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Will Obama Govern from the Center -- or the Far Left?

Posted Nov 05, 2008 03:06pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers

As the dust settles on a historic election, many Americans are wondering: Will Barack Obama govern from the center, or the far left?

Barron's Washington Editor Jim McTague writes: "Eight words in President Elect Barack Obama's victory speech should give some small comfort to jittery financial markets: 'We know that government can't solve every problem.'"

"Plain and simple, this was outreach to Wall Street and to fiscal conservatives," according to McTague.

Additionally, an op-ed piece in The New York Times by Robert Rubin and Jared Bernstein provides a window into the mindset of leading Democratic thinkers: "Fiscal stimulus must be married to a commitment to re-establishing sound fiscal conditions with a multi-year program that includes room for critical public investment, once the economy is back on a healthy track."

Setting aside opinions and rhetoric, let's look at some political realities:

  • The Democrats increased their control in Congress but did not achieve the filibuster-proof majority of 60 Senate seats, as McTague correctly forecast here. Notably, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky survived a close race.
  • The so-called Blue Dog Democrats in the House will likely try to keep some sanity on spending, and will work with their Republican colleagues to that end.
  • A common refrain in Republican circles is that the party lost ground because they "abandoned conservative principles." True or not, they'll be much less likely to accede to increased Federal spending with a Democrat in the White House.
  • Obama is presumably smart enough to understand the majority of Americans really are centrists, which may seem self-evident but often gets lost in the "Red State-Blue State" clash that's dominated political discussions in recent years.

Such considerations should quell concerns about Obama steering the country dramatically leftward, even if that were his intent, which itself is debatable.

As always, I encourage you to submit your two cents in the comment section below - but please keep it civil. Before you tell me how wrong I am and declare Obama to be a socialist (or worse), please recall: "Conservative" Republican George Bush oversaw the largest increase in Federal government since Lyndon Johnson -- and that was before the nationalization of the financial system began on his watch.

In other words, labels like "conservative" and "liberal" often don't match the reality of what elected officials do in office.

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