Saturday, December 26, 2009, 1:18PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
Updated from 1:20 p.m. ET
Are Treasuries the next bubble? A lot of traders seem to think so after a sharp rally in Treasury prices sent yields down to their lowest levels in decades.
"There's more risk in things people think are inherently safe, [including] cash and Treasuries, vs. the things people perceive as risky," Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer said on CNBC this morning.
Before rising modestly Wednesday, the 30-year yield was at 3.197%, its lowest level since 1973 while the 10-year's yield was below 2.7%. Even after rising a bit today, yields from 3-month to 2-year Treasuries are below 1%.
Update: Treasury prices rebounded from their early decline after the Port Authority of NY & NJ was forced to cancel a $300 billion debt offering due to a lack of bidders.
Earlier: In a nutshell, Treasury yields that low (and failed offerings by other government agencies) show institutional investors remain much more concerned about capital preservation than they are in capital appreciation. Put another way, all the talk about how "cheap" stocks are relative to Treasuries has done very little to compel big money to make the leap out of the "safety" of government debt, thus far.
The same can be said of corporate bonds, where companies like H-P, Caterpillar, ConEd and Citigroup were able to raise billions this week but at yields far above comparable Treasuries. Ironically, Citigroup's offering had the lowest relative yield because it now enjoys the implied backing of the U.S. government.
(A quick primer on bonds: More demand for a debt security drives up its price and lowers the rate of interest, or yield, the borrower — say the U.S. government — has to pay. If demand falls, prices drop and the borrower — say big corporations — has to entice buyers with a higher yield.)
Given the massive amounts of Federal bailout dollars being put to work, the incredible expansion of the Fed's balance sheet and the soaring U.S. deficit (these are all intimately connected of course) the "Treasuries are a bubble" view makes a lot of sense: The dollar must fall, inflation must rise, foreigners will demand higher rates on Treasuries, etc.
But a few caveats:
I HEARD HUD WILL BE SENDING "SEED MONEY" TO EVERY STATE TO BUY ALL THE FORCLOSURES ..AND RENT THEM TO THOSE WHO WERE FORCLOSED ON,, ITS A WIN WIN,AND HUD COULD PAY THE MORTGAGE TO THE BANKS ,FANNIE AND FREDDIE,, I SURPRISED CONGRESS DIDNT THINK OF IT AS A FIRST RESORT ,,WHY GIVE THE MONEY TO BANKS ,INS .CO. ... "FIRST" ,"GIVE IT TO HUD...LET THEM DO THEIR PART .
All I have to say is...diversify. We all know everyone will be a bit less wealthy in the coming years(due to inflation), the only thing you can do is try and fend it off by saving and buying inflation adjusting assets.
We must remember this: If the cost of money is zero, money isn't worth having. By lowering the fed funds rate to zero, the government is encouraging people to put a worthless commodity into play. The fed is kind of acting like a plumber, and the fed funds rate is a Roto-Rooter opening up credit lines. But, with the exception of GNMA bond funds, NAVs for bond funds—specifically, short-intermediate Ts and HY corporate bonds—are down 15 & 30% respectively. When interest rates go down, NAVs should go up. But they aren't. Something else is going on. The ratings for HY corporates might be going down and that implies higher interest rates for corporate junk, which could explain the NAV erosion for HY junk. But NAVs for short-intermediate T bond funds are also down. Since safety isn't an issue, there has to be some other reason for the convergence of asset value and yield. The reason is credit availability. If one cannot borrow money, one cannot sell bonds, and exiting debt cannot be traded. Therefore, there is no price (NAV) for outstanding debt. The bond market is crippled by fear.
Fascinating mangojulie... seems very probable.. I am curious to know what you think will happen after that?
The Pentagon only has one security camera... Treasuries are safe and George Washington cut down a cherry tree.
A bubble in treasuries? Are the writers of this tech ticker crazy or what? The government now controls the verticle, the horizontal. It's amazing how the rich are rushing into the treasuries that basically pay nothing. The U.S. government is getting a great deal on this - pay no interest for holding American debt. So our trillion dollar bailout basically costs Uncle Sam virtually nothing. Go USA !
Can you spell MUNI'S. Sure, not sexy, but relatively safe (has your Town of City gone out of business) and look at the yields, and for some of you it could be triple tax free (assuming, of course you pay taxes)
Mr. Bubble is the next to burst. He will be saved by Mr. Clean though with a bucket.
TO: Alan F (02:23PM EST) ------- LOL !!! I've got a lipstickless pitbull guarding mine.
It does fix the horrible problem of the interest on the national debt. The idea that the cost of financing the national debt is going to drag us down loses its zing when the debt is financed at almost 0%.
One thing is clear: There is a place for CD's in every portfolio based on risk tolerance of the investor. To balance the risk of paper money, buy commodities: GLD, precious metal funds, physical gold, platinum, GDX, etc. How much to allocate depends upon your risk tolerance.
Before say any B.S. people should get educated and well informed about the facts: Crooks Democrats are responsible for the destruction of the US Economy, and guess what: one of the crooks has been elected for President of this country. Obama was elected because he is a very smart crook. He made all the College's students to register to vote for him. 65% of the votes he got were from teenagers that know nothing about politics. The other 35% were dumb people that did not get the truth about the real cause of the destruction of our economy. The real truth: The Bush Administration wants to prevent this tremendous crisis BUT the Congress that is completely CONTROLED by Democracts said: NO. The Bush Administration wants strong regulations for Fannie Mae/Fredie Mac, BUT Democracts OPPOSED to it. All the crooks Democracts that were receiving FAT BONUSES from Fannie Mae/Fredie Mac through another crook named Franklin Raynes former CEO of Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac that was forced to quit because was cooking the books and putting $90B in his own pocket, as well given a lot of money to his close friend OBAMA and other Democracts, did not want any of the restrictions that the Bush Administration wants to impose. It is obvious WHY. Even the black representative from California, the Democract Maxine, said: "Mr. Raynes is doing an outstanding job" Now that Fannie Mae/Fredie Mac are bunkcrupt, together with all the other finances Institutions, and over 2 trilions are lost of our 401K, the crooks refused to take responsibility for what they did, and more, to get elected, they made Americans believe that Bush was to be blame. How Cynical! Now that they are in complete control of this country they got the dirt job to fix what they have messed up. Good luck.!
TO: Alan F (2:23) ------- P.S.: AND, your 2nd Amendment rights are protected better with German Shepards and Pitbulls, than with guns and amos. And, if the state kills your dog, you can sue the state. lol !!!
There is a way out........ Not a nice way ,but, if you've been watching and hit the net once in a while,,,,,,,,,,,,,, It is the Amero......... Yep. Everyone line up and exchange you greenbacks, peso and Canadian dollars (all you've got) for a few Ameros. The new worthless 3 country currency...... Better than becoming a new Zimbobway Check this out or go to youtube and listen to a few video clips http://www.amerocurrency.com/
TO ALL "Yahoo! Finance User"s ------- So, how the hec do u get to post anonymously? ------- Why must all other idiots must post under a username? ------- And why do "Yahoo! Finance User" posts always seem to right a falling ship, or straighten a tacking sail?
What happens when the FED starts buying treasuries with printed dollars. This keeps interest rates lower than they should be initially but will eventually collapse the dollar.
Alan F - Wednesday December 03, 2008 02:23PM EST I agree , i to have a pit bull and a 357 , 38 , 44 , 22 , 9mm, o/u shotgun ,30-06
hmmmm...crystal ball says...first deflation then inflation...so hold commodities not fiat paper....gold is KING!!! Mid 2009 They will flee the treasuries and bonds...."so it is written...so it shall be done"
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Mangojulie - Wednesday December 03, 2008 02:23PM EST
With all of the government spending and fed reserve funds being pumped into the system via issuance of Treasury bonds, you would have to be a jacka$$ to assume that rates will not climb at some point driven by all this inflation, leading to the biggest pop you ever heard. You think the real estate bubble popped? You ain't seen nothing yet. All these foreigners lending us money by buying 10-year and 30-year Treasuries are gonna have their heads handed to them when rates go up and Treasuries crash. Plus they are denominated in US currency. A double whammy when we pay them back with our toilet paper currency. Just watch.