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'Crisis Only Just Beginning': Right About the Crash, Peter Schiff Sees More Pain Ahead

Posted Nov 24, 2008 01:55pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession

There's a popular YouTube clip called "Peter Schiff Was Right" that shows the president of Euro Pacific Capital engaged in on-air debates with financial luminaries such as Art Laffer and Ben Stein, circa 2006-07.

The clips show the wisdom of Schiff's dire forecasts — and, judging from the dismissive reactions, just how far he was outside the mainstream.

Ben Stein publicly apologized to Schiff in a New York Times column, but Laffer refuses to admit defeat, recently telling Bill Maher his economic forecasts have a statute of limitations of just nine months.

To his credit, Schiff isn't declaring victory, noting "100% of my forecast hasn't panned out," most notably "a major collapse in the dollar" that leads to a spike commodity prices.

As discussed in the accompanying video, Schiff believes the recent dollar rally and commodity price weakness will prove temporary. Most troubling, he says the "economic crisis is only just beginning."

Click here for part one of my interview with Schiff.

(Note: The accompanying video was recorded Friday afternoon.)

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268 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 24, 2008 02:34PM EST

What Schiff doesn't know/say is that all other countries are in same boat as US. Every country has budget deficits and trade deficits except a couple of countries as such...Also, because of the crash we lost 10s of trillion dollars and compares nothing compared to the trade deficits and budget deficits we have... The reason taht the whole economy is falling is because of lost of confidence and every bank and investment firm is trying to short/sell other bank/investment stocks...and it is a viscious circle of killing each other...that is what causing the total failure...

Stan S
Stan S - Monday November 24, 2008 02:35PM EST

ALL I WANT TO KNOW IS "WHERE WERE ALL THESE FINANCIAL GENUISES AND SOOTHESAYERS BEFORE EVERYTHING HIT THE FAN?" AND WHY WOULD ANY OF US LISTEN TO THEM NOW?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 24, 2008 02:36PM EST

Everyone is looking for a hand out, the realtors now want the Government to subsidize the morgage market interest rates.The same group that made huge commisions selling overpriced property to people that couldn't afford it with no money down. They were laughing all the way to the bank, now they want Government intervention to help them out. Such BS, they need to spend time in prison.

John
John - Monday November 24, 2008 02:36PM EST

Vote Ron Paul

LanceS
LanceS - Monday November 24, 2008 02:36PM EST

Yes, Schiff was wrong on one point, he did not anticipate the US dollar bubble of 2008. I do believe the dollar bubble will be bursting over the next couple of years, however.

jeremy k
jeremy k - Monday November 24, 2008 02:40PM EST

At any given time there are millions of people predicting every possible type of future. Because one person happens to be right doesn't mean he's a genius.

Chay-nun
Chay-nun - Monday November 24, 2008 02:40PM EST

The US Government penalized savers and subsidized reckless speculation. This is the fruit of the Government's unspeakable negligence and incompetence.

First L
First L - Monday November 24, 2008 02:41PM EST

The only way to fix this problem is to manufacture goods in the US and sell them. We have to produce more then we consume.

Darrell
Darrell - Monday November 24, 2008 02:42PM EST

A house has the value of 1 house, period. Art Laffer was acutally arguing that artificially high loan dollars on homes means "more wealth". That's ridiculous!

Aaron
Aaron - Monday November 24, 2008 02:44PM EST

Stan S - I"m not saying he got everything right (esp timing) or all his current forecasts will come true but the whole point is that Schiff, among a handful of others, WAS warning before the s*hit hit the fan. Did you watch the video? Or click on the YouTube link. - Aaron Task

Mike
Mike - Monday November 24, 2008 02:44PM EST

We are in what history will come to call THE GREAT RECESSION. WE MUST bite the bullet now and deleverage - it's painful, I can promise you that, but it's medicine we MUST TAKE. We charged up the debt, we shouldn't expect our children and grandchildren to pay for it. What a pathetic legacy :(...

Mangojulie
Mangojulie - Monday November 24, 2008 02:44PM EST

Particia25. You're right about the need to create manufacturing jobs, and Schiff has been saying it for years. However, you're both wrng about some of the spending on infrastructure .. yes, it is increased spending but it's an investment in the future. Would you rather have crumbling infrastructure? Also, we're in a recession - some deficit spending is called for. Most economists support that. Even Schiff inadvertently admts it ... the problem was deficit spending when times were good. That's when you should be balancing the budget, not NOW! That would be economic suicide.

Fillup
Fillup - Monday November 24, 2008 02:44PM EST

I've listen to Peter Schiff aand was impressed. I think he is the Harry Browne of my day. I think the problem is with the American people of today. In the 1950's Americans were discribed as hard working frugal people. Does that sound like the people you know? It seems that they are addicted to shopping. If they got money they spend it. Work now must be avoided at all costs. With a negative savings rate we have to barrow from other countries. Humor is now bad taste and at someones expense. Silly conduct is now glorified. If I could ask Mr. Schiff one question it would be, " does he think that common stocks are a flawed investment? More of us are starting to think so (can you say bond funds).

george
george - Monday November 24, 2008 02:46PM EST

I agree in theory with you Patricia. It is also time to limit the imports into the US from China and other Asian nations that do not share the human rights and environmental standards we Americans live by each and every day. American companies can not compete with slave labor and lack of enviromental standards of the Asian economies. We need to produce products here in the US and protect the jobs of American workers by significantly increasing import tariffs and encourage goverment investment in newer high tech manufactring processes. During a recent drive through Southern California, Arizona and Nevada we discussed utlizing the vast open spaces for the utlization of solar panels and wind energy production. Goverment investment in such a program would generate significant employment opportunities for Americans while decreasing the demand for imported oil. The goverment can apply restrictions on contractors to only utilize domestic suppliers which would further increase employment. This would not be a bail out or hand out but an investment in our future. Just a thought.

Eric W
Eric W - Monday November 24, 2008 02:47PM EST

Crisis? (puff...puff) What crisis? (puff...puff...pass). The market's going to rally back to 14,000 any day now (exhale).

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 24, 2008 02:47PM EST

This guy is full of it. In his book, he says put everything in foreign investments in the local currency. If I'm not mistaken, foreign stocks have gotten hammered harder than U.S. Stocks. I don't hear him mentioning that.

Luke
Luke - Monday November 24, 2008 02:52PM EST

...Bill Fleckenstein wrote about this senario for at least the last four years. Government intervention is prolonging the pain over the haul.

Free Texas 2012
Free Texas 2012 - Monday November 24, 2008 02:52PM EST

In sorting out who to listen to, Schiff definitely has a better track record that either Art Laffer or Ben Stein, both of whom are brilliant men. I would always go with the guy with the best track record until he doesn't have the best track record anymore. Schiff has been right on track and I will follow his thinking regarding hyperinflation until he proves he does not know what he is talking about. Many others have already fallen out but Schiff still leads.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday November 24, 2008 02:52PM EST

Schiff is the man. Problem is that reckless spending was being done in every capitalist nation, and the US housing bubble was the link on the chain that busted first...wham... domino effect all over the world. When the bull market resumes, people will go to commods and emerging nations, but will stay far from the US, that's when the dollar collapse will unfold for good.

ANTHONY
ANTHONY - Monday November 24, 2008 02:53PM EST

CALIFORNIA"BROKE",NEW YORK"BROKE,LOUISIANA"IMPOVERISHED",MICHIGAN"NEAR POVERTY STATUS"PENNSYLVANIA"ALWAYS BROKE",NEW JERSEY"OVERTAXED",LAND AMERICA"DESTITUTE",...WHATS GOING TO HAPPEN IN2009????.ANY GUESSES ON WHO IN CORPORATE AMERICA "AINT GONNA MAKE IT". IN 2009.....LOOKS LIKE A HOUSE OF CARDS TO ME....OR SO IT SEEMS....

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