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He Called the Peak in Oil, Now Bleier Sees $50 Crude in Early '09

Posted Oct 23, 2008 11:58am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities

"The commodity trade is over...oil is going to $100 per barrel."

Or so declared Scott Bleier, president of CreateCapital.com, on July 18. What sounded like an outrageous prediction then turned out to be too conservative as commodities, led by oil and gold, have crashed.

Today, Bleier predicts oil will fall to as low as $50 a barrel in early 2009, and, short of turning off the spigots entirely, he doesn't think OPEC -- which is meeting in Vienna this week -- can do much about it.

"There was too much money allocated" to commodities and now "that trade is coming unwound," he said, reiterating a prior view that speculation (vs. fundamentals) was entirely responsible for the rally -- or at least its final phase earlier this year.

As for commodity-related stocks, like Exxon, Freeport-McMoran and Potash, Bleier thinks they're likely to bounce in conjunction with the broader market as those same hedge funds seek to salvage what has been an abysmal year, to date. Long-term investors would be wise to sell on any such bounce, he adds.

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197 Comments

Brian's Herpe
Brian's Herpe - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:37PM EDT

Smooth-Nick-Appollo You're right Smooth how can anyone vote Democratic these days. These past eight years have been awesome!!!!!!

Michael
Michael - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:37PM EDT

You can thank George Bush for the low oil prices! Way to go George! It was his plan all along. He figured if he destroyed our economy and we couldn't afford a house or car oil would have to drop!!!! Man this guy is a genius. I'm sure his plan to stop the war is world destruction. Hay, if no one is alive to fight the war has to end, Right?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:39PM EDT

I work the oil market and I,ve got to say EVERYONE called for $100 crude so what !! The price will settle down as long as dollar stays strong and OPEC can offset lower prodution with profits coming from stronger dollar. They've set in motion a lot of projects that cannot be abandoned and they will pump regardless of what other producers do. They trust each other less than we do!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:39PM EDT

Hey Smooth Nick Apollo, stop injecting politics into economic affairs, if you are objective, ask yourself under who's watch did all this commodities inflation and excessive credit leverage occur? BUSH CHENEY SOUND FAMILIAR ? Wake up and smell the coffee -- the Bush family is not crying poverty and facing foreclosures. Look in the mirror. We need a breath of fresh air and a new start for our country or we will all lose.

JetMan
JetMan - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:39PM EDT

Dunguecito...yes, they are laughing at us for paying for the ammunition they want to use against us. You are spot on mate!

xanadu
xanadu - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:44PM EDT

This Bleier guy reminds me of that old Monty Python jingle: dee dee dee, dee dee dee, DUMB DUMB DUMB. This guy doesn't have any better clue than Cramer. This ain't the 80s and the commodity play isn't about to enter a perma bear market.

eNewss
eNewss - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:44PM EDT

Hey, not to mention that Iran, venezuela, Russia may go bankrupt, because they have all expanded their spending in the belief that high oil prices are here to stay. sri

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:44PM EDT

The "Hot Commodity" may be fading fast, but I think the American people's memory of this past's ramp up to $140 pb will linger - particularly when they had to forego a trip to Grandma this year and now she's dead. Or, they had to decide between getting their kids' teeth fixed or keep the old clunker fueled up to go to their low paying job that barely keeps food on the table. I've got nothing against people making money in all of these financials, but the sheer greed and testosterone fueled atta boy attitudes has gotten old. I don't care if people make their own fuel out of turkey carcasses, the time has come for a lasting back-lash against these greedy you know whats.

Arturo
Arturo - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:46PM EDT

What about Natural Gas prices?

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:48PM EDT

Had to come down.....thank goodness!

Jeff
Jeff - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:48PM EDT

How can oil stay low when the Fed and gov't are pumping about a trillion dollars into the economy. When you dilute the value of the dollar that much, a product priced in dollars, oil, must rise in price.

- Thursday October 23, 2008 12:50PM EDT

Dear Dave/#2 Post Wake up idiot. This guy nailed this BS market.

Stephen
Stephen - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:53PM EDT

"They keep taxes high and fuel expensive. " oh yeah you're right. democrats are 'bad' people. republicans want to make you happy by giving you all your tax money back and buying you a puppy. Running huge deficits and deferring the actual costs of things to your children is certainly fiscally responsible behavior. so is being addicted to cheap oil so that you can drive your chevy avalanche around. Will the US waste another 30 by not bothering to develop alternative energy souces, so that 30 years from now we repeat this cycle for the third time? why don't you wake up and stop spouting all of that pop-culture so-called "conservative " drivel about the "liberals" being the cause of all of america's ills. If you or anyone else had any sense they'd see that the US must stop taking the quick fix and start solving the problems that are at heart of the issues here. the problem with people who think like this is that you just don't want to hear the truth which is that as a country we need to buck up and make some sacrifices before we can have prosperity. You can't just ride the gravy train with no ticket. keeping gas prices artificially low and finanacially mortgaging the USA's future to foreign interests just so you can have your supposedly "low taxes" is not helping the little guy, nor the big guy for that matter. and that's exactly what's been happening. There needs to be a sea change in the way the nation conducts its business, because frankly its deplorable. I have no idea if the dem ticket will be able to do much about this situation, but if you think the republican ticket will then you are woefully misguided.

Michael
Michael - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:53PM EDT

Commodities are done. All you "smart" guys that listen to AM radio and bought gold to "protect your financial future", are now taking a bath. SELL, SELL, SELL. Gold, like oil, bonds and currency, are all just vehicles to ride up as other things fall. The trick is to get off of the "up" escalator before it starts going down and then find a new one to ride up. Dollars look good now, so sell your gold, silver and oil, and get cash rich. The equity bottom is comin' soon! Ready to jump in head first for the next five-year bull market?

kim
kim - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:53PM EDT

Come on guys give Scott a break. He was the only one telling the truth in July when oil hit 147 a barrel, and when all those douch-bags at Goldman Sachs were saying oil is going to 200 a barrel. He called it exactly right when he explained how gross was the disconnect between supply and demand. All those smucks that were saying 'peak oil-- boom times in Asia-- don't blame us speculators" were trying to jawboning the market even higher. Greedy lying bastards who would love for the public to accept 150 dollar oil as an acceptable reality were exposed by Scott Bleier. Dave this man is a genius with balls to tell it like it is!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:53PM EDT

I agree with NotEasilySwayed. When will the "EXPERTS" stop talking about the downward spiral that oil is on, and start talking about why it spiked in the first place? I remember one oil giant higher-up say that it is falling way too fast, and that the fall is unwarranted. But ask why it went up, and they will tell you it's just the market. Now that the so called "market" has slowed, they think the drop in price is a horrible thing. Same with OPEC. They didn't complain when oil was $60 p/b in the near past, but now that it isn't at $147, they say that it should be. What a load of crap we're being fed. With the government stepping into everything else, they should put some extra taxes on Big Oil as well as the people who drive up the price. (these are my own made up numbers just for arguments sake) Say when oil is at $50 p/b, put a 1% tax on every dollar made on trading oil, or selling it. For every dollar in price it goes up, add another 1%. So if Big Oil, traders or OPEC want it to sit at $90 p/b, the government should charge them 40% tax on it. Therefore, for every $90 they make, they pay $36 in tax, reducing their profit to only $54. Anything over $100 p/b, and they are then actually loosing money from the tax. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't. But something has to be done so that the same run up doesn't happen in 5 years.

- Thursday October 23, 2008 12:54PM EDT

A democrat problem?????? Bush and his boys have held the leash for the past 8 years. Smooth Nick, Pull your head out of your _ _ _!

Mickey
Mickey - Thursday October 23, 2008 12:56PM EDT

Obama and his communist buddies will wreck our economy, so who gives a crap as to what happens down the road. I am just glad that I am 73 and won't be around to see the mess he and his liberal Supreme Court idiots create!. My grandsons can hate their daddy for being a liberal fool and voting for Obama. They are the ones who will get cheated out of their rightful inheritance, as the liberals will have confiscated it.

Mark
Mark - Thursday October 23, 2008 01:01PM EDT

Smooth Nick Apollo, You must be brain dead like the rest of the &*^* Republicans. The Republicans put us into this financial mess, because of all the lifting of the constraints of lending, when they new it couldn't hold up. That's what we need "McClain" so we will lose the rest of our money, and then McCain, Bush, and Cheney will go laughing to the bank you stupid moron. How many more years do you need to get the idea, that the republicans are killing this country-dillweed!!!

Gijsbert
Gijsbert - Thursday October 23, 2008 01:02PM EDT

Wake up people....irrationality on the way up means the same for the way down. It's easy to say we'll hit 50 now that we sit at 65. How does 20 bucks sound. Some proportional integral derivative can be applied.

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