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Let It Bleed: Dow Sheds 443 as Credit Crunch Fears Resurface

Posted Nov 06, 2008 04:35pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking

Always in a hurry, I never stop to worry,

Don't you see the time flashin' by.

Honey, got no money,

I'm all sixes and sevens and nines.

Say now, baby, I'm the rank outsider,

You can be my partner in crime.

The Rolling Stones' "Tumbling Dice" is an apt theme song for the market Thursday, both because stocks tumbled again and because the market has become even more of a crap-shoot than normal.

"Stock picking means nothing now," comments money manager and blogger Howard Lindzon. "This is a casino all about timing so while it looks fun, it's dumb."

Stupid is as stupid does.

On Thursday, the Dow fell over 443 points to 8696 while the S&P lost 5% and the Nasdaq shed 4.3%. After rallying 18% in six trading days, the S&P has tumbled nearly 10% in the past two, its worst two-day decline since 1987, according to Bloomberg.

The most commonly cited catalyst for Thursday's swoon were:

While Cisco shares held up better than the broad market, Toyota and News Corp. each tumbled more than 16%.

Beyond huge moves for those "blue-chip" companies, many traders focused on the debacle at Las Vegas Sands, which plummeted 34% after issuing a "going concern" warning and said it may default on its debt.

A large third-quarter loss by Blackstone, Moody's downgrade of Ambac's debt to one-notch above junk status (what are they waiting for?), National City's $2.1 billion loss and Wells Fargo's planned $10 billion public offering (pant pant) served as further reminders the credit crunch isn't over.

After a few days of bright sunshine, the dark days of September and October suddenly don't seem so long ago.

110 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 06, 2008 04:47PM EST

Catalyst 4: OBAMA!

- Thursday November 06, 2008 04:47PM EST

did you see tat....Aaron....ther be blood comin' from them ther turnips!

- Thursday November 06, 2008 04:49PM EST

Why is everyone ignoring the 800 pound gorilla in the room? That gorilla has a name - Obama. We elected a socialist so now all the capitalists had better get out of the market while they can. And, they are. Has there ever been a drop this huge in the two days following an election? The market was recovering when it looked like there was even a slim chance of defeating Obama but now that it's obvious that the economy is going to have to try to survice his social engineering - it has dropped like a rock. Can anyone say, "Dow 3000"?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 06, 2008 04:58PM EST

Some thing has got to give, my 401K looks like a sad wet puppy and nobody knows how long they will have a job. If Obama can make some changes, great! Right now I just hope some really smart people get into the act and work this out, because what's been going on is all bad.

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:03PM EST

totally agree. Lets hope Obama will have enough sense and not go socialist on us. Stop the tax hikes and stop the capital gains hikes. This Kept us in the depression in the 30s 7 years to long. New deals don't work. Leave big government out of market recovery. Scarier still is this new stimulus package. Isn't over spending what got us here in the first place. I don't think 1000 dollar check borrowed on the backs of our kids is what America needs right now! We all need to get over our addiction to credit.

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:07PM EST

There is a huge drop every other day. This has nothing to do with socialism or Obama. This is the continuing result of the selling off of America--this country thrived when it ACTUALLY MADE THINGS. Now that we specialize in "service," we've got shite. All those who provide service will continue to be fired, as there are no products being sold to "service." CEOs have made billions by selling off what made real, and not paper money. We can thank them and the GENIUS NON-SOCIALIST administrations that supported their greed--they deserve to be socialized, in prison.

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:07PM EST

Hold on to your cash folks!!! De $h!T Gwine To Hit De Fan NOW

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:10PM EST

Capitalists recognize that W just nationalized the financial industry and is considering doing the same for the auto industry. So if Obama is a socialist, then W is a Marxist. Clearly, neither is true. Obama's election has been inevitable for a few weeks now. Attributing Wed and Thu to him would require attributing Mon and Tue to him as well. The last Democratic President presided over the Dow rising from 3200 to 11,000. Stop fear-mongering and trolling. Think before you write.

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:13PM EST

What would you do? Work and spread the wealth and have nothing or not work and have money given to you? Looks like the wealthy are saying if I can't have it neither will you... Can you say "DOW 2000"?

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:24PM EST

The "Mark to Market" rule was partly to blame for this mess becoming so exaggerated in the first place. It should be removed to help loosen credit. The Mark to Market rule basically says Banks have to value all of their (mortgage) assets at the value of the most recent trade. Since mortgages have been trading at 30 cents on the dollar, banks have to mark their assets down to reflect that figure. Now we all know that our home value may have dropped a lot BUT NOT BY 70% ! The rest of the story, this is actually a two part problem. There is another indirectly related rule that says banks must maintain a certain amount of assets to cover deposits (reserve requirement). So if a bank’s assets have been excessively devalued by the mark to market rule; banks are required to raise cash (forget about lending it!). Where do they get the cash? This is no time to issue stocks and bonds and there is only so much they can beg regular folks to open bank accounts... basically credit markets freeze. The ridiculous part is that mark to market rule in a normally functioning market has a place but today it is doing more damage than good...

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:24PM EST

The "Mark to Market" rule was partly to blame for this mess becoming so exaggerated in the first place. It should be removed to help loosen credit. The Mark to Market rule basically says Banks have to value all of their (mortgage) assets at the value of the most recent trade. Since mortgages have been trading at 30 cents on the dollar, banks have to mark their assets down to reflect that figure. Now we all know that our home value may have dropped a lot BUT NOT BY 70% ! The rest of the story, this is actually a two part problem. There is another indirectly related rule that says banks must maintain a certain amount of assets to cover deposits (reserve requirement). So if a bank’s assets have been excessively devalued by the mark to market rule; banks are required to raise cash (forget about lending it!). Where do they get the cash? This is no time to issue stocks and bonds and there is only so much they can beg regular folks to open bank accounts... basically credit markets freeze. The ridiculous part is that mark to market rule in a normally functioning market has a place but today it is doing more damage than good...

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:25PM EST

The "Mark to Market" rule was partly to blame for this mess becoming so exaggerated in the first place. It should be removed to help loosen credit. The Mark to Market rule basically says Banks have to value all of their (mortgage) assets at the value of the most recent trade. Since mortgages have been trading at 30 cents on the dollar, banks have to mark their assets down to reflect that figure. Now we all know that our home value may have dropped a lot BUT NOT BY 70% ! The rest of the story, this is actually a two part problem. There is another indirectly related rule that says banks must maintain a certain amount of assets to cover deposits (reserve requirement). So if a bank’s assets have been excessively devalued by the mark to market rule; banks are required to raise cash (forget about lending it!). Where do they get the cash? This is no time to issue stocks and bonds and there is only so much they can beg regular folks to open bank accounts... basically credit markets freeze. The ridiculous part is that mark to market rule in a normally functioning market has a place but today it is doing more damage than good...

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:31PM EST

The "Mark to Market" rule was partly to blame for this mess becoming so exaggerated in the first place. It should be removed to help loosen credit. The Mark to Market rule basically says Banks have to value all of their (mortgage) assets at the value of the most recent trade. Since mortgages have been trading at 30 cents on the dollar, banks have to mark their assets down to reflect that figure. Now we all know that our home value may have dropped a lot BUT NOT BY 70% ! The rest of the story, this is actually a two part problem. There is another indirectly related rule that says banks must maintain a certain amount of assets to cover deposits (reserve requirement). So if a bank’s assets have been excessively devalued by the mark to market rule; banks are required to raise cash (forget about lending it!). Where do they get the cash? This is no time to issue stocks and bonds and there is only so much they can beg regular folks to open bank accounts... basically credit markets freeze. The ridiculous part is that mark to market rule in a normally functioning market has a place but today it is doing more damage than good...

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:32PM EST

The "Mark to Market" rule was partly to blame for this mess becoming so exaggerated in the first place. It should be removed to help loosen credit. The Mark to Market rule basically says Banks have to value all of their (mortgage) assets at the value of the most recent trade. Since mortgages have been trading at 30 cents on the dollar, banks have to mark their assets down to reflect that figure. Now we all know that our home value may have dropped a lot BUT NOT BY 70% ! The rest of the story, this is actually a two part problem. There is another indirectly related rule that says banks must maintain a certain amount of assets to cover deposits (reserve requirement). So if a bank’s assets have been excessively devalued by the mark to market rule; banks are required to raise cash (forget about lending it!). Where do they get the cash? This is no time to issue stocks and bonds and there is only so much they can beg regular folks to open bank accounts... basically credit markets freeze. The ridiculous part is that mark to market rule in a normally functioning market has a place but today it is doing more damage than good...

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:33PM EST

sorry my browser seems to be double posting

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:36PM EST

we've had a number of good days before the election, so I don't see why we wouldn't be testing the DJ 8500 level or the 8000 level. Nuthin' to do with Obama. If it stays above that by next Tuesday, we will be good. My 401 allocations have been in fixed during the upswings, so I'm ready to get in on Monday or Tuesday after close. Anyone can tell that the Market only cares about value and not about who our president is for the next four years. bah! and bah humbug, moreso!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 06, 2008 05:36PM EST

Follow the money.

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:37PM EST

GaryW is right on! When it looked like the McCain/Palin ticket might win, the market started to rebound a little, but, you can thank the mainstream media and all of their silly polls. (I thought that was an old lesson). The "virtual" can definitely shape the "real". If people think their party is losing, anyway, they won't bother to stand on line for three hours or more! The Dems are pretty big on spending, anyway, let alone a guy who is really left of the norm, and who believes in "robbing Peter to pay Paul". He plans on raising what Bush lowered, cap.gains from 15% to 20%) and raising taxes on dividends, possibly to 39.5% !

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:46PM EST

The last Democratic President saw the Dow rise under the lead of a fiscally Conservative (not just Republican) Congress. Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't the Dems been in control and had the power to veto since 2006? W was not a conservative, and don't agree with him for many reasons. The bailout is a loser that was supported by both candidates. A novel idea would be for everyone to work and have the government support and incentivize them to succeed (tax credits, etc.) The glass ceiling and/or the promise of a mule and 40 acres for everyone is another loser that has always failed. Fear mongering? I think you are a victim of pandering.

- Thursday November 06, 2008 05:48PM EST

Yahoo!Finance User, by "follow the Money", do you mean all the untraceable donations?

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