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Peter Schiff: 'Opportunity of a Lifetime' in Gold, Intl. Assets -- Not U.S. Stocks

Posted Nov 21, 2008 04:39pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities

The stock market's staged another wild ride Friday before ending sharply higher on news Timothy Geithner will be named Obama's Treasury Secretary.

As stocks "reflated" Friday, so too did gold, which appears to be reemerging from its slumber.

The precious metal rallied $51, or 6.9%, to $800 per ounce Friday, and investors can expected "much bigger moves ahead" for gold, says Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital.

A longtime gold bull, Schiff believes the dollar's "phony" rally will soon end. To his credit, Schiff admits being caught off guard by the greenback's recent bounce, but believes efforts by global central bankers to fight the credit crunch will lead to devalued currencies, and higher commodity prices. (To his greater credit, Schiff has gotten a lot of things right in recent years, unlike most others.)

Gold's recent slump — it remains more than 20% below its summer highs — is partially due to the "massive margin call" hitting U.S. financial firms, Schiff surmises. That process has created the "opportunity of a lifetime" in foreign stocks, currencies, and commodities, says the author and noted bear.

But it's not too late to sell U.S. stocks, which Schiff believes have another 5 to 10 years of bear market action ahead as America struggles to come out from under a mountain of debt.

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223 Comments

tmorro k
tmorro k - Friday November 21, 2008 05:35PM EST

What mental institution are you blogging from, empiretp?

Average Joes
Average Joes - Friday November 21, 2008 05:36PM EST

Where would his "opportunity of a lifetime" be if he was president of GM? How about if he was president of Citi? Or maybe even Starbucks? The answer: cars, credit, coffee. Yeah, let's take a look at his personal portfolio (all of it).

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday November 21, 2008 05:36PM EST

If you look at a US dollar you'll see "This note is a legal tender for all debts, public and private". There's a huge demand for greenback currently because people are trying to pay off their debts. Gold cannot be used to pay off debt. I personally do not see any use for gold other than a possible "store of value". If the central bank can fulfill their duty in making sure prices are stable (neither inflation or deflation) then the dollar will be both be useful as a "medium of exchange" and "store of value". Gold may go well above $1000, but if it does I think it's a bubble that will burst sonner or later.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday November 21, 2008 05:39PM EST

911 Conspiracy? I always get a good chuckle out of some of these posts. You actually make a good point on how the trading play/ploy could be developed. However, I think you are missing the boat on a couple of things: Hyperinflation was expected due to rising oil costs and the net result of those costs on food, transportation, etc. As goes oil, so goes the inflationary pressure. And that's certainly not to say that the "printing press" mentality won't ultimately lead to hyperinflation down the road.

Sol
Sol - Friday November 21, 2008 05:39PM EST

Quoting this poster "The dollar was over inflated and precious metals overpriced for over 5 years. Now that metal prices are getting a whiplash return to reality this guy is freaking out. " What planet is this clown from? Paper gold and silver (ETF) COMEX prices are not the same real gold and silver prices. Try buying and taking physical posession either at near the COMEX spot price. Rising gold and silver prices have been fought by the Fed and every central bank in the world for the last five years. It is the only way they can make fiat currency look "attractive". But that is okay. Lots of investors have been buying as much as they can get their hands on. Time will tell if they were saavy or foolish. I will say this. I'

Sol
Sol - Friday November 21, 2008 05:39PM EST

Quoting this poster "The dollar was over inflated and precious metals overpriced for over 5 years. Now that metal prices are getting a whiplash return to reality this guy is freaking out. " What planet is this clown from? Paper gold and silver (ETF) COMEX prices are not the same real gold and silver prices. Try buying and taking physical posession either at near the COMEX spot%2

Sol
Sol - Friday November 21, 2008 05:40PM EST

Quoting this poster "The dollar was over inflated and precious metals overpriced for over 5 years. Now that metal prices are getting a whiplash return to reality this guy is freaking out. " What planet is this clown from? Paper gold and silver (ETF) COMEX prices are not the same real gold and silver prices. Try buying and taking physical posession either at near the COMEX spot price. Rising gold and silver prices have been fought by the Fed and every central bank in the world for the last five years. It is the only way they can make fiat currency look "attractive". But that is okay. Lots of investors have been buying as much as they can get their hands on. Time will tell if they were saavy or foolish. I will say this. I'd rather be holding gold and silver right now than equities. And I'll probably be saying the same thing 5 years frrom now.

Maddog
Maddog - Friday November 21, 2008 05:47PM EST

Gold is a commodity anymore just as oil. If it can be mined for $250 an ounce and sold for $800, good for the gold mining companies. It will eventually correct also. It's just another investment led bubble as was oil, flipping houses, electricity (via Enron, the dot.com bubble, the S&L debacle, ad nausium. An excess of capital is trying to find anything it can to exceed inflation. Where will it go next? Or perhaps the stock market Bubble bursting has burst the excess capital bubble too. It may be a correction but it's gonna hurt.

WilliamG
WilliamG - Friday November 21, 2008 05:52PM EST

I took delivery of physical gold (AGE's) yesterday from my local dealer, and just received a package today from an online dealer for some gold eagles. Really happy after the rally today!!!

Kiwi
Kiwi - Friday November 21, 2008 05:53PM EST

Schiff is like a broken clock...right 2x day. If the USA goes into the toilet so will the rest of the world. Why do you think the rest of the major int'l indices are down a lot more than we are? We sneeze, they catch cold. Peter Schiff is an opportunist, an aberration a dot.com rerun during a credit crunch.

chanhpen
chanhpen - Friday November 21, 2008 05:53PM EST

I can't wait 10 or 5 years to see is he right or not. Market behave ussualy opposite to what the press says. If Schiff can tell me what will hapenned with market Monday or next week I wil believe him. But predict in 2003 that stocks eventully will fall? Exuse me as I know they fall every decade, so I predict that stocks eventually will rise and after will fall, I'm new Oracul.

Jim
Jim - Friday November 21, 2008 05:54PM EST

US Eagle Proof 1 Oz Gold-Box & Certificate $950.00 $1100.00 1 Oz Gold Bullion Bar - Pamp Suisse With Cert $808.00 Out of Stock 100 Gram Gold Bar-Pamp Suisse (3.21 Ozs) $2565.00 $2665.00 10 Oz Gold Bar - Pamp Suisse With Cert $7980.00 $8330.00 Kilo Gold Bullion Bar-Pamp Suisse/Cert (32.15 Oz) $25460.00 $26460.00 California Numismatic Investments Dealers in Quality Rare Coins And Precious Metals 525 West Manchester Blvd. Inglewood, CA. 90301-1627 1-800-225-7531

healthy
healthy - Friday November 21, 2008 05:56PM EST

I bought Schiff's new "little" book, have to read it. To buy Gold/Silver and not pay a premium over spot, open a CBOT futures account. There are some mini lots available, then TAKE delivery. Read: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/optioninvestor/06/goldsilverfutures.asp

Mulholland
Mulholland - Friday November 21, 2008 06:00PM EST

De-coupling by the BRICS is only a matter of time. Each year their growth is and will be greater then the USA.

Thomas
Thomas - Friday November 21, 2008 06:05PM EST

it is good to have a little gold.I bought some years ago,as for now caveat emptore. BEWARE OF ALARMISTS!

Nick
Nick - Friday November 21, 2008 06:10PM EST

Peter Schiff is an intelligent man. I give him credit for calling the most recent (2 years) of economic troubles. However, he has indeed been a bear for more than 2 years. Here is my take on things. Look around you. As both businesses and individuals scale back on spending, the only way to intice folks to spend is to cut prices. Home prices are continuing to go down down down. This means cheaper homes for those that can afford to purchase and less equity for those that are already in a mortgage. Retailers are rolling-out their holiday sales very very early. Huge discounts on everything from laptop computers to big screen to TVs to clothing. This is called deflation - not inflation. Japan went through a similar period of deflation when their markets bottomed. With deflation, EVERYTHING is worth less...homes, autos, boats, raw land, TV sets, and yes precious metals. Also, in so far as buying the stocks in other countries...who do you think they sell to? The USA has been and continues to be the largest consumer market in the world. If Americans can't afford to buy (which is what Mr. Schiff is suggesting), then those far off multinational corporations can not sell (it's a two way street). One last thing. We live in the information age now. I recall how much effort it took to buy and sell stocks in the past (I was a stockbroker in the mid-80s). Today anyone with a laptop can get realtime stock quotes from the other side of the globe. This means that everything happens faster. Sure, after the crash of 1929 it did take decades for stock prices to get back to their historical highs. But this is 2008. Communication, technology and cooperation means that money can flow in and out of markets much faster. No one is going to ring a bell to tell us that we have finally hit bottom. But, rest assured, when we do bottom-out, the climb back up will be swift...and a lot of folks are going to miss the boat. http://www.creditmanagementworld.com

ofdo
ofdo - Friday November 21, 2008 06:11PM EST

does gold pay a dividend? can you eat it? other than selling it to a greater fool, there is no use to it what a douchetard - spreading fear and panic

puma
puma - Friday November 21, 2008 06:12PM EST

There are sound opinions and beliefs expressed here, but the overwhelming majority are absolutely STUPID! Wake up, do your homework, and you can smile!

Dimitri
Dimitri - Friday November 21, 2008 06:13PM EST

jeeeeeeze! I just love all these conflicting comments. I'm a gold bug because I follow it "intellectually": it explains a lot. Looks to me as if the dollar has met its match (greed), just like Ron Paul warned. Dollar hegemony is on its way out. Watch when administrations change. There will be a flurry of "summit" meetings (these guys don't actually meet on mountain tops, do they?), and something totally unexpected will pop up. Like an Obama proposal for an international currency not tied to the existing dollar, and Au based. Eeeek! Can you stand it?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday November 21, 2008 06:18PM EST

Don't write him off. Study history...longer than 15 years back. It took about 20 years to recover stock prices from 1929's global recession, and only because of WW2. Japan's Nikei was 39,000 in 1989; it's below 8000 today, still down 80% after almost 20 years! It has happened before. You owe it to yourself and your family to consider the possibility of a 5-10 year painful bear or sideways market and how to be positioned for it. Give it more than a passing thought.

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