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Recession Remedy: Big, Bold and Quick Stimulus, More Help for Homeowners

Posted Dec 02, 2008 03:32pm EST by Aaron Task

Unless the government takes "big, bold and quick" action, the U.S. economy is headed for its deepest recession since World War II, says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist of IHS Global Insight and author of Spin-Free Economics.

Even if the government moves "quickly and massively" — i.e., a stimulus package in the $500 billion to $700 billion range — "the best we can hope for is turnaround over the summer," Behravesh says.

One fundamental problem of the bailout effort to date is the lack of focus on renegotiating mortgages to help stem the decline in home prices, the economist says. Rising foreclosures continue to put downward pressure on home prices nationwide, which is compounding the problem.

Big banks JPMorgan, Citigroup and Bank of America have announced such plans, but "the biggest surprise so far is the Bush administration hasn't deal with it," Behravesh says, echoing comments from Elizabeth Warren, chair of the bailout oversight panel.

"Years of flat wages, low savings and high debt have left America's households extremely vulnerable," Warren told the NYT. "You cannot repair this economy if you can't repair those families, and I'm not sure the people directing the bailout see that as their job."

Originally, Behravesh thought the TARP plan would tackle the issue of mortgages directly. But last week's announcement that the Fed is going to buy billions of mortgage-backed securities from the GSEs shows the task has been outsourced to the central bank.

249 Comments

Brett
Brett - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:38PM EST

I say we should make the dividend and capital gains taxs cuts permanent. Most lawmakers fail to understand that the market can quickly discount that change in future taxes into today's market prices, immediately increasing the wealth and purchasing power of Americans. I believe permanent tax cuts, along with reducing Gov't spending, would be a more effective stimulus than pork barrel spending or passing out money filled envelopes.

Whit Chambers
Whit Chambers - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:40PM EST

Bottom Line. How can anyone have confidence when the investment banks are crooks, and the government is worse.

Perpetual Praise
Perpetual Praise - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:47PM EST

I would like to recommend that the government adopt a program to reduce interest rates on mortgages down to 2% or 3%. This would do 2 things: 1. It could possibly saving some homeowners from losing homes who may be on the verge of losing them by making their homes more affordable. 2. This would also cause an immediate surge in causing others to starting refinancing and also buying homes. 3. This would also assist is injecting a boost of confidence into the financial markets. These things are almost a sure thing for turning the economy around at a more rapid rate.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:48PM EST

Maybe you should just get OUT of the system!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:49PM EST

Agree with BAMAJOR's comments, make the dividends and capital gains tax cuts permanent.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:54PM EST

What knuckle heads! A stimulus package will pull us out of a severe recession? Extend credit that isn't available? What we need are manufacturing jobs...that provide real goods and income. Where is $100billion there, $9 billion there coming from??? Not to mention the $800 billion of taxpayer money spent 2 months ago from.....

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:55PM EST

The local property ( school taxes ) are killing the Homeowners.

david
david - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:55PM EST

Trust the government? OK, let's try this one example. Sometime in Feb. 2009 I will need to hook up some sort of electrical "thing" to my TV or my set will no longer work. And....where is this "thing" being made? Would I be correct by quessing China? Sure there is a $30 rebate or something, but that money will be heading right over to Asia. And... the cost will be picked up by the American taxpayer. So long as we keep supporting foreign companies our own country will not have a chance of getting out of our mess. What's the next program? Will Americans be requirred by their government to invest in foreign stocks, or else their 401's will no longer be there for them?

ClaytonV
ClaytonV - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:55PM EST

All this talk of renegotiating mortgages, bailing out those who are about to forclose, and making it easier to get the loan in the first place is getting very old to me. How about the middle class family that does everything in their power to pinch a nickel tight and barely make their payments, but they seem to make them every month and on time. What about those families? Where are the bailouts for those who have done the right thing, not for those who will use the bailout as a crutch until further help is sent to them. Help yourselves Americans, and realize your limits! Not only are you hurting yourselves, but others. Just look at what has happened. You can blame the banks all you want, and yes, they are at fault as well, but if you make a combined income of $40K per year, you cannot afford a $200K mortgage. It's that simple!

Steven
Steven - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:56PM EST

i am tired of hearing about all of the people who own homes and are in pre-foreclosure mode and wanting to help them. my question is what about the rest of us that make our payments on time everymonth are were going to get some help????? our values have depreciated to the point of maybe we should just walk away from our homes alos???

Alfred
Alfred - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:57PM EST

k81k81 - If someone could do all you noted in your message you would of done it a long time a go. Typical pump and dump.

Obediah
Obediah - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:57PM EST

Our Government is essentially organized crime syndicate; what they are doing is sealing the doom of our once great nation- forcing US into a socialist & ultimately Orwellian State of tyranny.

w g
w g - Tuesday December 02, 2008 03:58PM EST

Home prices NEED TO ADJUST! Bubbles cannot be re-inflated because the conditions that originally caused them no longer exist. Painful to lose equity but prices are set by the ability to pay, and responsible lending standards coupled with an employment downturn dictate LOWER home prices, PERIOD. Nothing should be done except allow the marketplace to orderly adjust through foreclosures.

Whit Chambers
Whit Chambers - Tuesday December 02, 2008 04:01PM EST

It is not the mortgage debt for most homeowners, it is the oppressive property taxes that make owning a home no longer a good investment. Government taxes, government pensions, government this and that are killing us.

Elmer
Elmer - Tuesday December 02, 2008 04:01PM EST

I also agree with bamajor's comments.

william
william - Tuesday December 02, 2008 04:04PM EST

Still waiting CEO's to jail please, raise top tax rates to the levels they were in the early 60's. Don't forget it is a progressive tax I pay 33% you make more you pay more, up to and including 90%! Solves crisis overnight.

Coconut Harry
Coconut Harry - Tuesday December 02, 2008 04:06PM EST

For any gov't mortgage rescue plan to be fair at all, it should be available to all of us, not just the slo/no payers. So, if the gov't backs mortgages at 3% for 30 years with no points, all of us should be able to renogotiate our loans. One other thought I had was to deduct the new, reduced monthly pmt from the borrower's W-2, just like the gov't takes it's taxes out of your paycheck first, it can also take the gov't mortgage pmt out first. This leaves what's left over for the borrower's other bills and discretionary spending. See, one big reason mortgages default is because there's no money left from the paycheck to make the pmt, so the slo/no payers don't pay. Just some thoughts..........

william
william - Tuesday December 02, 2008 04:08PM EST

Wrong on the TAX CUTs we did that, rich got richer and poor did alright Middle got screwed. Now its time to leave the tax rates where they are and increase top tier to 95% DO NOT eliminate capitol gains and reinstate the home profit deal unless you sell and repurchase. No two homes profit on with no taxes Look at history EVERYTIME tax rates are dropped for the richest americans we have a recession or depression! EVERYTIME!!!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday December 02, 2008 04:08PM EST

The one bright spot in this dismal economy is housing, while still way overvalued is finally becoming affordable for more people. Is that such a bad thing? Why is that a crisis?

william
william - Tuesday December 02, 2008 04:09PM EST

Duh! Finally you half way get it???!!!!! Years of flat wages, low savings and high debt have left America's households extremely vulnerable," Warren told the NYT. "You cannot repair this economy if you can't repair those families, and I'm not sure the people directing the bailout see that as their job."

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