Monday, December 14, 2009, 5:18PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
A new Treasury plan to lower mortgage rates won't solve the housing crisis and is a "essentially a direct bailout of the homebuilders," says Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor.
Homebuilding stocks like Toll and Lennar surged early Thursday, a sign Roubini is not alone in sharing this view.
Using Fannie, Freddie and other GSEs, Treasury will "encourage banks to issue new mortgages at lower rates by offering to purchase securities underpinning the loans at a price equivalent to the 4.5% rate," according to the Wall Street Journal.
The plan will be effective in lowering rates but interest rates aren't the key to resolving the housing crisis, Roubini says: "Prices went through the roof" and need to fall another 15% before housing bottoms and homes become affordable to the majority of Americans. (The new Treasury plan does nothing for Americans looking to refi but last week's Fed announcement was aimed, in part, to help existing homeowners and refi activity surged in reaction.)
Furthermore, there's not enough Americans who are credit worthy and confident enough in the economy and/or their job security to absorb the record levels of unsold homes on the market, says the notoriously bearish economist. "For new programs you have to qualify. Very few people qualify," Roubini said. "If you are loosening the criteria then you are creating a credit risk for the government because you're creating mortgages people cannot afford and some of them are going to default. You create another fiscal problem down the line."
That being the case, about the only people who benefit from this new Treasury proposal are the homebuilders, who have been lobbying for a bailout. Unfortunately for the rest of us, it looks like their efforts have paid off.
If you haven't gotten your own bailout yet, it only means you're haven't been a big enough failure. Get out there and screw up your life and the politicians will reward you.
What about the killer property taxes?
I agree. interesting about Obama's B cert.. You would think that would have been sorted out well before the election.. crazy.. and what reason could he possibly have for not wanting to produce it and get the matter out of the way as quickly as possible? Very odd...
If the cost of debt is lowered it artificially supports a higher property value. It is just another way for the housing market to support inflated costs. If anything raise the lending rate to 10% and see the lenders, REITs, and real estate investment funds sweat for a while. They just want to be able to justify their overvalued assets with a unrealistic CAP rate. First year real estate finance class folks. Don't think they are trying to help the consumers. It is all propaganda...
Interest rates are not the problem!! When will they realize the banks are not doing loans? The banks are still holding all the cash and will not give mortgages regardless of credit or situation!!!!
Property taxes if you can not afford to have your own home...Why bother to pay propety tax.......It is better to rent.......that is the answer........somple as that...No problem.......
Alway have a good deal to but property otherwise you will regret in the end if anythings goes wrong.........Do the best bargain you can.....Deal always at your favor and advantages......Bad deals get out......Find the best interest charges on repayment.......always find a good deal without cheating you........To avoid regret......
We can have foreign born Presidents now? That's OK with me. Arnold in 2012!!!
They are doing partially what I had e-mailed to the Fed Res Board of Governors. They need for the Fed to loan funds directly to the consumers with risk premiums, but without the banks as a middleman so as to eliminate that extra profit margin they charge. Since banks aren't loaning much money, the Fed should step in with this function. The real issue is that even though the Fed is lowering the Fed Funds rate, the typical consumer is not able to really take advantage of it. Why? Banks are charging ever higher risk premiums for the same credit scores from a year ago is the problem. Let these lower rates charged banks come through to the consumer and you will see real recovery. And these lower rates should be for all with a risk premium added in based on credit scores, not just for those who are delinquent or in trouble. Why? To ensure that more consumers also do not have problems in the future. Lower rates make it easier to pay off loans and less likely loans will become delinquent. Especially lower rates like 3.5 or 4% can make people decide to buy rather than rent, when the payment is less than rent rates. I know how to get the economy going and help almost all people, rather than just selectively bailing out certain industries which helps a relative few of the populace. Why can't the Fed do this?
Interest can go to 2.5% there is not enough people creditworthy to afford all these mortgage today. by next year the unemployment rate will be between 7.2 to 8% people need jobs not low interest dam it....
how can this only be helping homebuilders? lower rates allows more people to afford homes, will help reduce inventory, makes payments more affordable. Nothing good can be said about this? Roubini is a bitter bubblehead renter.
Corruption and greed at its worst.....that's all I have to say
The benefit here is the value of the jobs created by an increase in home builiding. A refinancing doesn't put anyone back to work, but, a new home construction creates jobs.
This professer is a moron. Housing prices need to drop 15%...AT WHAT INTERESt RATE! ? 5 1/2? Hey if we raised it to 6 1/2 would prices need to drop 20%?. Econ 101; the lower the interest rate the more that can be afforded (ie higher priced homes) and whats this about excluding refi's, seems like putting more money in the hands of consumers via lower monthly mortgage rates would help this economy, kinda mini stimi....or we could continue the rape of our treasury and give more money to the very people who created this mess.... (the american investment bank scandal )...investment banks.
4.5% rates for deadbeats? What about responsible people who have 6.5% fixed rates? They get screwed. The lowest rates for deadbeats should be fixed at current real world rates. Extend number of years if need to be make them affordable 40,50 or 60 years if need be. Simply handing deadbeats cheaper rates at the expense of people who live within their means is just plain wrong. Using lowball rates to try and reinflate the real estate bubble is wrongheaded. The homebuilders should be moving towards low cost housing. Revisit the old Levittown model from the post WW II period. Basic no frills houses that people can add on to when they can afford it; houses real people can afford. Not McMansions that cost half a million bones.
Paulson is an @$$! The majority of homeowners are not able to refinance!!! Most owe much more on their homes then what they are worth nowadays, some even have 2nd Mortgages or Equity loans. To fix this problems the principles need to be written down to normalize everything. Hasn't he noticed that the default rates on Prime Mortgages have EXCEEDED the default rates on Subprime mortgages for the last 5 MONTHS!!! These are the people that are gainfully employed, have fixed rates.. but can't see why they should bother paying on something that has lost almost 50% of it's value in the last year alone! They see all these unemployed sub prime borrowers who got Arm's and other irresponsible loans who are now getting the benefit of the doubt and are being bailed out! It's completely @$$ backwards.... I for one am cutting my losses filing for Chp 7 BK, and working on getting my 30 year fixed home loan modified.. Nothing like rent seeking!!!! Now's the best time!
Now we have change the law so Hilary can get a job..
Paulson is an @$$! The majority of homeowners are not able to refinance!!! Most owe much more on their homes then what they are worth nowadays, some even have 2nd Mortgages or Equity loans. To fix this problems the principles need to be written down to normalize everything. Hasn't he noticed that the default rates on Prime Mortgages have EXCEEDED the default rates on Subprime mortgages for the last 5 MONTHS!!! These are the people that are gainfully employed, have fixed rates.. but can't see why they should bother paying on something that has lost almost 50% of it's value in the last year alone! They see all these unemployed sub prime borrowers who got Arm's and other irresponsible loans who are now getting the benefit of the doubt and are being bailed out! It's completely @$$ backwards.... I for one am cutting my losses filing for Chp 7 BK, and working on getting my 30 year fixed home loan modified.. Nothing like rent seeking!!!! Now's the best time!
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__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday December 04, 2008 10:57AM EST
The only person who will benefit is the person who has a good job with steady income, homest, and the motives is not a profit or gain from the property but to live to it as a home.....With no bad creditt history ..... Advantages very cheap loan charges and loan repayment but most of all the price is too low and reasonable.......Other than that is sorry the Bank is close door for them.........