Tuesday, December 1, 2009, 8:55PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates later today; the only real question is by how much. Perhaps a better question is whether rate cuts will do any good in the short term, and what kind of long-term affect they will have on the economy.
Short term, it's important to note the effective fed funds rate -- meaning actual overnight lending rates -- has been below 1% since Oct. 10.
"The Fed is trying to lean against the decline in velocity [of money supply] -- which is essentially the same thing as a rise in the demand for money -- by expanding its balance sheet aggressively and allowing the Fed funds rate to trade well below the 1.5% target," writes Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners.
In other words, today's rate cut is a formality, codifying what the Fed is already allowing (and promoting) in the open market.
Beyond such technical considerations, the Fed's goal today -- and with its recent series of rate cuts and other extraordinary actions -- is to restore confidence so that banks will lend, consumers will borrow and speculators will take risks again.
The Fed is likely to have more success with the short-term speculators, and the past 24 hours have shown the impact rate cuts (both here and abroad) can have on market psychology.
So far at least, the Fed (and Treasury) have had less success in restoring confidence. "Pushing on a string" is the term often used to describe a central bank that can't get economic activity to respond -- no matter how aggressively it acts -- because sentiment is so fragile, not to mention the banking system.
There are three likely long-term outcomes to such a scenario, and only one of them is particularly hopeful -- kinda like what coaching legend Woody Hayes said about passing the football: "Only three things can happen, and two of them are bad."
Someone please find some dirt on Bernanke so he will step down. I'll start one ... He played with dolls during his childhood.
THE FED CUTS INTEREST RATE BY 2 POINTS. Ok so, let's say this was actually true. Does it really change anything? Companies are still posting 3 qtr losses, consumer confidence is what it was yesterday, foreclosures are still on the market and layoffs are still happening as we read this. So, we may get a 500 pt. rally in the market today. That just means that tomorrow is going to be another sellers market. VOLATILITY IS HERE TO STAY FOR A WHILE.
Isn't this exactly what the Fed did during the great depression. Lean the Money Supply, and lower the interest rate. Less tangible money means people are further enslaved in credit. Lower interest rates run up inflation. Good luck to the gold diggers. It's easier to get a camel through the eye of a needle......
By cutting rates,It will be a temporary rally for speculators.Then back to sliding downwards.What happens when the fed cuts rates to zero?I guess then we will all come to the conclusion,that Bernanke does not know what the "hell" he or Paulson are doing! A true test of economic "intelligence"!
Bernanke (alias Beavis) and Paulson (alias Butthead). I think that just about sums it up.
This rate cut is having, and will have, it’s intended effect: That is, to drive the markets insanely high, then bring them abruptly back, and lower, with a huge wave of selling.
Why not cut the interest bank charges........But do not abuse it.....no credit no loan to those had a bad credits.........No.........more abusive Banks managers ....no more greed, no more easy lending,.......Lending is for good companies and individual only..... Sorry, bad creditor and debtor it is better to survive this time than to sink in the bottom fit that no recourse of recovery......No more abuse from all credit companies and its cohorts.
.25 point is my guess, so they'll have some room.
They can't cut below zero. What happens when they have no room to cut? Saving is more important then borrowing and spending. Inflation with the fed throwing money at every conceivable target is a back hole, waiting. Remember the money they are spreading about belongs to you and your grandkids.
Interest cut yes.....and YES........But no mre for bad debtor and bad creditor........No GHOST Debtor And GHOST CREDITOR:::::Does who can not afford close the door......-...That is the only way to Discipline the Bankers and Other Abusive Financial Institution.......NO GREED
Can someone explain to me why we gave these lenders billions with no strings attached? Pushing on a string? There are no strings! It was "here, take all this money, pleeeease?" "And, please share it, please...?"
juist another 5000 pts up and this time I'm bailing out. Come to papa baby come to papa !!!
onestopbookshop1, the length and depth of The Great Depression was deepened by the Federal Reserve when it initially responded by increasing interest rates and shrinking the money supply. Once they finally figured out that was wrong, and did the opposite, only then did the economy find its bottom. It took WWII and the need for military buildup for the war to turn the economy around.
This is an excellent time to say goodbye!...I mean, this is an excellent time to buy!
They should leave the rate alone. By rasing the rate Oil by the barrel will rise on the sign that our economy is recovering.Low intrest rates also got us into this probelm to begin with dont you rember Allan Greenspan in early 2000s. They need to work on the morgage market to get things moving again. Why do we have to keep giving in when everything hasnt had a chance to regain after all the help the feds have been giving everybody? Fire them all and vote for Nadar.
Keep feeding all these idiots the desert...don't make them eat their vegetables! What the stupid Fed is doing will not work in the long term. Fiscal Policy is being abused here.......the Fed should be giving the money to the Taxpayers...not taking it from them. Consumers make the world go around...The Fed needs to go to "trickle up" and not"trickle down." We have tried "trickle down" for years; and it is not working. All the "antibiotics" the Fed can muster will not solve the problem. Give us (the taxpayers) our money back; we know what to do with it. The damn Banks don't know how to use money! They have proven that over and over again.
The Fed should have used the $700 billion to DIRECTLY lend to businesses and consumers, in competition with the banks. The banks are greedy and will eventually lend to creditworthy individuals and businesses when they see the loss of revenue. If some of these government-direct loans default, it is still less of a loss than the whole thing, which is what we all know is going to happen.
wages wages wages, Reaganomics was a deal where the politicians could satisfy the capatalists- keep wages from going up, and the populace, make them feel like they're rich -the unwind of this is a long grinding depression - you won't reflate this Hindenburg!
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Pizza lover - Wednesday October 29, 2008 11:14AM EDT
Neopolitan and Sicilian.