact. Meanwhile $50/barrel does not fund replacement costs and so oil investments will drop according. The supply has very low growth elasticity but price is all that checks demand. That means in 5-10 years when those investments need to generate results we are going to see energy cost inflation that will dwarf what happened in the last 2 years. The oil market needs to stabilize somewhere in the $80-$90 range to prevent that.

carlos
carlos - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:34PM EDT

hello all of you, we need to look for new sources of energy, save on gas and stop buying oil form iran and venezuela. Iran and venezuela are promoting terrorism and narcotrafic with the money that we are paying them,We need to do whatever it takes , so they dont get our money anymore.They are laughing at us because they kill us with our own money, that we pay them for theirs dirty oil, Lets go solar, wind ,electric,atomic and create jobs at home by producing our own energy.THIS IS VERY SIMPLE, LETS DO IT!!!!!

brando97
brando97 - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:36PM EDT

OIl prices will go down as long as this current economic crisis persists but as soon as the North American economoy shows signs of improvement oil prices will rise accordingly. Unless we develop our own sources of energy, oil prices will be linked to this economy. We have had far too many years without any economic policies and no energy policies to speak of. You cannot leave the oil companies to manage themselves. It is exactly like the banking and mortgage industry. For national security reasons we need a strong energy policy that promotes USA exploration, development of alternative energy sources within Norht America and demands accountability.

charlotteboy
charlotteboy - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:36PM EDT

oil supply/demand is obviously not the drive the uptick in oil as the demand for oil has not been cut in 1/2 since july.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:36PM EDT

We the U.S. dont want to drill for oil here for one reason. When the rest of the world runs out. We will have stuff left to monopolize the world. Think about our U.S. history, and this rational makes perfect sense.

JetMan
JetMan - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:37PM EDT

SmoothNick...People vote demoncratic because they WANT the gov't to take care of them.They don't feel they can make it on their own, partly becuase the gov't TELLS them they can't. This dependent-mentality is good for the democratic party as it helps it grow as more rely upon it. Bad for busineess, but hey, businesses are evil and should be taxed, remember?

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