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Rally On: Stocks Still 'Incredibly Cheap,' Says Unrepentant Bull Altucher

Posted Nov 04, 2008 04:53pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, Recession

The market resumed its week-long rally Tuesday, with the Dow climbing 305 points while the S&P gained 4.1% and the Nasdaq jumped 3.1%. Since hitting 5.5-year lows on Oct. 27, the major averages have each gained about 18% in seven trading days.

With the election dominating the headlines, it's tempting to attribute the market's recent advance to the calendar; be it simple relief the "uncertainty" will soon be over, or a (likely) victory by Barack Obama being embraced by investors.

"I'm sure there's some aspect that's Obama related," but there are more fundamental reasons to explain the recent rally, says James Altucher, managing partner of Formula Capital:

  • Most mutual funds have fiscal years ending Oct. 31, meaning they are done with tax-related selling as well as selling to meet redemptions (real and anticipated).
  • Selling by hedge funds to meet redemptions (real and anticipated) occurred in late September and early October and have also abated, at least for the time being.
  • The market got dramatically oversold and many stocks were driven to "incredibly cheap" levels during the September-October rout.

If Altucher saying stocks are "incredibly cheap" sounds familiar, that's because he made a very similar claim on Aug. 28. In the accompanying video, I asked Altucher what went wrong with that call: In short, the government letting Lehman go bankrupt was a nasty surprise, the fund manager said, while also admitting he underestimated the economy's weakness.

But Altucher is unrepentantly bullish. He still sees great bargains, especially in names that were thrown overboard by hedge funds during the liquidation phase, including KBR, Freeport McMoran, AK Steel and ag stocks like Mosaic. (Disclosure: Altucher owns the aforementioned stocks.)

55 Comments

nomorework
nomorework - Tuesday November 04, 2008 05:04PM EST

Is this guy SERIOUS???? Been to the mall lately? Been to an auto dealership lately? I guess people will be lining up at Christmas to spend... wait a minute, they have no credit left, they can't SPEND!!!!!

Dean
Dean - Tuesday November 04, 2008 05:42PM EST

I'm sure this guy has waterfront property in Florida to sell you, too. He has ZERO credibility. We are far from bottom...total suckers rally going on the past week. It can't be sustained, no matter how "cheap" everything seems. Historical fundamental analysis in a sinking global economy just doesn't work any longer. Staying in cash for now and sleeping well because of it.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 04, 2008 05:49PM EST

selling a little today... will continue to watch the mkts- think we'll see some upside over next couple of months, but agree - long term - nothing real positive to look forward to... depends how much time you have. if you're retiring in 20yrs... might as well keep buying through this period...

Redwoodkape
Redwoodkape - Tuesday November 04, 2008 06:02PM EST

He's really saying that stocks are cheap because they are 35-40% off their all time high in Oct 07. We could also say that they are expensive because they are 20% above their recent low. Neither statement is supported by good fundamental or technical analysis. Based on historical parallels, the markets need another low but don't bet the farm either way.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 04, 2008 06:10PM EST

Get back in now in a conservative way if you have the ability to do so which will help the economy and the financial system in general. Otherwise quit doom mongering and sit on the sidelines quietly.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 04, 2008 06:13PM EST

I am going to do whatever the man with the wild hair says.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday November 04, 2008 06:13PM EST

Agree Stock are cheap ....Any good news the boast confidence will be good for the market........If it is the outcome,no doubts stock will raise and go up very quick......

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday November 04, 2008 06:13PM EST

Agree Stock are cheap ....Any good news the boast confidence will be good for the market........If it is the outcome,no doubts stock will raise and go up very quick......

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 04, 2008 06:21PM EST

How many thousnds of miles does this guy drive per week? He's planning on paying off his mortgage by saving 4 to 5 cents per mile on gas. Do the arithmetic and find that's 2+ million miles for each 100K of loan balance. The guy may be bullish and the market may go up, but there is a definite lack of rationality in his case.

- Tuesday November 04, 2008 06:50PM EST

Why is Howard Stern telling me to be bullish?

David
David - Tuesday November 04, 2008 06:55PM EST

This guy doesn't get it at all. Who is going to bail out the retailer? Circuit City announced major store closings today-just a prelude to chapter 11 real soon. Nobody is shipping them, so chances are they will go down before end of year.

JohnB
JohnB - Tuesday November 04, 2008 07:42PM EST

There is no real confidence right now only hope. Till there is real confidence things are going to volitile

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 04, 2008 07:51PM EST

No blood in the streets yet. I'm not buying till I see the blood. Until then, I will sleep well.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 04, 2008 08:15PM EST

Stocks were cheap in Japan when the nik was at 20000 too.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 04, 2008 08:46PM EST

Hey Mr. Peabody. Set the "Way Back" machine way back to 1995. When the Dow reaches 1995 levels, then maybe, just maybe, I'll start buying.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 04, 2008 08:53PM EST

I don't want to buy stocks now to help the economy and the financial system. I want to buy when the economy and the financial system are in ruins. That's when stocks are really cheap.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday November 04, 2008 10:00PM EST

he looks like some kind of avant garde indie filmmaker.

Pirate
Pirate - Tuesday November 04, 2008 11:37PM EST

This is a good bottom, time for some buying with some stops, make it while you can.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:02AM EST

I'm sorry for any of the folks that aren't right now buys stocks in good companies and just holding their cards for the next 6-12 months. When my retirement comes in the next 5 years I'll being singing all the way to the bank. Because I'm buying and buying and buying. Do any of you folks plan on not seeking medical care or plan on not eating or any other basic necessity. Look at your history. That's one thing about America and Americans they are very short sited. I want a change and I want it today. In 5 years people will look back and see this as the greatness opporuntiy to creat wealth. Name some other country that you want to put your money into. I been around the world and even Eurpoe and you have to be on CRACK to put your money some were else. And for all you nay sayers about the down fall of the US here's idea just move some were else!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:04AM EST

I'm sorry for any of the folks that aren't right now buys stocks in good companies and just holding their cards for the next 6-12 months. When my retirement comes in the next 5 years I'll being singing all the way to the bank. Because I'm buying and buying and buying. Do any of you folks plan on not seeking medical care or plan on not eating or any other basic necessity. Look at your history. That's one thing about America and Americans they are very short sited. I want a change and I want it today. In 5 years people will look back and see this as the greatness opporuntiy to creat wealth. Name some other country that you want to put your money into. I been around the world and even Eurpoe and you have to be on CRACK to put your money some were else. And for all you nay sayers about the down fall of the US here's idea just move some were else!

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