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Election Preview: What to Expect After the Votes are Counted
Posted Nov 03, 2008 02:07pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, NewsmakersWhile Obama vs. McCain gets all the attention, it's important to remember that the outcome of Congressional elections matters almost as much as who wins the Presidency. So with election day finally upon us, Henry and I sat down with Jim McTague, Barron's Washington editor, to get a sense of what to expect from the next Congress.
Unlike many D.C. pundits, including several on the right side of the political spectrum like Peggy Noonan, McTague does not expect a landslide victory for Barack Obama or the Democrats generally. McTague is sticking by a prior forecast that the Obama's victory will be narrower than most expect and John McCain will have enough coattails to help some Republicans win in tight Congressional races.
Regardless of how big their coattails, McTague says there's a lot of "fiction on the campaign trail" -- from both candidates. Whoever wins the Presidency will most likely have to scale back many campaign promises. With the economy a "total wreck," Obama will likely have to scale back or at least delay his planned tax hike for households making over $250,000, the columnist says.
Owing to those harsh economic realities, McTague also foresees the lame-duck Congress attempting a fiscal stimulus package after the election, but expects President Bush will obstruct big infrastructure spending. Should that occur, we may end up with a third stimulus package after Obama (presumably) is sworn in.
But what happens if the polls are right and Obama wins big and the Democrats notch big gains in Congress, perhaps even securing a filibuster-proof of 60 Senate seats?
Expect higher capital gains taxes, says McTague, noting key Obama economic adviser Austan Goolsbee believes higher cap gains taxes don't materially alter investor behavior.
137 Comments
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 02:15PM EST
After the votes are counted first time or second or third or fourth or well you get the idea
James - Monday November 03, 2008 02:23PM EST
Blah... blah... More brainwashing by the mainstream media Remember the 3 Ms: Military, Media, Money control Ralph Nader? Small business, opportunity, the American Dream, and the U.S people
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 02:23PM EST
what a long strange trip it's been
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 02:30PM EST
Get ready Helicopter Ben will have his go at us....... throwing cash from the Whirlybird. Can we be forced to repeat the overspending that allowed the gurus on wall street to ramp up leveraging and the derivative disasters. The jackass you have speaking ( I admit to insulting Jackasses ) needs a reality check. The dinosaur
Mary Ann - Monday November 03, 2008 02:41PM EST
ariez5236, I am sorry to say you are right on the money. This country is in for 4 really awful years with Obama and his cronies at the helm. The only bright side, is that it will only be for 4 years.
ed - Monday November 03, 2008 02:45PM EST
NEVER have I witnessed as many misguided statements by the Democratic office seekers. Yes I remember voting for FDR. Yes I am a survivor of the Great Depression/a, combat survivor of WWII. To TOP it off A so called YellowDog Democrat of days past. ALL you students of history NEED to study Gibbon's FALLof The Roman Empire. Our party ELITE Leaders need to Think about our Nation'sFuture. WAKE UP REID/Pelosi along with our president -elect
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 02:47PM EST
If the polls are correct Osama should win by a landslide. Unfortunately it will be terrible for the economy, with the democrats (socialists)controling both houses and the oval office. This great nation is on the way to become a banana republic.
Richard - Monday November 03, 2008 02:47PM EST
It matters not who wins-only time will straighten out the economy
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday November 03, 2008 02:49PM EST
I he will listen the people not the adviser........What majority of the mobs telling is true.........Like before this crisis many years the mobs are expreesing what they feel about the economy......No response from congress and the president the real.......The end result....crash......and financial mess...........Mobs always know what is happening..........I hope Obama will listen and made an action.......haever the mobs tellig is true because it is the feeling of the entire citezen......
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday November 03, 2008 02:49PM EST
I he will listen the people not the adviser........What majority of the mobs telling is true.........Like before this crisis many years the mobs are expreesing what they feel about the economy......No response from congress and the president the real.......The end result....crash......and financial mess...........Mobs always know what is happening..........I hope Obama will listen and made an action.......haever the mobs tellig is true because it is the feeling of the entire citezen......
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 02:49PM EST
Obamanomics is coming and spreading the wealth to all the non working people. Remember that the USA gives out so much free money that you don't have to work to own a home, free food rent,cash to spend. If you learn the system your entitled to more than a working stiff. The Good days are coming keep it rolling Obama Mamma.
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 03, 2008 02:50PM EST
Thank goodness Bush will be gone.
Rick - Monday November 03, 2008 02:51PM EST
not only buy gold, buy guns becuase we will have to portect the replubic!
Sonal P - Monday November 03, 2008 02:51PM EST
is this what we call "smart" financial investors? does he really think that taxes are really going to dramatically reduce investing. moron, it's still better than the 2% savings rate.
Olen - Monday November 03, 2008 02:57PM EST
I can't belive that the american pepole is or could be falling for all of this that the news media is putting out.I have listen to 5 or more statement by obama they have all been lies wait up america.
lisalipps - Monday November 03, 2008 02:57PM EST
Obama Wins. -RIP The United States of America 1776-2008-(born) The United Socialist States of America- 1/20/09
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madmilker - Monday November 03, 2008 02:11PM EST
nothing!