Friday, December 25, 2009, 5:42PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed for Christmas.

Unemployment Rate Could Reach 8.5-9 Percent, Economist Says

Posted Dec 03, 2008 07:00am EST by Aaron Task

Friday's jobs report is expected to show payrolls dropped 325,000 in November, which will be the 11th consecutive month of declining payrolls. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 6.8%, which would be the highest since 1993, Bloomberg reports.

If that's not bad enough, "it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist of IHS Global Insight and author of Spin-Free Economics. Unemployment will peak in the 8.5% to 9% range sometime in late 2009, Behravesh predicts, noting the economy typically turns around (he thinks mid-summer) before employers start hiring again.

And if the Obama administration fails to deliver the "massive" fiscal stimulus Behravesh says is needed, the unemployment rate will ultimately top the current post-World War II high of 10.8%, reached in 1982.

But what about all those "worst crisis since the Great Depression" comments? Earlier this week, Ben Bernanke said there is "no comparison" between the current environment and the Great Depression.

"The stress [in the 1930s] was a lot worse anything we've been through so far, or are likely to go through," Behravesh says, citing the following key distinctions:

  • Using the current Labor Department measures (i.e., an apples-to-apples comparison), unemployment in the Great Depression was probably closer to 30% than the oft-cited 25% level.
  • There was no FDIC, Social Security, unemployment insurance or other "safety nets" in the 1930s.
  • The Fed was "in denial" in the 1930s.

While very critical of Hank Paulson for his "chaotic" response, Behravesh gives Ben Bernanke's Fed high marks for aggressively attacking the crisis.

That's a debate for another time but there's no debating Bernanke's Fed has been, in Behravesh's words: "Pumping [money into the economy] like crazy and doing unorthodox things."

109 Comments

Elmer
Elmer - Wednesday December 03, 2008 08:57AM EST

We have had enough bailouts. We need to let them take affect and that will take at least 6 months to a year to start showing any results. If Obama goes a head with his full stimulus package then it will just create inflation which is only good for the Old Money Rich.

rockjock1037
rockjock1037 - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:05AM EST

time to go back to the barter system

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:06AM EST

America they say on crisis.......No never.....We just fail because of crooks and corruption. and greed.........That is why we are on the mess... That mess is wide open....Everybody knows.......That is why all avenue of solution and alternative will be tried.....Of course there is a pain and one of it is UNEMPLOYMENT of course it will rise but it will come down too once all the solution is tried and took effect.....No magic formula.......Again with in six months thing is better once all the laternative is working......Economic conditon will improve by that time so the job prospect too....What we see is now why not we point ahead 3 to 6 months or even one year,.....Again Unemployment is only temporary.......Be optimistic sometimes not what we are see now....Please be look ahead of our time........

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:12AM EST

This what I said,there will be no gain if there is no pain.......How you gain if you do not like the pain........

madhukar
madhukar - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:15AM EST

evrybody is still in denial mode people didn't know they were living through great depression until 1933 they were celebrating recovery of markets in early 1932 It is always more painful in hindsight This time it is a global depression and since there is no monetary and fiscal discipline like gold standard,M3 disclosure we will have an inflationary stagnation of most economies worldwide Be nimblefooted with your purchasing power[can't say cash anymore coz it'z trash]

Mike
Mike - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:23AM EST

The great depression also had a food crises due to the dust bowl. Hopefully, we will not have that again. This depression will be more about the lack of manufacturing in the US. We must start making our own products again. This christmas, try to buy domestically manufactured products. Give an american a job for a change. Its always struck me as odd that we will give to people asking for change on the street, but will not buy a product made by our brothers & sisters.

James T. V
James T. V - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:25AM EST

Your bringing on too many know it alls, where were all these “pros” one year ago? I know, I know, they said more than two years ago this is what would happen. Yea, right. As one floor trader recently said, "I wish they would shut up and let the capitalistic system work". How right he is.

peter
peter - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:27AM EST

Yes indeed the Depression was world wide but worse in the US. In the UK it was called The Slump. I think it shows how low we have sunk when Blodgett shows up again & again on this page considering with his record he should be the first Match or Apple seller on Wall St. What all these phony gurus overlook with their talk of recession ending next year or so is that we are drowning in debt Federal, International Trade & Personal. That is far far different from the 30s. Till that is expurged either by Bankruptcy or Inflation (prob both!) our problems will continue. In reality the US Standard of Living is going to experience a major & permanent decline as we get our house in order & can compete with China etc. That will occur when the dollar collapses. Finally though Congress & the Gov. got us into this mess I do not see anyone there offering to work for $1/yaer!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:29AM EST

TO JOHNNY IKE I wish I knew what you're writing, because you post a lot but, and not to be nasty ,can't you at least try to make sense

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:31AM EST

Can someone please tell me just how do you figure the world is being flooded with cash???????? All these bailout loans and give away's are not translating into cash dollars, euros or any other currency. It's all 000's on an electronic ledger being used to pay off CDS contracts which are also 0000's on a ledger. You won't get hyperinflation until all those 000's are monetized and that ain't gonna ever happen!

williw
williw - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:34AM EST

The problem with the current economy is simple, and the fix is just as simple. Everyone (individuals, companies (both private and public), and governments) all have to stop spending outside of their incoming income, credit has gotten us into this problem and the only way out is to stop the madness that allowed people without income to get loans they can't repay. The same needs to be said for companies, I think bailing out banks and others who created the problem by giving people credit beyond their means to repay it, is tossing more money on a fire that still burning out of control and will only lead to more bailout money being needed. It has to start at the Government level, no more spending more than we have income for (and for those of you stupid enough to think the money spent on the war on terror is the sole cause of the deficit spending, please do some research first). The government has no business spending money they don't have and the ability to simply print more without having any security behind it is what has lead to the dollar being a weak currency. Corporations have to take responsibility for trying to force feed products and services onto a public that clearly can not manage their own finances. There are only a few major purchases that should ever be made on long term (24 month or longer) credit, homes and cars. Here is a real hint, if you can't afford the payment, then don't make the purchase. If you can't read or understand the contract, then don't make the purchase. If you are paying 900 a month for rent and struggling, why would you think you could pay 1,500 a month on a house payment. Live within your means, and guess what you will be OK.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:36AM EST

Cowboy says... Under no circumstances should you rely on Washington bureaucrats for information; they're all bought and paid to forward someone's agenda. Take care of yourself and your family, don't get caught up in the theater. Live frugally, work hard, save and invest your money, you'll come out of this OK. Don't rely on the Government for anything. If you can't get a job, create one. Don't resort to blaming, take responsibility for yourself and your actions. If you don't like your situation, change it today.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:37AM EST

The trade deficit is going up with China; it was 27.8 for the month of September. We have a dependence on China for products that we can no longer produce. It is a terrible and dangerous dependence that americans have on China. They make it worse with manipulation of the yuan vs the dollar.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:44AM EST

My vision always ahead of our time......I do not look today....I look always in the future........3 months and beyond..........That all I see...........

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:45AM EST

Read about the depression of 1873 you will see eery similaritys to our current situation. We will be lucky if unemployment only hits 8 or 9%, but I think were looking at 10 to 12%. Dig in and hold on

fe
fe - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:50AM EST

Hey kerry b, the depression lasted from 1929 until early 1942 due to WWII, things were ticking up in the late 1930's and a president can only propose, not enact laws so where was congress at that time ? FDR entered office in 1933, over 3 years into the depression, where was the fed at (hiding, being lazy and in denial) ?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:51AM EST

"The Federal Government of the 1930s wasn't borrowing money from China and unborn generations to finance it's operation." *** You are mistaken, this government is stealing rather than borrowing money. It has no intention of ever repaying. In case you haven't noticed, the hedonistic 1960 hippies are now in the drivers seat and they don't believe in reality. The "leave it to beaver" generation is no more.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:54AM EST

Read the post by Slugabug, it is terrific. I wish I had said it.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:56AM EST

See the report,productivity is better in Q3.........Which mean all are getting better in the end of the horizon......See the headlines and read your paper.......

Jose
Jose - Wednesday December 03, 2008 09:58AM EST

adjust your stochastic oscillators and look for a rise to 10000 on the DOW.

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