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Bailout Price Tag: $3.5T So Far, But 'Real' Cost May Be Much Higher

Posted Nov 12, 2008 10:16am EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession, Banking

While the government is clearly spending a lot of taxpayers' money to bail out financial firms, the tally is even bigger than most Americans (economists and pundits included) are probably aware or willing to admit.

The bailout bonanza has gotten so big and happened so fast it's the true cost often gets lost in the discussion. Maybe Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke prefer it that way because the tally so far is nearly $3.5 trillion, and that's before a likely handout for the auto industry.

Yes, $3.45 trillion has already been spent, as Bailoutsleuth.com details:

  • $2T Emergency Fed Loans (the ones the Fed won't discuss, as detailed here)
  • $700B TARP (designed to buy bad debt, the fund is rapidly transforming as we'll discuss in an upcoming segment)
  • $300B Hope Now (the government's year-old attempt at mortgage workouts)
  • $200B Fannie/Freddie
  • $140B Tax Breaks for Banks (WaPo has the details)
  • $110B: AIG (with it's new deal this week, the big insurer got $40B of TARP money, plus $110B in other relief)

Tallying up the "true" cost of the bailout is difficult, and won't be known for months if not years. But considering $3.5 trillion is about 25% of the U.S. economy ($13.8 trillion in 2007) and the U.S. deficit may hit $1 trillion in fiscal 2009, hyperinflation and/or sharply higher interest rates seem likely outcomes down the road.

At the very least, the possibility of the U.S. losing its vaunted Aaa credit rating -- which determines the Treasury's borrowing costs -- cannot be discounted.

Moody's has already said it's not in jeopardy of being lowered. But we really can't put much stock in what Moody's -- or S&P or Fitch -- say after the subprime debacle, can we? More importantly, the price of credit default swaps on U.S. government debt has been on the rise since the bailout train got rolling, as Barron's reports.

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654 Comments

BlairH
BlairH - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:50AM EST

I think I'm gonna puke now. Let these industries go down in flames. I could care less, as do most Americans. Nice to know that my son and grandchildren will be burdened with this mess. I think history will look back on these times with absolute disdain. Now all we're doing is making a bad situation worse with saddling the taxpayers with even more debt. Unreal.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:52AM EST

How about some tax breaks for those of us that didn't speculate on the housing boom, stock market or fancy life styles. We should be entitled to the future profits of the fat cat banks, AIG, Fanny, Freddie and everyone else that gets to escape at our expense. Let the money come directly to us and not get washed down through the FED that is taking the money directly from us. My neighbor walked away from a $100,000. loss that he does not have to repay. He still has another house, 2 cars and a good job. Where's mine????

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:53AM EST

This is horrible! I do not understand how the government, which is filled with supposely smart people, could be so reckless when it comes to spending and intervention. Hey step 1 stop giving money to foreign countries, step 2 either blowup iraq to set an example to the middle east or get out I really dont care which it is, step 3 stop paying the exc top dollar and billing the taxpayers, step 4 reduce federal control and return power to the states because i cam sick of the power the feds have, step 5 stop electing politicans and lets start putting economists and mba(s) into office, step 6 reduce the tax base to encourage spending because the government will get it back they always do, step 7 do what susan e said to set an example that if you screw up there are punishments, step 8 demand results for every dollar that the taxpayer has to contribute to this nightmare, step 9 keep jobs in america so people can make a living and pay there debts, step 10 and this is the most important WAKE UP america the people here are becoming more uneducated as the day is long... stop making excuses, stop living above your means, pay attention to politics and stop blaming other people for your problems because no one cares! sorry i am just an angry american right now and i want to see this country back to its former glory!!! ~true american

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:53AM EST

I suspect they are spending all this taxpayer money to protect the status of the dollar and the image of our institutions. I imagine if they didn't do this, things would have already begun imploding on a much larger scale then we are seeing now. Unfortunately, they are not doing a very good job since so much of the money is given without enough conditions.

kyle
kyle - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:53AM EST

I am astonished at how many simpletons think this was all Bush's fault, and that the new Messiah will instantly turn the ship around. WAKE UP, MORONS: There are fundamental problems across all strata of society that contributed to this mess--mainly the greedy "I-want-it-all-right-now-and -I'll-worry about-paying-later" mentality. Most all of us contributed to the problem, now most all of us are going to feel our share of pain during the unravelling. And pointing fingers at politicians isn't going to get any of you a "free pass".

woodman304
woodman304 - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:53AM EST

If they divided that money between taxpyers wouldn't that been better! Every one would own a home and a car with money in the bank. But you are going to give it to the same people that lost it in the first place!

Harold
Harold - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:55AM EST

Hey look.....the market is tumbling. I wonder why?

Scott
Scott - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:55AM EST

This was not the "Tiger Woods" economy, it is the Mike Tyson economy. The bully is shamed .

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:56AM EST

all i can say is ouch

Tom
Tom - Wednesday November 12, 2008 10:57AM EST

Gee, don't forget the tab for Social Security & Medicare which could be near $ 100 trillion in unfunded liabilities. My great, great, great grandchildren will be thanking me.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 11:00AM EST

stop blaming just Bush and Cheney to begin with- because its the goverment has a whole that is responsible for the mess and which i remind you our senate and house is democratic controlled for the last 2 years and has far has this housing crisis goes you got Clinton to blame for that part hes the one who passed legislation that bascially allowed anyone to buy a home - even people that normally would not have been able to afford such homes in the past - so please before giving blame to one single idividual take the time to educate yourself properly and no im not a republican or democratic supporter - im more of independant who wants the best person for the job in our goverment but unfortunately we bascially have a bunch of crooks working in there and the only reason they get away with it is because currently there are no laws that make it illegal - and one other thing that is needed it is a term limit for all house and senate members of about 10 years - that way we dont continueally get screwed over by the same people over and over again for the rest of our lives and just maybe will get some people that actually care enough to there jobs like there suppose to instead of for there own personal benefit

Peter
Peter - Wednesday November 12, 2008 11:00AM EST

Any good comments on the solar sector?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 11:01AM EST

My advice for current administration: Leave it for Hussein Obama to do- that is his specialty. No matter what you do now, he will be using it as an excuse for his screw-ups the next 4 years, so don't take money out of my pocket (or my grandkids) for the unnapreciative SOB (and his wife who is FINALLY proud of America). Besides, when did the republicans become socialists- let the free market work baby. We believed in it when everyone got a fat paychek- now stick with it when they have to pay (by the stock in their parachutes being worth nil)!

Jim B
Jim B - Wednesday November 12, 2008 11:02AM EST

One Nation, Under Financed by James Bassett It seems that we have in our wisdom used our unprecedented post war influence and prosperity to create and expand our now global economy on the foundation of a consumerism that is fully dependent upon an ever expanding population of those drawn into the industrialized complex to squander increasing amounts of cash on a boat load of useless crap. In a nutshell, that is the operative definition of Market Economy. It obviously also includes your humble home, your basic or your outlandish car, and a refrigerator. And with those come good and bad loans and credit cards. This, anything but free, Market Economy has become America’s current heart and soul. So much so, that when there is a blip in that Market, our government sends out what they call tax rebate checks of a few hundred dollars each to those who are more likely to do just that, spend, rather than increase support to the poorest among us who might use extra food stamps and/or a few more weeks of unemployment compensation to buy the barest essentials. When that doesn’t work beyond a tick in the tape, a full scale bailout for the now impoverished wealthy and their shares in the Market’s super financial corporations, which now sets the price of the formerly referred to as “Free” Market Economy to be a “toxic and illiquid 750 billion dollar” Market Economy which is indebted to those who covered their assets with a derivative multiplicity whose definition escapes even the nation’s financial czars who invented them and then proceeded to lend what basically amounted to good-ol’-boy cigar smoke with impunity to one another on a wink and a nod to the derivative assured tune of 531 trillion dollars, until ultimately none of the world trade financial giants would extend one day of credit even to each other for the internal distrust of insolvency. And slight choke on the smoke. It draws an irony behind waging a yet fruitless war over the fall of the grandiose symbols of the Free Market Economy, the World Trade Center Twin Towers, brought down by foreign hatred of exactly that which even we ourselves might now see as a possibly treasonous Corporate American greed that would fully pulverize and devastate itself and the financial foundations of the entire world, as we now hastily throw buckets of money to the rich and pledge allegiance to “one nation, under financed in deregulation, with no justice dispensed, and all civil and financial liberty abdicated to the executive branch.” The wealthy hold contempt for social governing when they are rich, but demand huge chunks of tax money to shore up profits when they are not, because they know from the outset that there is never a “trickle down.” Real money is always “sucked up.” And these tax monies as well are increasingly bled from the unfortunate working poor who have no voice in their need and in good times hold quietly to false hopes bandied about by the rich that the trickle will begin to pour. In good times they are the middle class and they have a price. And the rich say, this isolated incident and disaster is an enigma, this is a once in a life time drop in the market, and then snicker conspiracyism at a thoughtful comment on how the money moved the rumrunner into a more legitimate business. But it was the rumrunner who said it himself. And it may be that the crime is less organized than it might have been, but there will always be the municipal contract, and the Fed. And it will always be a contract on the poor, because the Free Market will never ask where the money comes from, so long as you have it. But the money will always change hands, be it by a bag runner in downtown Chicago or through an office high on K Street. It will now forever be an unchartered organization of disorganized crime. No organization is needed when the code of silent values are clear and the resemblance of ethics embraced. Those understanding these, will regulate themselves and as many as they may, until the end time. And when the end time looms, the top will pay dearly for the crowd to yell “kill” and some poor, needy, do-gooder will usually do it but good. So the world order lingers in the smog. We have it in writing, the perfect world order, when the government, the commerce, and the organized godheads all agree. The perfect world order spreading freedom and prosperity throughout the world by the most deadly armed, heavily ammunitioned, and most highly tech-equipped military a sole world super power can provide to every corner of the globe, wherever corporate control of the provincial government and the gross national product of business is obstructed. Hampered by those intent on a social integrity, those who revere ethnic communities and customs, those who fight to protect the land, water, and human rights of the uprooted indigenous peoples, and thwarted by those who impede the squandering of natural resources, biodiversities, and environmental symbiosis, the industrial expansion is disrupted also by its own, governments that fully fathom sovereignty, those already entrenched in established political and financial power know implicitly to resist another’s greed for their own. Although in the end, prosperity ruthlessly pursues from exactly these so established, those having an obtainable price, supplies them with munitions to establish the rule of Market law, and that coalition then colludes to advance the rule of their money at gunpoint. The Cold War was the Third World War. And the people of each nation lost and are losing still. The Market Economy, now surnamed “Money Talks”, won and conquered, and spreads peace and prosperity with each “smart bomb.” It is not the first end times. We have it in writing, the perfect world order, when the government, the commerce, and the organized godheads all agreed. The Pharisees, the Sadducees, and Rome all grasped rigorously to the governing rule of law to kill the Christ, kill all that was good in the world so that the world order remained, so that peace was maintained, and power remained in the realm of the selfish and self-righteous. It is the world order. It is the Tower of Babel. And it is what the Book is all about: The ebb and flow of world order verses human decency. And the Market Economy is the world order, where money talks and rampant and vulgar consumerism is the Babylonian whore luring the rich and powerful to plunder at will. There is no new thing under the sun. The sun rises. The truth falls Under the scrutiny. The sun sets. World Trade Reigns and the storm Gathers the nations. There is no new thing Under the sun. Not even who. Who Holds the reigns. And Who does not. Not even How. How the storm Calms the waters raging When the world is In World Order. What Rules where is written In the end times Long ago. Then and There is no new thing Under the sun. When there is nothing, only manna, those that gather more have no more than they need and those that cannot have no lack. The rich decry it in their wealth and demand it in their poverty. So if it is good for Wall Street now, why is it never good enough for Main Street and why does no one now scream “We Will Never Forget”?

Reedersong
Reedersong - Wednesday November 12, 2008 11:02AM EST

WHOA NELLY!!!

Ray Fun Relax
Ray Fun Relax - Wednesday November 12, 2008 11:03AM EST

The worst outcome is HYPER INFLATION - wiping out the middle class and the poor. There result will be millions of homeless - like they had in Germany before WW2.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday November 12, 2008 11:03AM EST

Thank you everyone for bailing us out, isn't this country great!! This year I will get my Bonus which should pay my house & car off, and I'll have some extra money for a 3 week vacation. Thanx everyone for bailing us out, what a bunch of stupid people!!!

Kenneth D
Kenneth D - Wednesday November 12, 2008 11:03AM EST

And this is working so well. The Dow is nearly half what it used to be and the companies lining up for handouts is just beginning. I need to start a crucial company so that I can get a bailout.

David D
David D - Wednesday November 12, 2008 11:04AM EST

Everyone acts like this situation has happened TO US. It hasn't. We DID IT through greed and shortsightedness.

brenda
brenda - Wednesday November 12, 2008 11:05AM EST

Why can't all the greedy SOB's who orchastated this fiasco be put in cages and have their overinflated saleries and compensation packeages confiscated in the manner that would be applied to any other criminal act? These were trained business professionals who were fully aware of the potential risks. The carmakers!!!!!!!! ----------- You've had since the friggin' 70's to figure out how to build a competitive car. How much stock is going to be sent to the taxpayers? Someone needs to step up to the plate and seriously begin to apply some tough love principals to these inept companies. It's pouring good money after bad. I really do believe that the leaders of industry and finance and goverment should be expected to at least maintain the same standards of fiscal responsibilty expected of the common man. If not, NEWS FLASH, You've got the wrong people in charge. And one election is not going to produce much. How about some sort of public works program where something tangible winds up being produced with this completely incomprehensible amount of money? This continual bailout stuff is complete rediculousness! llet the bastards reap what they've sown. I also seriously hope that some of this money that does not exist has been earmarked for me. If it reaches a point that I can't pay MY bills, in light of this govermental generosity, I will be expecting that the same courtesy will extend to me. This is supposed to be government OF BY and FOR the people. NOT WALLSTREET and inept business owners. The carmakers!!!! I would like to know exactly WHY YOU WERE UNABLE TO AT LEAST KEEP PACE WITH TOYOTA AND HONDA???????????? YOU LOST MARKET SHARE TO BETTER BUILT PRODUCTS WHOSE FAULT WAS THAT????????????

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