Friday, July 4, 2008, 5:42PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed for Independence Day.

From Silicon Alley Insider, April 17, 2008:
Release Out: Google meets revenue estimates and blows away EPS. Some hair on the quarter, but obviously miles from the disaster some had feared. Stock up $50 in aftermarket.
Gross revenue exactly in line with consensus--$5.2 billion, up 42%. Net revenue $3.7 billion, slightly ahead of consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $4.84 blows away consensus of $4.52.
US business did decelerate materially: from 40% in Q4 to 30% in Q1 (far from a disaster, but enough to justify some mid-quarter concern). Paid clicks also continued rapid deceleration, from 45% in Q3 to 30% in Q4 to 20% this quarter. Free cash flow dropped sequentially on shockingly high capital expenditures (where on earth is this money going?) Doubleclick only contributed to two weeks of the quarter: immaterial to revenue and slightly dilutive to earnings.
Release
Webcast (1:30PM / 4:30PM)
SAI Spreadsheet: Google Financial Analysis
CONFERENCE CALL NOTES
Eric: Strong quarter, well-positioned regardless of business environment. Ads showing transformative effects. Paid click growth higher than had been speculated by third parties. (Gets the dig in early). Quality improving. Fewer but much better ads. More and more flexibility control in hands of advertisers. DoubleClick has been added, allows much more comprehensive solution.
Apps: Working to build out whole new online experience. Salesforce allows integration for enterprise.
George: Results include DoubleClick. Immaterial to revenue and slightly dilutive...
Paid clicks... up 20% y/y. "On google.com in US remains healthy" (ie., COMSCORE IS FULL OF IT). International also strong.
Google's own hiring has slowed dramatically: 800 in Q1. 10% of DoubleClick laid off in early April. Another 15% expected to leave. These headcount reductions apply only to US and don't include divestitures. So far, no headcount reductions intl.
Operating margin increased sequentially, which reverses trend. This is good signs.
$842 million CAPEX. IT infrastructure, data center, networking equipment. This is shockingly high. Free cash flow nearly $1 billion, but down sequentially. When will Google finally be able to scale back CAPEX?
Sergey: Huge improvements in search. Yawn.
Larry: Ads and applications. AdSense improvements. Yawn. AdWords: conversion optimizer....customer conversion rather than clicks. Analytics: added industry benchmarking.
YouTube: 10 hours of video uploaded every minute. In-video ads great adoption, customers increasing size. Also launched Adsense for video...perform well, much better than banner ads.
DoubleClick...we're working on combining ad networks. Huge opportunities there.
Apps: Google Sites, offline docs--allows folks to run offline. Very excited about Salesforce partnership...integrated, seamless.
Culture: Fortune's best place to work two years in a row.
Q&A:
CFO search: George still here. No offers yet. Good candidates.
DoubleClick: What going to do? Omid's answer largely content free. Integrating YouTube into the network.
We will become world's largest display publisher. 90% of our pages can handle display ads. [THIS IS BIG STATEMENT]. Can integrate video, search, display, Feedburner, etc.
Display model--on your own pages? YouTube, yes. Haven't made decision on other sites. No specific plans. We're making progress in our network. Jonathan: Now that have DoubleClick, we can integrate DART for advertisers...
MACRO ECONOMY IMPACT: Eric: We have looked at it really carefully, and we do not see an impact at this time. Also looked at what would happen...we think we're well-positioned. Does well in most scenarios.
Quality improvements: Fewer hit quarter than usual, because more of them came late in quarter. Biggest ones are the landing page quality improvements. Also some policy changes: Users always know where they end up when clicking. Automatic matching beta test...that is relatively modest. We often don't know improvement very short term.
PREVIEW
We won't rehash the full debate, but here are the highlights. In Q1, the market has seen:
We know Google is intentionally reducing "accidental clicks" to improve ROIs for advertisers. We also know that, as late as early March, Eric Schmidt said the company still hadn't seen any impact from the weakening economy. The bulls argue that the company's click- quality improvement programs will lead to higher prices-per-click for the remaining clicks, thus offsetting the loss of revenue units. The bears argue that price increases can't possibly offset the drastic slowdown and that Google will see a sharp deceleration in US revenue in Q1.
Google generates about half of its revenue from the US, so if the US slowdown is significant, international would have to be extremely strong to offset it. Consensus estimates have dropped significantly since the start of the quarter, however, so the bar is considerably lower than it was three months ago.
We have modeled the quarter in detail, and we believe the company could survive a slowdown in the US business to about 25% Y/Y versus 40% in Q4 (and reported paid-click growth in Q1 of 2%). Any more of a slowdown, and Google will probably miss the current revenue consensus. (The EPS consensus is easier: Unless Google has continued to increase spending in the face of a sharp revenue slowdown, the company should easily beat EPS consensus).
Key Metrics
SAI Spreadsheet: Google Financial Analysis
Wow, Google was sooo cheap for a company that is revolutionary. I usually don't care if a company splits their shares or not, but it would be to Googles' share price benefit for them to split the shares. There are so many idiots that think its expensive because the stock price is high, when the real reason is they don't have enough shares outstanding. Also, the small investor hesitates to by just a couple shares of a company..they want at least a 100.
$600 target. Its growth is limited looking beyond 2008.
I wonder if Google will fly to $900 this month.
Googleis a buy because so many other techs are NOT a buy.
Google is sweet! I love the companies philosophy and their products. They offer soooo much for free it's unbelievable. Best company to work for? No doubt! I run an Internet Marketing firm with over 50 clients that have seen huge ROI from using Google's ad services such as Adwords. They make it easy for small and mid-size companies to cost effectively expand national marketing efforts. www.SlingshotSEO.com
What do you know about Enliven? ENLV is right in the middle of all this with GOOG/MSFT/YHOO. Adsense??? Does what DCLK can't do!!! last cc last 5 min on Yahoo
hey i bought 200 shares before the bell......do you want to buy them ? thanks google
Few thoughts on earnings which were "missed" by main stream media: Google has "blown up" earnings at 4.84 and meet revenue estimates at 5.2 bil. If somebody thinks that stock will go back to October Highs - think twice: company has beat only reduced estimates, just 90 days ago EPS was expected at 4.87. On our bearish front signs of further deterioration are all over the recent financial report: Revenue Growth Q/Q has slowed -50% from 14% to 7%, Y/Y has slowed -33% from 63% to 42%. EPS growth was 8.7% Q/Q and 30% Y/Y. Yearly growth is still impressive, but nothing out of the ordinary in order to support bubble valuation. Lets have a look how this level of EPS growth has been achieved. Here is the surprise - welcome to the new reality: gravity still matters even in cyberspace. Capex has increased to 841.6 mil +24% Q/Q YouTube blades add broadband must be eating hard into the company's margin. Cash Flow from operations has increased only 5% Q/Q. Our famous metrics of Free Cash Flow multiple is not leaving a lot of place for unwarranted happiness: in the Q1 FCF was 842 mil. Now market will decide what is Google: a new technological frontier changing universe and "this time is different" or it is still an advertising company with technology edge in its model? Its customers and consumers must be living in virtual world and not facing stagflation: rising prices due to intentionally loose monetary policy and recession in real inflation adjusted output. The most encouraging for this point is Eric's "...Eric reiterated the company has not seen any macro-economic impact." It is still to come...he needs some help to see his dramatically slowing growth and FCF. If company will be able to deliver FCF with 5% Q/Q growth for this year and CAPEX will stay at Q1 level FCF will be 4.2 bil. At 30 FCF multiple (our next stop in bearish slide compression) stock should reach Market Cap of 126 bil which will translate into USD397. Any change of heart of devoted shareholders or unfolding another bear leg in general markets and USD350will be seen as a blue sky http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/04/google-goog-has-deliveredanother.html
Few thoughts on earnings which were "missed" by main stream media: Google has "blown up" earnings at 4.84 and meet revenue estimates at 5.2 bil. If somebody thinks that stock will go back to October Highs - think twice: company has beat only reduced estimates, just 90 days ago EPS was expected at 4.87. On our bearish front signs of further deterioration are all over the recent financial report: Revenue Growth Q/Q has slowed -50% from 14% to 7%, Y/Y has slowed -33% from 63% to 42%. EPS growth was 8.7% Q/Q and 30% Y/Y. Yearly growth is still impressive, but nothing out of the ordinary in order to support bubble valuation. Lets have a look how this level of EPS growth has been achieved. Here is the surprise - welcome to the new reality: gravity still matters even in cyberspace. Capex has increased to 841.6 mil +24% Q/Q YouTube blades add broadband must be eating hard into the company's margin. Cash Flow from operations has increased only 5% Q/Q. Our famous metrics of Free Cash Flow multiple is not leaving a lot of place for unwarranted happiness: in the Q1 FCF was 842 mil. Now market will decide what is Google: a new technological frontier changing universe and "this time is different" or it is still an advertising company with technology edge in its model? Its customers and consumers must be living in virtual world and not facing stagflation: rising prices due to intentionally loose monetary policy and recession in real inflation adjusted output. The most encouraging for this point is Eric's "...Eric reiterated the company has not seen any macro-economic impact." It is still to come...he needs some help to see his dramatically slowing growth and FCF. If company will be able to deliver FCF with 5% Q/Q growth for this year and CAPEX will stay at Q1 level FCF will be 4.2 bil. At 30 FCF multiple (our next stop in bearish slide compression) stock should reach Market Cap of 126 bil which will translate into USD397. Any change of heart of devoted shareholders or unfolding another bear leg in general markets and USD350will be seen as blue sky http://sufiy.blogspot.com/2008/04/google-goog-has-deliveredanother.html
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WilliamErickson - Thursday April 17, 2008 05:33PM EDT
Do you remember all those now defunct internet stocks that handily beat estimates back in the day and their CEO went to jail several years later. Someday the Google Brass will be in jail after reporting TOTAL BS this afternoon. NO TRACKING SERVICE CAN CONFIRM GOOGLES BOGUE CLICK COUNT.