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Bailout Price Tag: $3.5T So Far, But 'Real' Cost May Be Much Higher

Posted Nov 12, 2008 10:16am EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession, Banking

While the government is clearly spending a lot of taxpayers' money to bail out financial firms, the tally is even bigger than most Americans (economists and pundits included) are probably aware or willing to admit.

The bailout bonanza has gotten so big and happened so fast it's the true cost often gets lost in the discussion. Maybe Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke prefer it that way because the tally so far is nearly $3.5 trillion, and that's before a likely handout for the auto industry.

Yes, $3.45 trillion has already been spent, as Bailoutsleuth.com details:

  • $2T Emergency Fed Loans (the ones the Fed won't discuss, as detailed here)
  • $700B TARP (designed to buy bad debt, the fund is rapidly transforming as we'll discuss in an upcoming segment)
  • $300B Hope Now (the government's year-old attempt at mortgage workouts)
  • $200B Fannie/Freddie
  • $140B Tax Breaks for Banks (WaPo has the details)
  • $110B: AIG (with it's new deal this week, the big insurer got $40B of TARP money, plus $110B in other relief)

Tallying up the "true" cost of the bailout is difficult, and won't be known for months if not years. But considering $3.5 trillion is about 25% of the U.S. economy ($13.8 trillion in 2007) and the U.S. deficit may hit $1 trillion in fiscal 2009, hyperinflation and/or sharply higher interest rates seem likely outcomes down the road.

At the very least, the possibility of the U.S. losing its vaunted Aaa credit rating -- which determines the Treasury's borrowing costs -- cannot be discounted.

Moody's has already said it's not in jeopardy of being lowered. But we really can't put much stock in what Moody's -- or S&P or Fitch -- say after the subprime debacle, can we? More importantly, the price of credit default swaps on U.S. government debt has been on the rise since the bailout train got rolling, as Barron's reports.

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654 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:22AM EST

Cowboy says...all of this is going to cost the country dearly. Might seriously be time to begin looking for land in Mexico or Canada.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:24AM EST

When is the goverment going to bail me out??????

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:28AM EST

Add that to the 4 TRILLION dollars the Bu5h war crimes have cost us. We're screwed and so are our grand kids! The outgoing admin is giving away the farm and the justice dept, legislature, and the white house is making it happen. USA Inc. is bankrupt.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:31AM EST

Another Monday morning quarterback! Would like to see what you said a year back.

SUSAN
SUSAN - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:32AM EST

NICE legacy BUSH/CHENEY admin leave us with. They should have been IMPEACHED! Barack / Pelosi -- send them to jail !

Dean
Dean - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:38AM EST

Will the last person standing please turn out the lights?

Unnamed
Unnamed - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:38AM EST

Where does it end? Can any of this really work? I am not an econimist, hell cant even spell it. :-) But I am a business owner and I cannot for the life of me see how stemming these corrections will benifit the economy now or in 5 years. If someone can help me understand, I sure would appreciate it.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:39AM EST

gee... not to forget the exec's bonuses, yeah the same ones who got us in this mess will have a great holiday whereas many of our fellow american TAXPAYERS won't even have a job anymore!!!!!! Is this comunism or what!?? All I know is that we aren't better than ANY banana republic when it comes to corruption, greed and FRAUD!!!

Sean
Sean - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:43AM EST

It is what it is.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:44AM EST

It's a terrible situation. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't!

rockjock1037
rockjock1037 - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:44AM EST

3.5 Trillion will seem CHEAP once the dust has settled and the real cost has been tallied a few years down the road

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:44AM EST

Get used to the term "Shared Sacrafice" for at least the next 4 years. Problem is, how much is there to share????

Biggin
Biggin - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:46AM EST

So let me get this straight...The government (which gets its money from Taxes) has given away 3.5 trillion in addition to the national debt and defficiet? I'm no genious but according to economics 101 if you just print money to hand away then the money becomes worthless. Or did I miss a class where this ever works? Bottom line is this...this is much worse then it appears. Because unless the entire globe is willing to forgive the USA it's debt there is no way this works. The numbers are to big. The US government with the 3.5 Trillion dollars could have given every man women and child in america over $10,000 each. Instead of giving it to it's people it took it. This on top of what is owed by the debt and now we are going to throw in Healthcare and all the other new programs as well? I remember a line from the movie Aliens by Bill paxton that applies here...."That's it man game over, game over"

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:47AM EST

The american economy is screwed to put it lightly! The worst is yet to come. Time to think about moving out!

Larry
Larry - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:47AM EST

The $2 Trillion in Emergency Fed Loans are short-term investments, almost all of which are collateralized or guaranteed by major central banks. You have to calculate a potential loss on these loans to come up with a taxpayer burden. Likewise, the majority of the $700 Billion in TARP fund is investments, predominantly sofar in the largest and best capitalized bank holding companies. This is NOT SPENDING, it is INVESTING in capital to improve the functioning of the domestic financial markets for businesses and consumers. So $2.7 Trillion of your $3.5 Billion is investing , not spending. A big difference. The money spent in IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN over the last five years, IS GONE with no tangible return.

- Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:47AM EST

Bush and Cheney should be sentenced to go hunting with each other.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:48AM EST

Problem with the BAIL OUT is a Catch 22 situation. If you DON'T bail out the MAJOR companies, the amount of JOBS lost will cripple the economy EVEN MORE than it is RIGHT NOW! But if you BAIL them out, then how long will the govt have to keep giving them money beofre the economy can sustain itself. If you let a company like GM fail, it will mean over 3 MILLION jobs lost. That means adding 3 MILLION more people to UNEMPLOYMENT in the American economy, and not paying TAXES and not being able to spend money on the economy. But the UNIONS are the problem for the AUTO makers!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:49AM EST

It's a terrible situation. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't!

dano
dano - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:49AM EST

Execs did not get us into this mess. It's the US government who did this. They should all be impeached and tried for treason against the American people! That's the real solution. Forget about blaming AIG execs for having parties at resorts. It's who's in charge of giving funds (i.e. the US government) as to who is to blame. Go to the heart and source of the matter and stop blaming executives. I want the Fed to give people loans at the Fed Funds rate plus a risk premium, which would eliminate the margins most banks charge and leave more money in the pockets of the US taxpayer. This is taxpayer money after all, so why can't the taxpayer borrow against it? Yes, banks will fail due to this, but the taxpayer will be better off. Also, our economy would recover quickly. Imagine 5 year car loans at 2.75% and 30 year fixed mortgages at 4.5% for excellent credit borrowers.

None
None - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:50AM EST

Can the liberal haters get off the blame game? It's not like we had no congress and the Administration just "did this" to our government. All of the monies spent were approved by Congress, so focus on solutions rather than crying foul. I personally think that the government needs to get out of the bailout business now. This is clearly going to happen, and every time they say "bailout industry X" the markets take a dive. Let the dominoes fall and let's pick up afterward.

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