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2009 Recession Will Be Severe: 'There Is a Global Deflationary Risk,' Roubini Says

Posted Dec 04, 2008 12:18pm EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession

Central bankers around the world are pulling out all the stops in order to combat a severe economic downturn that threatens to get even worse.

"There is a global deflationary risk," says Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor. "That's what central bankers are worried about."

In Europe today, the ECB and Bank of England slashed rates by greater than expected levels. Meanwhile, the Fed and Bank of Japan are taking "unorthodox actions" to pump liquidity into their economies. Both central banks are engaged in "quantitative easing," meaning rates are effectively zero regardless of what the official policy is.

"The Fed is trying to preemptively avoid a deflation trap [which] is very dangerous," Roubini says. "Whether they'll be successful or not, I don't know."

The problem, he says, is there's going to be a "severe recession" both in the U.S. and globally in 2009. That means falling demand for goods and increased slack in the labor markets. That will put further downward pressure on prices and raise the risk of outright deflation, which is defined as: A persistent decline in general price levels, typically accompanied by a severe contraction in employment and economic output.

"It's hard to undo the structural factor" of falling demand meeting a supply glut of goods and services, he says, recommending the following policy actions to try and stem the deflationary tide:

  • A "huge" fiscal stimulus package: $500-$700B.
  • Recapitalize the banks faster, i.e., get TARP money distributed sooner.
  • Rather than focusing on mortgage rates, reduce the face value of debt owed by "insolvent homeowners" in order for them to be able to spend again and avoid a "tsunami of foreclosures."
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446 Comments

Mark
Mark - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:28PM EST

socialist

Steve
Steve - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:34PM EST

Don't people realize that the actual bailout tab is now up over $8 trillion. We have effectively doubled our national debt. A debt we couldn't pay off in the first place. The $24 trillion question is, who is the holder of our debt. Clue. Offshore banking made possible by the British Crown.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:35PM EST

Deflation is made to sound like a cancer--it's not!! We must deflate before we can stabilize the economy. The deleveraging will be painful but it must be done globaly or it will not save the global economy.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:40PM EST

Recapitalize the banks faster so they can loan us our own tax money.

thumper
thumper - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:40PM EST

the economy is tanked get ready for the great deppression its getting worse

Salvatore
Salvatore - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:42PM EST

We need to involve more governament in privet companies, i mean we have to control salary to managers, and we have to make the salary from the profit, created a roof non more then that. Also, everynthing socialize is non comunist, we have to stop to be antagonist when the situaton riquire that.Otherways we have tow kind of thif, I mean uno by pen and the other one by gun Sal

william j
william j - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:43PM EST

Anyone wanting deflation is crazy, simple.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:43PM EST

We can all thank the republicans for this!

- Thursday December 04, 2008 12:43PM EST

I am downgrading the financials and real estate again and retail. Basically, if you are not in a recessionary stock, you will be downgraded. This is a positive feedback cycle and the panic we are seeing is by companies now. So, as long as the jobs keep losing, we are going lower.

thumper
thumper - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:43PM EST

get ready for the great deppression its going to get a lot worse

richard weed
richard weed - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:44PM EST

ok fellow dickweeds, what caused the problem in the first place? I think it was EASY CREDIT! and maybe expanding the money supply to BANKS! and now lets fix it by......Making MORE funny money...how clever and ingenious...Lets bail out the bailout. where MY bailout?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:45PM EST

Falling prices are bad for consumers?......hmmmm

- Thursday December 04, 2008 12:45PM EST

Unfortunately, I was too optimistic a week ago.....Depression is on the frontier. Uncle Ben needs to make interest rates zero and stop the TARP...because then the banks just hoard money. Like I have been saying all along...the consumer MUST be saved for any ground to be made.

JoshS
JoshS - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:45PM EST

I agree, it's going to get worse before it gets better, but major deflation isn't in the cards.

James T. V
James T. V - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:46PM EST

How can we start to improve if you keep parading these “after the fact” economists? Stop bringing this guy on. He’s not helping!

JamesN
JamesN - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:46PM EST

Screwed pooches are going to be dropping more puppies for sometime to come

Mr. Cheese
Mr. Cheese - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:46PM EST

Anyone know where I can get a job

- Thursday December 04, 2008 12:46PM EST

Downgrades: Commercial Real Estate. A lot of pundits think this is safe and are recommending this as a safe haven....if we have learned anything....this will be next because tech was thought safe wasn't it?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday December 04, 2008 12:48PM EST

Bear Roubini is in his element. He's been waiting for 30 years to expound his views and it will probably be 2040 before we hear from him again.

- Thursday December 04, 2008 12:49PM EST

Crime is getting out of control too. All indicators say this thing is getting worse and not in final stages...My target for the dow is now to retest 7500 and possibly break through it by 2009. More deleveraging is needed but the problem is future consumer spending has deleveraged COMPLETELY. I am predicting 12% unemployment and downgrading Simon Property Group to $25 price target.

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