Thursday, January 7, 2010, 3:31PM ET - U.S. Markets close in 29 mins..
A new Treasury plan to lower mortgage rates won't solve the housing crisis and is a "essentially a direct bailout of the homebuilders," says Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor.
Homebuilding stocks like Toll and Lennar surged early Thursday, a sign Roubini is not alone in sharing this view.
Using Fannie, Freddie and other GSEs, Treasury will "encourage banks to issue new mortgages at lower rates by offering to purchase securities underpinning the loans at a price equivalent to the 4.5% rate," according to the Wall Street Journal.
The plan will be effective in lowering rates but interest rates aren't the key to resolving the housing crisis, Roubini says: "Prices went through the roof" and need to fall another 15% before housing bottoms and homes become affordable to the majority of Americans. (The new Treasury plan does nothing for Americans looking to refi but last week's Fed announcement was aimed, in part, to help existing homeowners and refi activity surged in reaction.)
Furthermore, there's not enough Americans who are credit worthy and confident enough in the economy and/or their job security to absorb the record levels of unsold homes on the market, says the notoriously bearish economist. "For new programs you have to qualify. Very few people qualify," Roubini said. "If you are loosening the criteria then you are creating a credit risk for the government because you're creating mortgages people cannot afford and some of them are going to default. You create another fiscal problem down the line."
That being the case, about the only people who benefit from this new Treasury proposal are the homebuilders, who have been lobbying for a bailout. Unfortunately for the rest of us, it looks like their efforts have paid off.
Roubini is not all there- home prices have already fallen to well below replacement levels- and there are mortgages to be had- you simply have to qualify- lenders are adhering to strict underwriting guidelines- if you are in the market for a new home or a re-sale, this is an outstanding time to get in.
The ability to refinance at 4.5% will be a boon to the country's crisis of bad mortgages. Many people will refinance and the number of bad mortgages will fall tremendously. Also it will get the housing market moving again, thus producing more jobs and help get the economy moving again. It sounds like a good step in the direction.
Paulson is an @$$! The majority of homeowners are not able to refinance!!! Most owe much more on their homes then what they are worth nowadays, some even have 2nd Mortgages or Equity loans. To fix this problems the principles need to be written down to normalize everything. Hasn't he noticed that the default rates on Prime Mortgages have EXCEEDED the default rates on Subprime mortgages for the last 5 MONTHS!!! These are the people that are gainfully employed, have fixed rates.. but can't see why they should bother paying on something that has lost almost 50% of it's value in the last year alone! They see all these unemployed sub prime borrowers who got Arm's and other irresponsible loans who are now getting the benefit of the doubt and are being bailed out! It's completely @$$ backwards.... I for one am cutting my losses filing for Chp 7 BK, and working on getting my 30 year fixed home loan modified.. Nothing like rent seeking!!!! Now's the best time!
The ability to refinance at 4.5% will be a boon to the country's crisis of bad mortgages. Many people will refinance and the number of bad mortgages will fall tremendously. Also it will get the housing market moving again, thus producing more jobs and help get the economy moving again. It sounds like a good step in the direction.
The majority of homeowners are not able to refinance!!! Most owe much more on their homes then what they are worth nowadays, some even have 2nd Mortgages or Equity loans. To fix this problems the principles need to be written down to normalize everything. Hasn't he noticed that the default rates on Prime Mortgages have EXCEEDED the default rates on Subprime mortgages for the last 5 MONTHS!!! These are the people that are gainfully employed, have fixed rates.. but can't see why they should bother paying on something that has lost almost 50% of it's value in the last year alone! They see all these unemployed sub prime borrowers who got Arm's and other irresponsible loans who are now getting the benefit of the doubt and are being bailed out! I for one am cutting my losses filing for Chp 7 BK, and working on getting my 30 year fixed home loan modified.. Nothing like rent seeking!!!! Now's the best time!
Roubini has no clue - lower rates will help homebuilders and all the unemployed construction workers and all the ancillary suppliers to the construction industry. Lower mortgage rates are the only thing that will turn this economy around - it is still a supply - demand market and increasing demand will reduce supply.
Whoohoo! Finally a bailout for me personally! Everyone gets a piece of the pie! Can't wait for 4.5% so I can refi!
Lowered interest rate could act as a short spur to move up the mortgage market, which is not a bad idea to beef up this drying US market. And, any solution like this will help the US market right now since it is dying in an unprecedented speed. It cannot be, however, a sound and long-term solution to fix the debt fueled and driven economic growth. As other readers suggest, mortgage banks and lenders will not really increase its mortgage lending just because of lowered interest rates. They have been tightening their credit doors way up high since the crisis ruined their balance sheets. If this lowered interest rates could somehow directly benefit refinancing applications and gradually open the lenders' doors, I'm sure they will start to open their credit doors to purchases, too. We got stuck with too much of a historic mortgage mess now for this lowered interests to break in and make it through. And, it will take at least 6 months for these lowered interests to affect the economy including the mortgage market. Lenders and banks got burned so much already, and that's why they have no choice but to hesitate. We need a little more time like 3 - 6 months.
Do you have anything positive to sa?. What a joke. I'm looking forward to you and Blodget turning bullish at the next market peak.
For those who think you can avoid property taxes by renting. WRONG. Rent includes a portion of the building owners property taxes. In areas with inflated house prices renting makes sense. In other uninflated areas, buying makes sense. My mortage/taxes is $550/month for a 2400 sq. ft. house in middle America. Renting 2 br apt. runs $700/month. Plus in 10 years when its paid off, I will be paying $150/month. Key is buying a house thats not overpriced. Its the reason Id never live in CA, FL, MA, DC, or any other area with overpriced housing.
WE LUMP IT ALL IN NEW HOUSING Imagine the Baby Boomers trying to retire on like 2-3% money markets or -40% stocks....there goes America's big spenders and there goes the young peoples' future job slots, the Baby Boomers will never retire now until they die, they can't afford to. You young college grads better get used to flipping burgers for a while, if those jobs aren't all gobbled up by illegal aliens and uncontrolled immigration population....lol
2 things. Johnny, your right. The people benefitting will be those who didn't speculate or go after these creative financing which is what got us here in the first place. Too many idiots think they can make a quick buck are now burned and asking for help. Sorry no. Banks should not be helping them, when they knew what they bought was not within their means. Whit, it interesting how suddenly one become another typical polictian of coverups when they are busted. If this is a non-issue, Obama would have easily just said "Here my birth certificate!" and put this issue to rest. But to request a dismissal is more like he is hidding something. Let's see what happens, hopefully the Court will not dismiss this as it is part of the Consititution requiring that the President is American born. Maybe we will end up with another election and Hilary will be the next President and Obama the Secty of State.
What Roubini is saying is CORRECT based on my recent experience. I spoke with a mortgage broker yesterday (12/03/08) about refinancing out of my 3/1 ARM (resets every 12 months) into a 30 year. She told me there's no reason to do it because the ARM reset is so close to the current 30 year rate. Imagine this for a second: a mortgage broker talking you out of a refi. I know: insane! Welcome to the new economy...
Paulson is an @$$! The majority of homeowners are not able to refinance!!! Most owe much more on their homes then what they are worth nowadays, some even have 2nd Mortgages or Equity loans. To fix this problems the principles need to be written down to normalize everything. Hasn't he noticed that the default rates on Prime Mortgages have EXCEEDED the default rates on Subprime mortgages for the last 5 MONTHS!!! These are the people that are gainfully employed, have fixed rates.. but can't see why they should bother paying on something that has lost almost 50% of it's value in the last year alone! They see all these unemployed sub prime borrowers who got Arm's and other irresponsible loans who are now getting the benefit of the doubt and are being bailed out! It's completely @$$ backwards.... I for one am cutting my losses filing for Chp 7 BK, and working on getting my 30 year fixed home loan modified.. Nothing like rent seeking!!!! Now's the best time!
Me thinks Jonny Ike make good cents.
Man I have been such an idiot. I paid my bills on time, lived within my means for years. All I should have done was buy a $750K home, max out my credit cards, fall behind on my mortage and the government would step in with a bailout for me. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
Paulson is an @$$! The majority of homeowners are not able to refinance!!! Most owe much more on their homes then what they are worth nowadays, some even have 2nd Mortgages or Equity loans. To fix this problems the principles need to be written down to normalize everything. Hasn't he noticed that the default rates on Prime Mortgages have EXCEEDED the default rates on Subprime mortgages for the last 5 MONTHS!!! These are the people that are gainfully employed, have fixed rates.. but can't see why they should bother paying on something that has lost almost 50% of it's value in the last year alone! They see all these unemployed sub prime borrowers who got Arm's and other irresponsible loans who are now getting the benefit of the doubt and are being bailed out! It's completely @$$ backwards.... I for one am cutting my losses filing for Chp 7 BK, and working on getting my 30 year fixed home loan modified.. Nothing like rent seeking!!!! Now's the best time!
Man I have been such an idiot. I paid my bills on time, lived within my means for years. All I should have done was buy a $750K home, max out my credit cards, fall behind on my mortage and the government would step in with a bailout for me. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
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Brent - Thursday December 04, 2008 11:30AM EST
It's always better to own than rent. Lower rates will help some people. these are all baby steps, but will help some people.