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Wild Market: Sign of a Major Hedge Fund Blowup?

Posted Oct 24, 2008 11:09am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities

Once the new kings of Wall Street, hedge funds are now looking like the court jester.

It's all speculation at this point, but it seems highly likely we'll find out that one or more major hedge funds imploded this week, especially given the dramatic moves in currencies, commodities and emerging markets.

Wild swings in the markets most frequented by speculators are "only the result of imploding hedge funds leading to massive liquidations," writes Ashraf Laidi, Chief FX Strategist at CMC Markets. (Laidi declined to name names.)

Other than John Paulson, whose funds are up 15% to 25% this year, the WSJ says, it's been a brutal year for hedge funds, including many well-respected names, as the Times U.K. reports:

  • Investors redeemed about $31 billion of global hedge fund assets in the third quarter and a further $179 billion was wiped off the value of their holdings by falling markets, according to Hedge Fund Research.
  • Hedge funds lost 4.6% in September, according to EurekaHedge, another research firm, which said that the investment class was on course to post annual losses for the first time since 1998.
  • Several legendary funds have suffered heavily this year, including Toscafund, which is down 55% year to date, and Citadel, which has lost an estimated 27%.

While few tears are being shed for the "pirates of finance", forced selling by hedge funds is having a direct affect on the portfolios of "average" investors, especially those overweight emerging markets and commodities.

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247 Comments

Reedersong
Reedersong - Friday October 24, 2008 11:25AM EDT

Screw it!! Let's crack open some beers...We got the World Series, NFL, College Football, and Halloween!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 24, 2008 11:27AM EDT

How can one man like Greenspan be vested with so much power for so long with NO OVERSIGHT. Congressmen were in no position to question his assessments. Nevertheless the markets chugged along on the premise of self-regulation. In reality it was a racket to which Greenspan and countless others turned a blind eye to it. It cannot be that G (is that for God or Greenspan?) could not have seen what was coming. I say the only solution to this problem is to elect the PomPom girl Sarah, who doesn't even know how much stringent regulations are required for her lipstick, but when it comes to the finance world - hey it's laissez faire all the way.....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 24, 2008 11:27AM EDT

You mean, leveraging 100:1 isn't such a good idea? We are truly surrounded by homicidal idiots.

Bio Diesel
Bio Diesel - Friday October 24, 2008 11:31AM EDT

Let them drown!!! If the "average" investor would have used "average" investment sense then they won't have even been is this inflated market. Investors should return to sound investment models and learn terms like P/E ratio. Hopefully flavor of the month investing by the little guy will stop. Stop voting for LAWYERS to congress and elect someone who actually understands economics and accounting. So we can stop the obvious destruction of American commerce by the past and current Rejecticans and Demoncrats. America needs sound money, less federal government, and stronger states. Like it was when we started this republic.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 24, 2008 11:32AM EDT

Think about it, we have all these financial experts in Universities and Government, and not one of them can figure out what is going on or what we should do. They are going back to basics and trying to figure out how to value the house of cards and they can't!!!! This is why the market continues to plummet day after day, as little by little they begin to understand it is a house of cards, smoke and mirrors, and the US economy is virtually worth at best 10 cents on the dollar. Hence, DOW 14000 will end up being DOW 1400. Face it, we lived in a dream world of easy money and it is coming to an end!! The credit card dream world doesn't work. You can't have an economy that is based 95% on people spending money they don't have and may never have. If just the guru's in the universities and government understood this!

GeorgeK
GeorgeK - Friday October 24, 2008 11:35AM EDT

This is unlike anything before because so much was built on now evaporated "Housing Equity". This was not a problem in the Great Depression. Until Housing is fixed the Stock Market is going to be a roller coaster and the PEOPLE are going to get more angry. Now the Banks are using the TARP money to buy other Banks, that money was presented to go to Main Street to Slow Forclosures. SOME BODY LIED. I did not want to make PNC bigger or Rape the Stock holders of National City Bank. This is very close to breaking.

Janet P.
Janet P. - Friday October 24, 2008 11:36AM EDT

Thank goodness I am old enough to have seen this one coming. I also warned everyone that I knew that had a foot in the market. Many people will have to begin to live within their means, (Gasp!!) As my father and mother who lived through the Great Depression always said, "The secret to success is spending less than you make". The idea of "Hedge Funds" is quite foreign too me. Trying to make a quick buck can be disastrous. Hard lessons are being learned as we speak.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 24, 2008 11:36AM EDT

Think about it, we have all these financial experts in Universities and Government, and not one of them can figure out what is going on or what we should do. They are going back to basics and trying to figure out how to value the house of cards and they can't!!!! This is why the market continues to plummet day after day, as little by little they begin to understand it is a house of cards, smoke and mirrors, and the US economy is virtually worth at best 10 cents on the dollar. Hence, DOW 14000 will end up being DOW 1400. Face it, we lived in a dream world of easy money and it is coming to an end!! The credit card dream world doesn't work. You can't have an economy that is based 95% on people spending money they don't have and may never have. If just the guru's in the universities and government understood this!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 24, 2008 11:36AM EDT

Think about it, we have all these financial experts in Universities and Government, and not one of them can figure out what is going on or what we should do. They are going back to basics and trying to figure out how to value the house of cards and they can't!!!! This is why the market continues to plummet day after day, as little by little they begin to understand it is a house of cards, smoke and mirrors, and the US economy is virtually worth at best 10 cents on the dollar. Hence, DOW 14000 will end up being DOW 1400. Face it, we lived in a dream world of easy money and it is coming to an end!! The credit card dream world doesn't work. You can't have an economy that is based 95% on people spending money they don't have and may never have. If just the guru's in the universities and government understood this!

Brian
Brian - Friday October 24, 2008 11:38AM EDT

They get what they deserve.

MO
MO - Friday October 24, 2008 11:39AM EDT

I'll agree with this except for spelling. (as if I have nothing bigger to worry about) You wrote, "I say the only solution to this problem is to elect the PomPom (sp) girl Sarah, who doesn't even know how much stringent regulations are required for her lipstick, but when it comes to the finance world - hey it's laissez faire all the way....."

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 24, 2008 11:40AM EDT

If the Hedge fund managers have decided their best course of action is to sell now and take a 50% loss, this should tell you where we are! And once this contagion spreads it will be a bank run on the stock market. In fact, the stock market bank run began about a month ago. I expect market flight to continue till we hit 10 cents on the dollar, roughtly DOW 1400.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 24, 2008 11:41AM EDT

I Agree with the previous post - excess and to me GREED in recent years has been what the hedge funds market is all about. Now they're getting a dose of reality.Unfortunately the rest of us will have to take some hits too, and it'll take some time but sound stocks will recover. Speaking of greed - kindly give a listen to a song my band wrote called 'Greed' , it's on our website www.myspace.com/dosareality. thanks.

Ronni
Ronni - Friday October 24, 2008 11:41AM EDT

The South Sea bubble in England in the early 1700's, when speculators drove prices bond 's up and then it all burst, was the result of aggressive greed. It's part of human nature to want more, to be greedy. But, incredibly, human nature wasn't part of Alan Greenspan's model. Self regulation seemed to work fine. I do, however, congratulate Mr. Greenspan for admitting his error, Other idiots like Chris Cox are just pathetic as they try to escape responsibility.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 24, 2008 11:43AM EDT

"Thar she blows!"

redman
redman - Friday October 24, 2008 11:45AM EDT

I totally agree with "reedersong". It's Friday and we made it through another gut-wrenching week. So down here in Mexico my new philosophy is to have 1 tequila for every 100 point drop in the Dow! (or is that the Down-Jones?).

Jonathan D
Jonathan D - Friday October 24, 2008 11:45AM EDT

They bid them up they sell them off. You people need to get a grip and stop trying to substitute simple rational behavior with emotions like greed. Markets exist because people are always willing to take sides and bet money on it. The losers aren't victims and the winners aren't evil. The losers would gladly trade places with the winners so that makes the trade even. So get over it or leave your money in your mattress. The markets are for grownups and investing means taking risk.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday October 24, 2008 11:46AM EDT

Everyone should be moving their money to CREDIT UNIONS instead of banks! These banks are just going to use the bailout money to pay themselves bonuses this year and they have not eased up on lending to businesses...

RIZZLE
RIZZLE - Friday October 24, 2008 11:47AM EDT

once again - the bad guys are as bad as we thought. and invisible. there should be a police force to track them down one nyc office by one and punish them. maybe it will stick in the minds of the next thief magicians before they find new ways to exploit the world.

NeilM
NeilM - Friday October 24, 2008 11:49AM EDT

People are getting hysterical. Its just another crash, just another recession. As to those who believe we cannot live in a credit economy we can and do.Fractional banking originated in the middle ages. All that's required is some tightening up of bank regulations (done multinationally) and some tightening of lending criteria. growth rates would come down to be more at traditional rates, steadier rates, and we can carry on. We recovered from the great depression and numerous other bubbles and manias and we can handle this one.

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