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Peter Schiff: 'Opportunity of a Lifetime' in Gold, Intl. Assets -- Not U.S. Stocks

Posted Nov 21, 2008 04:39pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities

The stock market's staged another wild ride Friday before ending sharply higher on news Timothy Geithner will be named Obama's Treasury Secretary.

As stocks "reflated" Friday, so too did gold, which appears to be reemerging from its slumber.

The precious metal rallied $51, or 6.9%, to $800 per ounce Friday, and investors can expected "much bigger moves ahead" for gold, says Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital.

A longtime gold bull, Schiff believes the dollar's "phony" rally will soon end. To his credit, Schiff admits being caught off guard by the greenback's recent bounce, but believes efforts by global central bankers to fight the credit crunch will lead to devalued currencies, and higher commodity prices. (To his greater credit, Schiff has gotten a lot of things right in recent years, unlike most others.)

Gold's recent slump — it remains more than 20% below its summer highs — is partially due to the "massive margin call" hitting U.S. financial firms, Schiff surmises. That process has created the "opportunity of a lifetime" in foreign stocks, currencies, and commodities, says the author and noted bear.

But it's not too late to sell U.S. stocks, which Schiff believes have another 5 to 10 years of bear market action ahead as America struggles to come out from under a mountain of debt.

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223 Comments

TimR
TimR - Friday November 21, 2008 04:56PM EST

Schiff's been a bear on stocks for so long that of COURSE he would eventually be right sooner or later. Don't forget how he said in 2003 that stocks were certain to go down... Being 5 years too early is the same as being wrong.

ussinvest
ussinvest - Friday November 21, 2008 04:59PM EST

Word of advice: own the physical and not the paper. Good luck getting your hands on any of it. If you do, please post where, when and how you took delivery plz.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday November 21, 2008 05:02PM EST

If you listened to his advice in 2003, you would be much further ahead today than if you ignored it.

MichaelC
MichaelC - Friday November 21, 2008 05:06PM EST

Wow, a "bull" on gold is cheering on a momentary gold rally. OK, whatever. The dollar was over inflated and precious metals overpriced for over 5 years. Now that metal prices are getting a whiplash return to reality this guy is freaking out. Anybody who thinks the US trend is going to lead to a "5 to 10 year" bear market just doesn't understand the situation. European markets and currencies are far worse off. Debt is a universal problem. Everyone is headed down, but the US has a much better chance of staying on top (unless, of course, Obama actually does try to implement his socialist policies.)

Ilian
Ilian - Friday November 21, 2008 05:08PM EST

This guy is fantastic. People would be wise to listen to him. He predicted all this years before.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday November 21, 2008 05:09PM EST

Ha Ha. 5-10 more years of the bear. You've got to me kidding me. And thats true historically why? No wonder people are scared to death. Lets see what Mr Schiff's invested in and THEN, ask youself why he's big on gold and international. A bet against the US economy, has historically, always be a bad bet.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday November 21, 2008 05:11PM EST

Schiff is right on. My prediction, $925+ gold by year end. Commodities and other precious metals will go along for the ride. Equities will continue to trod along, but will not have the gains seen in gold/metals.

Kilty
Kilty - Friday November 21, 2008 05:14PM EST

Odin be praised!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday November 21, 2008 05:15PM EST

Schiff is right on. My prediction, $925+ gold by year end. Commodities and other precious metals will go along for the ride. Equities will continue to trod along, but will not have the gains seen in gold/metals.

sentiment
sentiment - Friday November 21, 2008 05:16PM EST

being wrong on timing is expensive. Yes he was right eventually. Not quite that being 5 years early is the same as being wrong. His 2003 predicts did not account for the aggressive resistance to an easier earlier correction. the intensity of that correction now resulted. If he was right in 2003 we would be in a much different status now - now in recovery instead of a more intense shock and recovery when?

william
william - Friday November 21, 2008 05:17PM EST

He is right for one reason, the consumer doesn't even want your money, not at 1%. They are income capped and debt loaded, the house is down the 401 K is down. American's will sell into every rally that trys to occur. Watch and see he is right bear market for ten years

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday November 21, 2008 05:19PM EST

ebay

The_Wind_Gods
The_Wind_Gods - Friday November 21, 2008 05:19PM EST

These export driven commodity economies like Canada and Australia also sell to US, in Canada's case MOSTLY to US....so if as Schiff sez US is "too broke to buy anything" then how is buying commodity exporters suppose to make money....by selling to Asia? OK, Canada also sells to China, Asia....but still mostly to US......seems like "opportunity in a lifetime" in his recommendations could take about the same time as US to get out of this mess.....

Jordan
Jordan - Friday November 21, 2008 05:23PM EST

Peter Schiff is absolutely right. This is the closest the US as a whole has even been to bankrupcty. The Fed has been inflating like mad to keep out of recession just as it does every other time, this time though its not working and all we have are more and more dollars. More dollars, same amount of gold, higher gold prices.

JARAA
JARAA - Friday November 21, 2008 05:23PM EST

Creating digital money from nothing and credit-debt economies are becoming extinct, as these are American inventions. America will be forced to resort to outward fascism, or become a 3rd world country; and the people will not tolerate 'war for economy'. Government conspiracies like 911 won't succeed anymore, because of the growing awareness that the government conducts these operations to establish PR support for wars based on economics... under the guise of 'terror attacks'. To survive, the elites will simply establish a "neo-aristocracy"; just like what has always been done historically. The new middle class will support the upper classes, based on gold possession and self interest. The artificially low prices in monetary metals are designed by the financial elites to establish this new middle class, and to increase gold circulation to their benefit. Case in Point: For everything that the public has expected to happen regarding the dollar and the fed, the OPPOSITE has occurred. We have gotten deflation and dollar strength, when most intelligent economists called for dollar collapse via hyperinflation. Therefore, I submit that the Fed banks will stealthily acquire more gold, even as they suppress the price. This could be done by aggressively shorting the paper gold markets with long put options, resulting in spot price pressure. Then they could acquire physical gold without driving up the prices. It may come where commodities need to be traded for other commodities and rare items. Gold won't be the traded currency, but it will be the standard of wealth because it will be necessary to acquire key commodities, like oil.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday November 21, 2008 05:28PM EST

Looking at some comments here... Many are still in the denial phase. We are in the "lost decade". Schiff was correct in 2003, it's the market that's been wrong all these years... fools.

Stephano
Stephano - Friday November 21, 2008 05:30PM EST

If you do not believe what Schiff says, you will know what you have in your hand end of this year, specially end of 2009. Still if you have doubt on him read his book "Crash Proof" what he predicted so far. You do not need to believe if the US future is good and the current economic problem will be solved, but you should undersatnd how we got here and what happened in great depression 1929.

Sluggo
Sluggo - Friday November 21, 2008 05:31PM EST

Schiff's alarmist viewpoints should help with his book sales too...

Justin
Justin - Friday November 21, 2008 05:33PM EST

Ha Ha. 5-10 more years of the bear. You've got to me kidding me. And thats true historically why? OK, I'll tell you where your history can help inform you. Japan in 1989 and the resulting "lost decade". Just watch our interest rates drop to similar levels (zero)...before inflation skyrockets and they're forced up (which may take longer than Schiff seems to think)!

michael
michael - Friday November 21, 2008 05:35PM EST

If the american economy goes down we bring the world with us. Who is going to buy China's goods, India's Outsourced Services, Russian and Middle Eastern oil. China's economy is 1/4th size of ours. It takes the combined economies of the EU to rival US. Again, where the US goes the world follows, the same is true for their stock markets.

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