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President Obama's First Step: Reset Expectations

Posted Nov 05, 2008 12:15pm EST by Henry Blodget in Newsmakers, Recession, Election

From ClusterStock, Nov. 5, 2008:

If President Elect Obama were the incoming CEO of a corporation, he would now be preparing for the first act of his tenure: A massive write-off of the mountains of rotted junk buried on the company's balance sheet and an announcement that recovery will take a long, long time.

This flush would clear the way for several years of better than expected results. It would also take advantage of the new leader's one chance to blame the sorry state of the organization on his sorry predecessor.

President Obama began this process last night, in his victory speech, when he noted that restoring the country's health might take more than a term. In the next few weeks, he should go well beyond this:

  • The deficit will be more than $1 trillion a year for several years
  • The country needs a massive new fiscal stimulus
  • The housing market will continue to decline through at least 2010
  • Interest rates and taxes will eventually have to rise (after the economy stabilizes)
  • Weak corporations have to be allowed to fail
  • Millions of homeowners will lose their house
  • Unemployment will probably rise to 10%
  • The government simply cannot "bail the country out" -- not because it lacks the will, but because it lacks the power

In short, Obama needs to acknowedge reality, erring on the side of overstating the problems and challenges, and he needs to prepare the country for several tough years. Because if he doesn't, within six months of his taking office, the country will have forgotten all about the prior administration and will instead be blaming everything on him.

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14726 Comments

Mary Ann
Mary Ann - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:26PM EST

There is one important bullet item missing from this article... continuing to keep this country safe from terrorists. Say what you want about Bush, but this country has been safe because of his policies. I do not feel safe with the new regime. Mark my words, we will be tested and it will be sooner then later.

lisalipps
lisalipps - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:27PM EST

Well we now have a far left liberal (maybe socialist) president and a democrat controlled congress. Can we all remember back about 32 years with a president named Carter.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:33PM EST

YES WE ARE IN ECONOMIC MESS IF IT IS CORPORATION IT IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE.....TRILLIONS OF DEBTS....THE QUESTION IS...WHOSE FAULT IT IS.....IS IT OBAMA OR THE FORMER CEO.....

Kevin
Kevin - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:33PM EST

He and the democrats could turn the housing market around over-night by eliminating the prohibitions, penalties, and taxes on using your IRA to purchase real estate. The ensuing bull market in real estate would make the last one look like a walk in the park.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:34PM EST

He will probably make the economy worse via a new new deal, and rightly deserve the blame for it in four years. FDR is credited as saving the economy, but reality is that after 8 years of his new deal we still had recession/depression. Leys hope that it does not end with war this time, though.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:35PM EST

November 4th 2008, a date which will live in infamy, the United States elected as president one of the most disgraceful politicians of all time.

Juliet
Juliet - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:35PM EST

this is the hard reality no matter who is in the office

sleety
sleety - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:36PM EST

I am sticking to my guns and religion........

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:37PM EST

Politics as usual and I expect the same big let down when nothing really changes. At some point people will figure out that change cannot happen by doing the same old thing with the same old crowd.

Peter
Peter - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:37PM EST

What? Low Interest rates will get us out of this pickle. GM's Hybrid cars coming out this Christmas will lower oil prices and raise GM production and profits and jobs. Low oil prices, lower inflation, lower interest rates.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:37PM EST

Definitely the former CEO who was a drunk that got elected by the good old boys.

Carl
Carl - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:43PM EST

You voted for him so I don't want to hear your whining.

Jim
Jim - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:44PM EST

How long we he be able to blame the former CEO. The american people have a pretty short memory and high expections.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:44PM EST

"THE QUESTION IS...WHOSE FAULT IT IS.....IS IT OBAMA OR THE FORMER CEO....." Since the mess started with the Community Reinvestment Act, low interest rates, the encouragement of ARMs by the Fed, the elimination of down payment or income requirements for borrowers, and a refusal by the Fed to regulate mortgage-based financing instruments, all of which preceded the tenure of the former CEO, the answer is clearly "neither."

A R
A R - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:45PM EST

standby for the depression

recycleguy
recycleguy - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:46PM EST

Obama has no clue, and should get informed before he makes any promises, whether lowering or raising expectations. He has no experience and needs to meet with many people before he should have any opinion on the financial crisis. As far as security, you should have voted for McCain. Yes, Carter started the ball rolling with lack of respect for our will to defend our interests, and it took Reagan to restore it. Hopefully we wont backslide, but I doubt it.

kdizz_24
kdizz_24 - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:46PM EST

There we go now all the ignorant people that believed his lies, will hear the truth from him. He already stated weeks ago that he had made promises that were above reason. at least I can always say I Voted McCain

DK
DK - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:47PM EST

Lotta Tards, the worst thing is, the majority of people actually believed what you said.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:47PM EST

It wasn't that long ago, 3+/- months, that both Bush and McCain were saying that things were going to be ok and that the financial system was strong. It takes someone with guts to tell it like it is and not sugarcoat everything so that you stay popular. Obama is the right leader for this period. Much like Kennedy was.

David
David - Wednesday November 05, 2008 12:47PM EST

So what you're saying is that as a candidate I can make promises that I don't have to realize immediately once I've won despite not stating the consequences during the campaign (but am allowed to state that it may take awhile during my victory speech)? I agree with MaryAnne on the missing bullet. Also Americans in general have short term memories and look for quick fixes (a quarter on Wall St.) and limited long term perseverance (e.g. the Iraq War). If what the author states becomes reality, Obama will be one and done.

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