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Everybody Back in the Pool: Dow Soars 553 on 'Retest' Bets

Posted Nov 13, 2008 04:17pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing

Thursday provided further proof the market is dominated by short-term traders, and that most of them are using the same playbook.

Major averages ended the session sharply higher, with the Dow up 553 to 8,835.25, the S&P higher by 6.9% to 911.47 and the Nasdaq up 6.5% to 1,597. Commodity producers like ExxonMobil gave the S&P a boost, as did gains for downtrodden financials like Wells Fargo and tech giants such as Apple.

But the gains came only after a midday swoon put the indexes at or below their October lows, a level many traders were eyeing as a low-risk entry point.

At their intraday lows, the Dow was below 8,000, while the S&P and Nasdaq were below their respective October lows of 840 and 1,504.

"We are buyers as markets approach those levels again," Barry Ritholtz, CEO of Fusion IQ, wrote on his Big Picture blog, noting markets typically move in a pattern of "bottom, rally, retest, rally."

Since major averages subsequently rallied about 18% from their October lows the first time, traders are hoping for a repeat performance.

Whether the "retest" proves as successful as the original remains, of course, to be seen. But gains by Intel, Applied Materials and Wal-Mart after each issued reduced guidance suggests traders' willingness to tolerate — even embrace — "bad news," at least for one day.

74 Comments

P
P - Thursday November 13, 2008 05:35PM EST

screw u shorty

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 05:42PM EST

This make absolutely no sense whatsoever! Earnings are down, huge lay offs are coming, the consumer is afraid to borrow and banks won't lend unless you are related to a republic Senator. Interest rate are rising as shown by the 10 year bond, there are no small business loans going on unless you have an 800 credit score and willing to pledge your first born child and a kidney. The government will no longer buy the "bad loans" and even if the auto-makers get bailed out there are going to be over 1 million jobs affected. The dow rose 552 point -What's wrong with this picture!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 05:50PM EST

A dead cat doesn't bounce as high after the first bounce (friction). I agree with the observation that short covering occurred as we tested October lows. Too risky to stay short at that point even though market news is still sour and layoffs are cranking up. Is there room to the upside? Sure. But I think there is some hope that more tax dollars are on the way to bail out the auto industry. Who is John Galt?

Michael
Michael - Thursday November 13, 2008 06:05PM EST

May be a Dead Cat/Suckers rally but I will take it. We all need some good news and this was unless you shorted at the lows. There will be another test of the low but for now today was a good one and I will take it and be prepared to fight another day.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 06:23PM EST

All these comments like "short now" or "buy now" are interesting. What happened to buy and hold investors? What happened to conventional investment strategies? If you have a 5+ year time frame, dividend producing stocks are a great place to be. Why not get paid a dividend while we wait for the rally? We don't know when stocks will rise again or how long it will take but we all know it will happen. Closed Ended Funds, like ETO, are trading at large discounts to their NAV, they're down 60% from their highs, and they're paying an 15% dividends. These CEs own large companies that will be around during the rally. While you're at it, don't forget the spread on corporate bonds is fantastic. It's a good time to be putting money into a diversified portfolio for the long-run.

Tad
Tad - Thursday November 13, 2008 06:23PM EST

All these comments like "short now" or "buy now" are interesting. What happened to buy and hold investors? What happened to conventional investment strategies? If you have a 5+ year time frame dividend producing equities are a great place to be. Why not get paid a dividend while we wait for the rally? We don't know when stocks will rise again or how long it will take but we all know it will happen. Closed Ended Funds, like ETO, are trading at large discounts to their NAV, there down 60% from their highs, and they're paying an 15% dividends. These CEs own large companies that will be around during the rally. While you're at it, don't forget the spread on corporate bonds is fantastic. It's a good time to be putting money into a diversified portfolio for the long-run.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 06:28PM EST

this is a terrible trick on the investor. everybody need to get out of this market as it is going to 4000 before it hits its bottom..

pinoyboy
pinoyboy - Thursday November 13, 2008 06:32PM EST

I don't care if this market will dance high and low for awhile. In about five to eight years, my investments will be worth it. It's already is...... :))

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 06:37PM EST

tadlutz;;;enjoy watching your money evaporate as you collect your dividend. any person is this market will watch their money go bye bye . it reminds of the slowly boiling a chicken. if you bring the heat up slow enuff you can actually KILL the bird before he knows what is happening. GOOD LUCK.

TimZ
TimZ - Thursday November 13, 2008 07:07PM EST

Buy today sell on friday this is fun.

Bill
Bill - Thursday November 13, 2008 07:09PM EST

Ditto the above, another dead cat bounce or suckers rally. Not testing the bottom but a volatile market about to drop further. I really want to see the exhaustion of a post-bear market and stable prices, then a slow climb. But that's not going to happen until all industries are showing signs of improvement - right now ALL industries are showing signs of decline (banking, real estate, manufacturing, retail, tech, etc).

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 07:13PM EST

That fat guy in the picture above looks like an AIG executive having fun! There's no reason for the market swing we saw today. Just the big boys having fun with all the little boys. Nothing has changed. No jobs. No raises. Health care out of control. Living expenses still too high. Hidden debt that no one will pay down. Including our own government's. I'm not going into the pool until all the suckers come back out and the pool boy has cleaned it.

Lori
Lori - Thursday November 13, 2008 07:25PM EST

All posts here are amateurs. You amateurs really need to learn how to trade to take advantage of market volatility. Be like a pro and trade for cash flow. For example, today was perfect day to sell put options when you saw the market bottom. Also, you could have bought some stock and sold some near month at-the-money calls. By selling the puts and calls you generate lots of cash.

ANTHONY
ANTHONY - Thursday November 13, 2008 07:25PM EST

YOU BUY ..THEY SHORT..YOU BUY ,, THEY SHORT. .. THE BOOMERS ARE HEADED FOR THE NURSING HOME .SO WHO IS GOING TO BUY ALL THIS STOCK.. .EVEN THE TREASURY HAS BEEN"SHORTED"... I WONDER WHO IS REALLY BUYING .. IREMEMBER SEEING A WHEEL BARREL FULL OF REICH MARKS 1923 .TO BUY A "LOAF OF BREAD"....ITS NOT EVEN MONEY NOW .. ITS A PAPER CHASE

Mark
Mark - Thursday November 13, 2008 07:31PM EST

And the sheep will continue to nibble, dreaming of the greener grass on the other side; but the fence is higher now, fortified by the dying carcasses of blood-drained companies whose debt is now the responsibility of loyal, law-abiding citizens whose only fault is playing by the rules. Imagine, to be a millionaire, one only had to have a stack of 100-dollar bills a mere 40 inches in height; but what is the national debt right now, you may ask? Well, imagine a stack of 100-dollar bills stretching 31 miles into the sky, and that would be the national debt. Keep on nibbling sheep, eventually your dreams may come true. Nostramarcus puts the Dow at 7000 on April 1. April fools!...no way it'll be that high. More later on what went wrong. I am yours, Nostramarcus

Hon Loke
Hon Loke - Thursday November 13, 2008 07:33PM EST

We should use P/E ration to value the market value right?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 08:18PM EST

Go ahead Quin take a dip. But remember to sell the peaks. Just what economic issues have been worked out?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 08:51PM EST

the market seldom makes sense.

Paul
Paul - Thursday November 13, 2008 08:52PM EST

This article, and all the related comments, including mine, are useless, pointless, valueless brain farts.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday November 13, 2008 08:56PM EST

... so many negative comments.... it is time to get into the market.... wish had money to invest now.

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