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Everybody Back in the Pool: Dow Soars 553 on 'Retest' Bets

Posted Nov 13, 2008 04:17pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing

Thursday provided further proof the market is dominated by short-term traders, and that most of them are using the same playbook.

Major averages ended the session sharply higher, with the Dow up 553 to 8,835.25, the S&P higher by 6.9% to 911.47 and the Nasdaq up 6.5% to 1,597. Commodity producers like ExxonMobil gave the S&P a boost, as did gains for downtrodden financials like Wells Fargo and tech giants such as Apple.

But the gains came only after a midday swoon put the indexes at or below their October lows, a level many traders were eyeing as a low-risk entry point.

At their intraday lows, the Dow was below 8,000, while the S&P and Nasdaq were below their respective October lows of 840 and 1,504.

"We are buyers as markets approach those levels again," Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ, wrote on his Big Picture blog, noting markets typically move in a pattern of "bottom, rally, retest, rally."

Since major averages subsequently rallied about 18% from their October lows the first time, traders are hoping for a repeat performance.

Whether the "retest" proves as successful as the original remains, of course, to be seen. But gains by Intel, Applied Materials and Wal-Mart after each issued reduced guidance suggests traders' willingness to tolerate — even embrace — "bad news," at least for one day.

74 Comments

Charles
Charles - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:28PM EST

Dead Cat bounce?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:31PM EST

It seems like a typical bear rally..Nothing more than that. On Monday, there is going to be a huge sell-off again for profits that will drag down the market further down below 8,000 or even 7,000. These bear rallies will continue until real good news come out.

May Day
May Day - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:32PM EST

Real industrial profits have been nil for 40 years, real wages for most workers have declined for the last 40 years. Fictive capital (i.e., finance and securities) can dance up and down, but workers are screwed until we fight directly to end capitalism. No amount of BushObama socialism-for-the-rich will solve cure the fundamentals. Prepare to fight a revolution, or prepare to die on your knees as slaves.

GordonJ
GordonJ - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:35PM EST

Now if it will only survive the "OBAMA PLAN"

Henry
Henry - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:37PM EST

Dow still likely to take out the October low so be careful. Where is the HUGE volume turnaround that normally marks a sustainable low ?? Not here yet ? Not this time ?? Hmmmm

andrewm
andrewm - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:39PM EST

YES SHORT SHORT SHORT!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:40PM EST

you two will still be watching while the rest of ride the rally.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:44PM EST

Suckers Rally. Just keeping the fools who are still fully invested in mutual funds in their 401k's from moving to money markets. Hope-ium is a powerful drug.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:45PM EST

And, the shorts started covering their butts, but tomorrow is another day

Mario A
Mario A - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:47PM EST

Is/Was this a 'dead-cat' bounce? Thoughts?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:47PM EST

Just another rally for losers. I would like it to be sustainable but I am sure it is just another bait to catch another bunch of victims. Where is the logic here? Where is a single piece of good data supporting this rally. Some analysts will be writing tomorrow, that the market has already accounted for all the bad economic figures. I've heard this some 2 weeks ago during the last rally. The analysts have to justify their existence and comment. They have to make for living so let's let them to do their jobs. They have absolutely no clue what is going on. This is a big game now. No logic behind it. After every new low will be a rally. It is simple, nobody wants to miss the bottom, so every time the new low triggers a jump. But it is a long way to go to reach it (bottom). We will be tired with all this new lows .... and one day, when the economy will start showing sustainable signs of recovery it will be missed by most of us. Good luck.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:47PM EST

And, the shorts started covering their butts, but tomorrow is another day

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:47PM EST

Riding the rally...we'll wait for you right here at 8300 and then we can ride the rest of the way down together when you get back. :)

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:55PM EST

When everybody is sick of it, like the posts here, it time to gett back in and ride it. See ya later, big profits ahead till the end of the year.

Tom
Tom - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:55PM EST

Pump and Dump!

Michael
Michael - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:55PM EST

almost bottom, but not yet we are at 9/11 levels but with real problems.

Michael
Michael - Thursday November 13, 2008 04:59PM EST

almost bottom, but not yet we are at 9/11 levels but with real problems.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday November 13, 2008 05:00PM EST

Like I predicted,sucker rally.Will be in the negative 500 to 600 by tomorrow or monday.Am I a psychic or speculations foreseeble?

henry
henry - Thursday November 13, 2008 05:04PM EST

if you made some money cash out. back to the dumps

georgeg
georgeg - Thursday November 13, 2008 05:31PM EST

Clearly this was Traders working with someone esles money to gererate commissions. Housing no action, Cars no Action, Credit Cards no action. This translates to more Job losses, less retail spending, more forclosures. This means a lower stock market i say we will see a new low before Thanksgiving. Mayor Daly of Chicago just said he is being told by the big Corps in his city that massive layoffs are on the way in Nov. and December. XXXXX Want soime solid purchase bottom advise start readingg the "Classified Ads' when the banks start hireing loan officers to replace the ones that used to be employed we are going to grow.. until them sideline the money.

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