Friday, December 11, 2009, 11:18PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
Friday's jobs report is expected to show payrolls dropped 325,000 in November, which will be the 11th consecutive month of declining payrolls. The unemployment rate is forecast to rise to 6.8%, which would be the highest since 1993, Bloomberg reports.
If that's not bad enough, "it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better," says Nariman Behravesh, chief economist of IHS Global Insight and author of Spin-Free Economics. Unemployment will peak in the 8.5% to 9% range sometime in late 2009, Behravesh predicts, noting the economy typically turns around (he thinks mid-summer) before employers start hiring again.
And if the Obama administration fails to deliver the "massive" fiscal stimulus Behravesh says is needed, the unemployment rate will ultimately top the current post-World War II high of 10.8%, reached in 1982.
But what about all those "worst crisis since the Great Depression" comments? Earlier this week, Ben Bernanke said there is "no comparison" between the current environment and the Great Depression.
"The stress [in the 1930s] was a lot worse anything we've been through so far, or are likely to go through," Behravesh says, citing the following key distinctions:
While very critical of Hank Paulson for his "chaotic" response, Behravesh gives Ben Bernanke's Fed high marks for aggressively attacking the crisis.
That's a debate for another time but there's no debating Bernanke's Fed has been, in Behravesh's words: "Pumping [money into the economy] like crazy and doing unorthodox things."
Our employment rare is increasing in Arkansas. State revenue is also increasing. Stores re full of shoppers. Doubt anyone is saving money. If folks keep buying more then they sell problems will increase. The balance of trade must balance for the money to have worth. Inflation, big time is on the way.
johnny ike you are truly visionary.....so what your saying is that we have nothing to worry about and everything will soon be business as usual ......bye the way say hello to mrs clause will ya
Deflation, wrong, inflation is still over 3% this year. The problem stems from bank policies, greedy behavior has been rampant in financial institutions. So the answer for bad behavior is a massive give away to banks. If that makes sense, I am a monkey's uncle.
The Great Depression lasted 16 years, far longer than the downturn in any other country, all thanks to the idiotic New Deal, which , by 1937, was seen as the complete failure that we all now know it was (despite some media rewriting of history). The country had made zero economic progress after 8 years FDR and his inept and confused program, one which, hilariously enough, attempted to RAISE prices. The country would have been far better off if FDR had done nothing, rather than obstruct all attempts by the economy to recover. Taking into account the fact that trading an unemployment status for a uniform wasn't in any fashion a reduction in unemployment, the Great Depression lasted thruout WWII and only ended in 1946, 17 years after it had begun. Far and away the worst performance by any President. And the media presents FDR as a hero.
Until we face the true facts and begin to create new jobs, our decline will continue. All we have heard is how free trade, open markets, etc. will propel the U.S. to create new jobs. It is time we figure out that being a service based ecomony, with many of those jobs moving to foreign countries, is not going the cut the mustard. We can create thousands of new jobs if we will stop this foolishness of thinking we can exist in the global ecomony with reliance on other countries for oil and fail to proceed with the development of nuclear power. We EAT corn, we DO NOT use it for fuel, which we tried and failed to do in the mid-70's. We are being dupped by our politicians, who continue to throw S *** against the wall trying to see what will work to stem this financial crisis. As I have stated in numerous messages to Washington, in 2000 - 2001, the era of the Enron, Global Crossing, WorldCom fiasco, which paled in comparison to this calamity, within 6 months we had people going to jail, etc. and the loss of Arthur Andersen!!! So we are now 15+ months into a situation that is 50-70 times greater than that debacle and still no investigations, etc. Do you think the cure all, Sarbanes-Oxley failed.....Jobs will bail us out, NOT another HANDOUT from the government. There has never been a successful economy/country that is dependent on their success from handouts....
Which Fed was in denial in the 1930s? The Federal Government or the Federal Reserve (not part of the Government)? Let's compare apples to apples. The Federal Government of the 1930s wasn't borrowing money from China and unborn generations to finance it's operation. What good is a stimulus if it's paid out in Monopoly Money?
I don't think it is wise to ever believe or rely on anything said by Bernanke, Paulsen, Bush etc. They have lied or been wrong on EVERYTHING concerning this economy. We are at or beyond the breaking point all we need to happen now is a new 911-like disaster; our enemies are working hard and smart money know this. The crooks are all still on the loose designing the next fiasco.
We're in a vicious cycle - THE GREAT RECESSION - job fears and loss are the root of ALL our problems. Those who are not working can't service their debt or pay their mortgages... and those close to losing their jobs won't make any big purchases. If Obama pours money into infrastructure it will create job - but not careers, and not jobs several americans will want to or are qualified to do. The american taxpayer and our children are being fleeced - for the greedy... and it's no where near ending. The lines are forming now for any handout money they can get. At no reguard for the cost to our children and grand children. Thanks WallStreet.
Uh-oh. This is going to get a lot worse. This is about making small, positive investments. I've given a pal 25 grand for a stake in his restaurant. I'll pay another pal a grand to work on my car. I'm sending a donation to a local food bank.
Where did all this gurus get the idea that the current worldwide mess will start healing in 6 months from now? I've heard this a lot, that things will get better in second half of 2009. Nobody bothered to explain why. So please forgive me if I do not believe this to be true. Instead my gut feeling tells me that the coming recession will last at least two years and it will get bad, very bad... There's not much the Government can do about it, because the de-leveraging required exceeds the financial power of all Governments of the world together. A few things will happen: - first: asset prices will keep falling for a couple of years, until all people that can not afford the mortgage have defaulted, - second: personal debt will be cut at least in half, this will take another couple of years. Meanwhile the economy will keep shrinking... companies will go broke, etc...
Where did all this gurus get the idea that the current worldwide mess will start healing in 6 months from now? I've heard this a lot, that things will get better in second half of 2009. Nobody bothered to explain why. So please forgive me if I do not believe this to be true. Instead my gut feeling tells me that the coming recession will last at least two years and it will get bad, very bad... There's not much the Government can do about it, because the de-leveraging required exceeds the financial power of all Governments of the world together. A few things will happen: - first: asset prices will keep falling for a couple of years, until all people that can not afford the mortgage have defaulted, - second: personal debt will be cut at least in half, this will take another couple of years. Meanwhile the economy will keep shrinking... companies will go broke, etc...
First the Great Depression was mainly a USA problem, now the entire world is involved. Unemployment is rising but so is the cost of living,. We see layoffs, or firings daily in the news, banks closing, housing down, sales way off the projected mark, Stocks jumping to extremes. Four months ago while at the bank I over heard two gentleman in their 90's saying they were pulling most of their money from the bank, they lived during the Great Depression and were worried it was happening again, for the next few months I heard others like them saying the same thing. Listen to those who lived during that time, first hand knowledge beats speculation. In our small community we have had 650 lay offs already in an area of 25,000 people. Michigan is in deep trouble with the BIG 3 on the brink of failure, soon more Automotive layoffs are coming, and each time that happens not only are the Auto workers hurt but down the line, Car sales, Repairs, tires, Grocery stores, Mortgages, Day cares, Car payments, Etc... For each person fired others are affected so more are fired, we are living in the next GREAT DEPRESSION and most will not face that fact.
After being unemployed in Michigan for the past two years I've seen only one thing seem to suceed and that is the gaming industry. The State Lottery along with gambling casinos are flying high as the people of this State seem to be placing their bets on survival through Lady Luck. We must come up with an idea on how to produce something that we can make here, with our own materials, and with our own people. Funny....a few months ago a law was passed the prevented water from the Great Lakes from being sold. We spend billions on imported oil, yet we can't even sell our own natural resources to save our own hides. Why can't our leaders get it? They are selling the people of this country into slavery, and it will go on for who knows how many future generations.
First the Great Depression was mainly a USA problem, now the entire world is involved. Unemployment is rising but so is the cost of living,. We see layoffs, or firings daily in the news, banks closing, housing down, sales way off the projected mark, Stocks jumping to extremes. Four months ago while at the bank I over heard two gentleman in their 90's saying they were pulling most of their money from the bank, they lived during the Great Depression and were worried it was happening again, for the next few months I heard others like them saying the same thing. Listen to those who lived during that time, first hand knowledge beats speculation. In our small community we have had 650 lay offs already in an area of 25,000 people. Michigan is in deep trouble with the BIG 3 on the brink of failure, soon more Automotive layoffs are coming, and each time that happens not only are the Auto workers hurt but down the line, Car sales, Repairs, tires, Grocery stores, Mortgages, Day cares, Car payments, Etc... For each person fired others are affected so more are fired, we are living in the next GREAT DEPRESSION and most will not face that fact.
Do YOu know there is 55 Trillion worth of CDS Credit Default Swaps floating around the world with no transperency at all. US Govt has committed more than 7.8 Ttrillion . Where this money came from??? Some one has to pay this , right. In your life do you wish to have huge debt & feel your are happy?
We can adjust quick beause we have the technology at out time 1929 is doubtful and worse becuase they do not have technology.....Probably if in 1929 if they have the technology as ours today that crash ir depression can be averted in short space....That trouble that they have none.......Today we have information technology and all avenue of the problem is open and can be sorted in a short space of time......No thing worry...As I said previouly unemployment is just for a while.......
Other tell bad point on the economic because they will profit from it....Like pu option trader,Hedge Fund who bet against this present economics,the short seller they like doom and bust and bad things...Why they make billion profit out ecinomic downturn.....Do not be afraid and be strong built our faith and thinks will gonna be okay......As I said all just for a while........Especially we see the ebb of the down turn....Those profit from it will spreed fea and bad news.......That all....
It is all about jobs at this point. The US working class has been getting raped for the last couple decades at an accelerating pace and it has finally come to a head. The outsourcing of American jobs to cheap foreign labor, and the insourcing of cheap H1 and L1 type visas has wreaked havoc on American prosperity. We have been betrayed by our businesses and our government for a long time, and it is going to take a long, long time to get things right if ever. The bottom line is that corporate greed and corrupt government has wrecked the American dream...
The first depression of the 1930's was a world wide problem. Some countries recovered faster than others but all were suffering from bank runs and market collapses. The major difference between then and now was the flow of cash. During the great depression credit and money dried up and practically no one had any of either. In the current crisis the system is flooded with cash which should at some point turn to hyper inflation. As far as jobs creation goes??? Where are these new jobs coming from? All of our good jobs have exited this country some time ago. Anyone wanna work for fast food? How about Wal-mart? That is where the job creation is happening. Manufacturing in this country is dead. Not only that for every 5 jobs created 3 of them go to ilegal aliens. Union membership is on the drop and if any of the big 3 fail we lose more union jobs. Where is the help for the middle class? We have bailed out wall street, banking, and contemplating bailing out the big 3 where is the bail out for the middle class? We are quickly becoming a 2 class society of ultra rich and ultra poor. Tell me who and how is this mess ever going to get fixed.
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__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday December 03, 2008 07:37AM EST
it is short live.....Unemployment will come down within (3 )three to (6)six months only once all the packages of stimulus and all the previous bail-out ook effect...Employment once on the rise.........The only things all are bad at the moment,is people dont like the Mess of all financail institution,the corruption there,the Bail-out and of course people do not trust anymore,Paulson,Bernanke,Cox and Bush......Once that hated sub-side,when they are all gone a confidence will return to the market,once that is happen,Job will be created and the whole market will start full gear.........Psyclogical truma is all hunting the people mind and soon it will be gone i three to six months period........./.That will be ending condition by that time.....