Thursday, January 7, 2010, 7:56PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates later today; the only real question is by how much. Perhaps a better question is whether rate cuts will do any good in the short term, and what kind of long-term affect they will have on the economy.
Short term, it's important to note the effective fed funds rate -- meaning actual overnight lending rates -- has been below 1% since Oct. 10.
"The Fed is trying to lean against the decline in velocity [of money supply] -- which is essentially the same thing as a rise in the demand for money -- by expanding its balance sheet aggressively and allowing the Fed funds rate to trade well below the 1.5% target," writes Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners.
In other words, today's rate cut is a formality, codifying what the Fed is already allowing (and promoting) in the open market.
Beyond such technical considerations, the Fed's goal today -- and with its recent series of rate cuts and other extraordinary actions -- is to restore confidence so that banks will lend, consumers will borrow and speculators will take risks again.
The Fed is likely to have more success with the short-term speculators, and the past 24 hours have shown the impact rate cuts (both here and abroad) can have on market psychology.
So far at least, the Fed (and Treasury) have had less success in restoring confidence. "Pushing on a string" is the term often used to describe a central bank that can't get economic activity to respond -- no matter how aggressively it acts -- because sentiment is so fragile, not to mention the banking system.
There are three likely long-term outcomes to such a scenario, and only one of them is particularly hopeful -- kinda like what coaching legend Woody Hayes said about passing the football: "Only three things can happen, and two of them are bad."
Gee, why does not the Fed take the funds rate to zero?? That means you will have to pay banks to take your money...........
You can cut the shorterm interest rate to "0" it will do nothing for the general public, only help the Banks. If you want to jump start the economy their is only one solution and those within the lending industry all know this answer. The Lenders must bring the 30 year long term mortgage lending rate to below 4%, stated or unstated borrowers with good credit borrowers. You will see a Tsunami of refinance going on and it will bring more money into mainstream/ retail spending. Why the Lenders don't do this is beyond me.
Market may go up a bit with the interest rate cuts here and most recently in China. Oil prices are also going up so buy Exxon and good quality stocks ala Warren Buffett and you will be OK. I am also long on Pizza. It is edible, and during bad times can be traded for almost anything--food, clothing, sex and cigars to name some. If things get bad enough someone might even trade their SUV for a large combo pizza with all the trimmings.
Eventually, all of this money and easy credit spread over the landscape will lead to inflation. Secretly they (B & P) must want inflation to get them out of the housing mess. The question is, what will be the next bubble and when?
This rate cut does not really help the consumer in a material way. Let people borrow directly from the Fed, just like banks can. If I have AAA credit myself, why can't I get the same rate a AAA bank can get? The Fed is basically using our money and lending it to banks so they and their CEO's can get rich off of our money. Total treason against the American people!!!
Don't feed me crap, Henry, all outcomes are bad. We all better start reading up on M1, M2 & M3. I here Volcker is still around.
Savers continue to incur punishment by even trying to save. The fed heats the economy, inflates and the poor are pulled further into oblivion.
If the Fed wants to help the economy, they should do something about Credit Card interest rates. If you think the Mortgage deal was bad, wait until all of the unemployed folks defaul on their credit card payments. Who is going save the banks then?
The fed funds rate is already effectively trading below what they are planning on cutting to so any rate cut will make no real difference at all. Any difference it will make will be purely as a confidence booster. I'd say there's more likely a chance that the market will sell off shortly after the cut than rally for the rest of the day.
Funny, we never had a Depression untill we had the Federal Reserve......
No matter what the Fed. does it will be wrong. All they are doing is creating more money, out of nothing. It will cause inflation, starting next year. It will be the same as the Carter years. The next pres. should replace Bernanke and Paulson.
Why isn't anyone worried about the fixed mortgage rates rising? They need to get bank to lower the fixed rates and people will BUY HOUSES!!!. This is needed to stop house values from falling further.
The big three { falling three} learned the hard way about 0% which way do we go now. Why doesn't Bucket Shop Bernanke hire a nice insurance company AIG and do a {credit default swap} he will have it fixed in no time
Consumers with no money and a loss of jobs won't start buying just because the fed lowers the interest rate. If you can't afford to buy or borrow at a 5 percent interest rate you can't afford to buy or borrow at 0 percent. Overextended consumers have caused this mess and until everyone gets their balance sheet in check it won't improve. Debt caused this mess and yet they are trying to encourage people to buy and borrow and banks to lend. We need to get our manufacturing base back so we create real wealth by creating something of value instead of selling insurance and hamburgers to each other. Further, when rates decline billions are taken from older consumers hands who are invested in CDs etc. Yes, older consumers do consume.
I would like to see rates raised by 500 basis points at a minimum. That would curb inflation. Oh, I guess there is no inflation according to the govt - BS.
We cannot get out of this crisis by only attempting to control the money supply which is what the Federal Reserve is doing by increasing and decreasing interest rates. The only way out of this is for fiscal stimulation. This means higher government spending. The tax and spend liberals have to step up to the plate and do more taxing and more spending. It worked during the Great Depression and it will work now. The longer we prolong this the longer it will take to get out of this mess.
Blind leading the blind. No, better was beavis and butthead. Time for everyone to get a grip on their finances. Possibly to get a budget and live within it. The speed we are going downhill is incredible, and not so funny, no one can slow us down. I personally am hoping that when we hit the bottom, all of us will be able to get up again....
H4H and TARP were supposed to assist distressed homeowners and bring back liquidity to the purchase market primarily via FHA. Today the Treasury announced it would invest $395MM In City National Bank of Beverly Hills , a bank that caters to the wealthy. I know personally as the first job I had was running the credit department @ CNB when Bram Goldsmith was on the BOD and his son, Russell, was just a boy!! To date I feel Bush-Whacked. Congress voted for TARP and prior for H4H and one of the major SPOKEN purposes was to get liquidity back into the real estate market as the primary mover in the economy is real estate/home purchases and now assisting distressed home owners and stopping foreclosures where the borrower is "REAL". It seems Paulson pulled the wool over everybody's eyes in Congress and is assisting his Wall Street and well to do cronies and not what Dodd and Frank believed to be true and that is why he resisted any ties or guarantee's to the monies invested in banks as to making sure they were used @ least partially to prop up the residential mortgage market. He has done ZERO to date other then to bolster mergers and giving additional monies to banks that have NO STONG PRESENCE IN FHA Lending !!
Turning Japanese, I think it's turning Japanese, I really think so.
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Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday October 29, 2008 11:57AM EDT
Didn't Japan lower their rates to basically 0 at one time? That worked well - not. Does anyone really want more "Credit"? Don't we just want to be able to afford the things we need without it? The Fed can lower the rates to 0 if they want, but that won't make me go on a buying spree.