Wednesday, December 9, 2009, 6:49PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

A 'Stock Picker's Market?' Keep Dreaming

Posted Nov 13, 2008 02:00pm EST by Henry Blodget in Investing, Products and Trends, Recession

As market indices continue to plummet, another chestnut of conventional investing wisdom has emerged: "It's a stock picker's market." Now that you can't make money riding the tape, you just have to pick the winners and jettison the losers, right?

Wrong, says our guest Kenneth French, who is the Carl E. and Catherine M. Heidt Professor of Finance at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth. He's also the director of investment strategy at the phenomenally successful Dimensional Fund Advisors.

If the name "French" sounds familiar, it's probably because you've heard the names "Fama and French" come up over and over again whenever someone is discussing the most important academic work on investing in the last 25 years.

Professor French and his co-author Eugene Fama wrote the defining papers on how value stocks and small stocks have outperformed the overall market over the last century. Firms like Dimensional have since used this research to produce returns that blow away those of most traditional mutual fund managers (who use traditional stock-picking) and even some plain vanilla index funds. In the process, Dimensional has amassed more than $100 billion of assets under management.

So Professor French is hardly an ivory tower philosopher who knows nothing about the real world. Despite the battering the markets have taken over the past year, Professor French and Dimensional are still happy to let everyone else conclude that this is "a stock-picker's market" and batter their returns by competing against each other. Here Professor French explains why, on average, this strategy is guaranteed to lose.

Go to Tech Ticker
150 votes|Recommend this

58 Comments

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday November 13, 2008 02:16PM EST

HEY.......as of early 11/13/08 the DJIA has fallen as much as 1600 points+ to below 8,000 since the Black Tuesday close of 9,625, when a get-out-the-vote rally set an election day record (as people overwhelmed the Poles to cast their votes) closing "in the black" 305+ points.........BUT SINCE "BLACK TUESDAY", THE BOTTOM HAS TOTALLY DROPPED OUT OF THE MARKET...........Watssuuuup wit dat dawg?

Steve
Steve - Thursday November 13, 2008 02:16PM EST

Wow! An excellent theory! This is not the stuff that investment companies want us to hear. They want us to buy stocks and their mutual funds and fund their retirements as our languish.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday November 13, 2008 02:21PM EST

The more you pick the more confuse you are.....Yes aggressive style of some manager work wonder but this time it will not work......To be Honest not one is best in this market........not in this time my friend.......Most Fund manager are down 20% percent to 60% the worse.,........The best is about 20% down. as of now..............

georgeg
georgeg - Thursday November 13, 2008 02:38PM EST

Wall Street has always been a legal Las Vegas... Stock Picking is like Picking Red or Black on the Roullte Wheel..... Little do you all know the Fed and Treasury have a magnet on the wheel and the ball is a painted white Ball Bearing. THIS MARKET SCARES THE SHIP OUT OF THE EXPERTS AND WE ALL KNOW IT.

Peter
Peter - Thursday November 13, 2008 02:43PM EST

Please correct me if I am wrong. But I feel a rally about to happen despite the terrible news out there. Forget the bad news. Just buy buy..and buy some more everyone. Hooraayyyyyy :-) :-) :-)

Peter
Peter - Thursday November 13, 2008 02:44PM EST

All is good people. The bad news in the market means nothing. Just buy stocks.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday November 13, 2008 02:55PM EST

Earnings people.....earnings! now work that P/E ratio :-( :-( :-(

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday November 13, 2008 02:58PM EST

Earnings people........earnings!..........now work that P/E ratio :-( :-( :-(

Cat_in_a_bank
Cat_in_a_bank - Thursday November 13, 2008 03:00PM EST

It's b******t. Another technical trading. It was opportunity on 10/10 and 10/28, and where are we now? Just wait when pool off suckers will dry and then we will see how attractive are pushups.

Joe
Joe - Thursday November 13, 2008 03:04PM EST

There is NO WAY IN HELL this downturn will last merely through 2009. We are looking at a bad next 3 years at least - - and the "recovery" will be less than robust, I see systemic problems that are coming home to roost for years to come. Do you really think the glut of houses on the market work their way out of the system in 6 to 9 months? Do you think the economy is going to provide enough jobs for people to buy a GLUT of available homes? That's a ridiculous presumption, and until housing starts going up on a steady basis you can forget about any sustained recovery. For those of you who think stocks aways go up, take a look at the Dow from 1929 to 1954 or from 1965 to 1982. For now our problem is massive deflation, people trying to get rid of debt they cannot get rid of, with jobs they do not have, a problem that's hard "to do" anything about. Our government - - and not that I blame them for trying - - is taking the same approach the Japanese government took with their own banking crisis, and that approach succeeded in dulling the pain but also succeeded in extending that pain out over 20 years. We have our "tit" in a ringer and it's going to stay there for a while.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 03:04PM EST

Remember to sell into the rallies. This 300pt. drop turns into a 250pt gain. It's Paulson buying stocks with your 700 billon dollars of tax payer money. By the way 1/2 of it has been spent. Just read all the bad news and the market goes up?

Joe
Joe - Thursday November 13, 2008 03:04PM EST

There is NO WAY IN HELL this downturn will last merely through 2009. We are looking at a bad next 3 years at least - - and the "recovery" will be less than robust, I see systemic problems that are coming home to roost for years to come. Do you really think the glut of houses on the market work their way out of the system in 6 to 9 months? Do you think the economy is going to provide enough jobs for people to buy a GLUT of available homes? That's a ridiculous presumption, and until housing starts going up on a steady basis you can forget about any sustained recovery. For those of you who think stocks aways go up, take a look at the Dow from 1929 to 1954 or from 1965 to 1982. For now our problem is massive deflation, people trying to get rid of debt they cannot get rid of, with jobs they do not have, a problem that's hard "to do" anything about. Our government - - and not that I blame them for trying - - is taking the same approach the Japanese government took with their own banking crisis, and that approach succeeded in dulling the pain but also succeeded in extending that pain out over 20 years. We have our "tit" in a ringer and it's going to stay there for a while.

Mike
Mike - Thursday November 13, 2008 03:09PM EST

Thank god for noise traders! There never has been, or never will be a mathmatical model that will predict future results in the stock market - ever single piece of software out there looks backwards and extrauplates forwared. There is ONLY ONE WAY to win on the stock market - buy and hold. If you are not making money on the market at this moment, extend your time horizon and you will. Day trading is nothing more than a brokers paradise... I love Jim Cramer, but he is a trader, NOT an investor.... to make money as a TRADER it takes MONEY - LOTS OF IT. Give anyone of these money managers enough money and time and they will make you rich, pull back on one or the other and you'll fail everytime.

Mike
Mike - Thursday November 13, 2008 03:14PM EST

The longer this down market lasts, the more wealth us value investors will have after the next 10 years. Value Investors of the world - this is OUR TIME... if you can wait 10 - 15 years.

ChrisB
ChrisB - Thursday November 13, 2008 03:17PM EST

I disagree with the guest. Warren Buffet is a prime example of somebody who has consistently outperformed the market by picking his own stocks. Now he is one of the world's richest people. While it is very difficult to identify a talented hedge fund manager, you can take matters into your own hands and outperform the market by educating yourself and making intelligent long term decisions.

Harold
Harold - Thursday November 13, 2008 03:21PM EST

If a share of stock is sold ,there is a share of stock purchased!

JoGusto
JoGusto - Thursday November 13, 2008 03:23PM EST

what is it with all the commentators with broken english? barely comprehensible commentary? Anyway.... French's explanation didn't make any sense to me. Anyone make sense of it?

- Thursday November 13, 2008 03:28PM EST

Attention Media Idiots. If you listen to these 'TARDS you will always be in the hole. BUY STOCKS NOW and Ditch the Losers. The Cost Averaging effect is awesome. 25 years of studying investment - what HORS$*IT!!!!!!

Michael
Michael - Thursday November 13, 2008 03:33PM EST

Be smart invest your money in CD's and treasury bonds.... Stocks are too risky...Just a few failing companies will tank the entire market like it has already has and now you have to worry about GM and Ford. i was long for 10 years to see my earnings evaporate in a matter of 2 months..not anymore...investor confidence is lost..possibly forever...you will buy stocks now...and a few years down the road there will be another Enron...another AiG...another WM...another Bear Sterns that will cascade every blue chip back to the stone age

AJ
AJ - Thursday November 13, 2008 03:33PM EST

Every time I see the market drop like it did today, I buy something. Maybe not a lot, but something. Yesterday it was GM - not a lot, just enough that I won't feel stupid if they devalue as well as enough that in 5-15 years it might be worth something. I'm buying for the long haul. I've got 20 years before I'm looking at early retirement. I'm buying every chance I get. It's pathetic that I get excited now when the Dow drops 300. Maybe those small stocks have outperformed the big companies, but I work for a living and don't have time to actively manage my portfolio they way a fund manager does. I'm buying into big companies that I know have a good shot at being around later and I'm spreading it around them all: Proctor & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola, Motorola, and various utilities. If you buy stocks like these now, and can afford to hold them if the market goes even lower (which I'm betting against) until it comes back up, then you're getting them at a discount - plain and simple. My philosophy in this market is "don't invest any money I'll need in the next 5 years, and when the market drops, buy more." It may not be the best strategy, but I'm pretty sure I'm going to come out well ahead!

Yahoo! reserves the right to refuse, or remove any comment that does not comply with the Yahoo! Terms of Service. The submission of spam, hateful, or obscene messages may result in the termination of your Yahoo! ID.
About Tech Ticker - Send FeedbackDisclaimer. Copyright © 2007 Yahoo! Inc. All rights reserved.
Copyright/IP Policy - Terms of Service - Privacy Policy - Help
Quotes delayed, except where indicated otherwise. Delay times are 15 mins for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges.

Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.