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Goodbye October, Hello Rally? Big Money Sees Dow Up Another 14%

Posted Nov 03, 2008 10:38am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Clean Tech

October was one of the worst months in market history, but ended with one of the best weeks in market history. Stocks advanced early Monday as November trading gets underway, and the conventional wisdom on Wall Street is the pre-election rally will continue.

If Barron's "Big Money" poll is right, the Dow will end the year at 10,642, a 14% gain from Friday's close. Some "remarkable bargains" were created by the market's rout, says Jim McTague, Barron's Washington editor, citing food giant Archer Daniels Midland and engineering firm Kaydon as examples. (McTague does not own shares in either company.)

McTague notes the kind of "naked panic" seen in September and October typically occurs at major turning points. Specifically, he cited the spike in outflows from U.S. equity mutual funds of nearly $50 billion combined in September and first two weeks of October, according to AMGData.com.

Historically speaking, mutual fund investors are terrible market timers -- selling at bottoms and buying at peaks -- and the "smart money" on Wall Street is betting retail investors just repeated that inglorious pattern.

110 Comments

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday November 03, 2008 10:43AM EST

AGREE IT WILL UP TO 10,642 AT THE YEAR END.........WHY......OVER KILL ....OVER SOLD........

madmilker
madmilker - Monday November 03, 2008 10:54AM EST

wrong!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 10:56AM EST

Come on baby go higher so I can BAIL OUT !!! come to papa baby....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 10:58AM EST

Nonsense. Stocks are still over-valued. Expect Dow to fall to 7,000 early next year.

JohnL
JohnL - Monday November 03, 2008 11:01AM EST

HAPPY!!!!!!!!!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 11:01AM EST

He says "stocks I recommended when they were $50 or $60 are now trading around $30." Doesn't exactly instill confidence in his predictive abilities.

- Monday November 03, 2008 11:01AM EST

I agree. Then crashing again in March to 8,300.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 11:02AM EST

After every drop in this market, the experts have been saying: "the markets will now be in a range; up a year from now", over and over again! Nothing is a bargain, everything is fair value for the first time in a long time... Fair value does not mean bargains. The stocks you owned before were just overpriced crap.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 11:02AM EST

Looking at the Dow graph, it could go to 10,000 tops. The reason being that 10,000 is the 50% retracement from 12000 to 8000, plus there is a sh@# load of resistance at this 10,000 level. AIso the 30 day moving average is still pointing down. But looking at the market fundamentals, I doubt it will reach even this level.. People are trying to talk up the market so they can sell into the rally. These are parasites, leeches, lying through their teeth so they can profit. Not all the crooks are in jail folks.

Mauricio P
Mauricio P - Monday November 03, 2008 11:04AM EST

It may end the year in the 10,000's but I seriously doubt we've seen the worse. It's going to take a few months for all the results of the layoffs (Xerox, GoldmanSachs, Merck, FPL, etc etc) to work their way into the markets. Once the numbers for the Christmas season come out in the early part of the year people will go back to panic mode.

dano
dano - Monday November 03, 2008 11:06AM EST

What was the big money poll earlier this year for where the DJIA would be at the end of October or where it will be at end of this year, but taken much earlier this year? Give me some history so I can gauge their accuracy. I'm still seeing things as a bear market rally, which is why I'm not in yet. I sure want to get in, which tells me most people are once again too bullish right now. I need people to think the market will continue lower to tell us that we really hit a bottom. I believe that the market has already priced in Obama winning and that we won't have a rally after the election as we've already had it before the election. It's simply buy the rumor, sell the news.

Jake
Jake - Monday November 03, 2008 11:07AM EST

I think 10,600 is a fine number, I was personally picking 11k. When it reaches that number, I will bail, though. It will drop again. And when it drops again, I will jump back in again. Then I will hold long term as the economy recovers...but thats a year out, so that plan could change....easily. I sold all my stock holdings when the dow was at 13k in 2007 (it went up to 14k after that, and then eventually starting going down). Then I bought back in when the dow was at 8500. So, far so good, on market timing.

maicaray
maicaray - Monday November 03, 2008 11:10AM EST

"Retail Investor," they even have a name for you idiots. Come on down, Come on down; so the wall street barrons can scalp what you have left. These damn "cheerleaders," (the name I have for them), would love to get you into this market. This casino still has a lot of problems and the greedy little players still have not learned their lessons. They know the bailouts are still available, so they are free to play their games. This pendelum will swing the other way and not in the fat cat's direction. Cash is still king and savings is the game plan for the future.

scissor m
scissor m - Monday November 03, 2008 11:10AM EST

elliot wave at work here

Edward
Edward - Monday November 03, 2008 11:11AM EST

"Big Money" are the greedy idiots that got us in this mess. Besides being way over valued stocks are not going to go up until I the consumer feel it's time to spend freely again, and that is going to be a long time. Christmas will be family, good food and a great time this year, just no stupid tree or spending and I will feel better for it.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 11:13AM EST

up up and away we go

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 11:13AM EST

FROM THE COMMUNIST POINT OF VIEW THEY LIKE THE DOW JONES TO FALL % 40 PERCENT MORE ,THE HDGE FUND LIKE IT, THE SHORT SELLER LIKE IT BECAUSE THE ARE THE AGENT OF SOCIALIST AND COMMUNIST...... THEY PROFIT FROM IT AND THEY HATE GOOD NEWS....I LOVE GOOD NEWS AND HOPE.......THEY ARE AFRAID THE DOW JONES TO UP 10,500 BY YEAR END ........

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 11:14AM EST

FROM THE COMMUNIST POINT OF VIEW THEY LIKE THE DOW JONES TO FALL % 40 PERCENT MORE ,THE HDGE FUND LIKE IT, THE SHORT SELLER LIKE IT BECAUSE THE ARE THE AGENT OF SOCIALIST AND COMMUNIST...... THEY PROFIT FROM IT AND THEY HATE GOOD NEWS....I LOVE GOOD NEWS AND HOPE.......THEY ARE AFRAID THE DOW JONES TO UP 10,500 BY YEAR END ........

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 11:15AM EST

Buy FORD and triple your money in less then 2 years. A SURE thing other then death and taxes !

Steve
Steve - Monday November 03, 2008 11:15AM EST

good news indeed. I'm ready for a rally!

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