Friday, December 18, 2009, 11:26PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at NYU Stern School and chairman of RGE Monitor, has earned the nickname "Dr. Doom" for his dire predictions about the economy over the last couple of years (most of which have come true).
So it was a shocker when word got out on Wall Street that Roubini was the most bullish guy in the room at a recent dinner he hosted in NYC. There were even rumors Roubini's retirement account was 100% in stocks (since confirmed).
Has Dr. Doom become a raging bull?
Not quite. But with the financial meltdown in full, protracted swing, it seems as if the rest of the world has caught up with him.
"The mainstream is getting closer to my views about a very severe U.S. and global recession," he says. "On the other side, I'm not in the Armageddon camp," forecasting a severe recession through 2009, but not a repeat of the Great Depression.
So why is Roubini's 401(k) 100% in equities? He's not an active investor, and "over 10 to 20 years equities outperform any other asset class," he says in the accompanying video.
Unlike so many others, Roubini's not calling a bottom, for sure: He sees another 20%-30% downside risk for stocks, and advises that investors avoid all "risky assets," including commodities for the foreseeable future. Instead, he recommends Treasuries and, over the medium term, corporate debt.
In case you need further proof that Dr. Doom hasn't lost his edge, Roubini predicts that macroeconomic news and earnings will be much worse than expected in the coming months, as the dollar weakens even further. "The surprise is how bad the the economy [will get]."
At least there's some things you can still count on in an uncertain world.
In 2009 STOCKS will be dirt CHEAP
Hey Aaron Task., Have him back on the Tech Ticker next year so we can compare this to what really happens.
Nouriel Roubini seems to understand this crisis very well.
Wait a little bit in 2009 to get in the market
Jail time for thiefs who stole money from the company, How dare congress belittle the auto kings when they themselves should be publicly hung for the treason they have committed in allowing the corporate raiders and monarchs to steal America's dreams. Time to raise revenue with corporate taxes adn raise the top tier tax ratre to 90%
He'll need a 30% gain to get back to where he was after that 20% drop. But my puny brain doesn't understand high finance like his does
I said the same thing to my boss as mogleytheman said above and he RAN OUT OF THE ROOM...lol I STILL HAVE MY JOB .
i enjoyed this video and the guest seemed extremely knowledgable. he is correct, every time the market moves up and then some bad news surfaces the dow once again craters. he also brings up the subject of deflation, something many analyst seem to avoid. i believe he is right, the market could drop 20-30% more and we will have a bad economy. he points out the economy by and large is consumer driven and really seems to have a grasp of the issues. well done.
In response to buying Cayman Islands...I don't want the US to buy Cayman. Afterall, they will ruin Cayman.
Who fear of deflation.....I don't and do not fear from it..Professor Roubini has a lack of research I wished he read more book and study it......So deflation removes the tax induced bias against savings.....But It had a long term benefits, as the nation save more would less vulnerable to recessinary shocks such as the one we just have. This raise a question?Why people are so feared from deflation.Partly because of cognitive biases.People mistakes.....cause ........a nasty fall in demand-for effect,a more benign fall in prices....Also deflation is unfamiliar....Then there is quilty by association....We associate deflation from the 1930 depression,Woody Guthrie and John Steinbeck.We forgot thet deflation is very common in the 19 century,and was accompanied by decent growth.....Is that a fear no....experience show it is not.......There is anotherreason why deflation is so much hated....It might ,on average, be no disaster for real people like enybody else....But it is a problem for The Stae and Government,as it means rising debts,and lower growth in tax revenue.So the government hate it...as it happening now.....Bear in mind deflation always followed by enourmous growth......What the point of Mr. Roubini scaring about deflation...My answer is he needs to go back to school of economics and read the books...Recovery and growth is laway associated with deflation.......No friend nothing to fefar from what he say...He is telling rubbish or basket case....
One advice - Do we really need guys on L1 Visa and H1B from India and other countries in USA - I bet there are enough Americans out of the job, so let's create a noise in USA to drive out the the guys who stole the job, Example: All the Major banks who have gotten the TARP funds have outsourced their IT work to Indian vendors, Let's bring the job home All the Auto companies barring Ford have outsourced their IT Work to Indian vendors. Most of the Pharmaceutical firms have done the same. Our very own Wal-Mart has also outsourced their IT work Other companies have done the same thing by outsourcing the average paying jobs in BPO, Travel reservation, Collection agencies...These are the jobs that America needs as well.. The reason this economy is in bad shape is because the imbalance of the work force... Just Thnik about it Why India, China out of nowhere started booming ---- Simple reason ---- the greediness of American CEO/CIO/CFO to cut the cost... so to all my friends --- Time to create a Noise in USA ----- Let's Bring the Job Back Home ---- The prosperity begins at our own turf and not any place else. Comment will always be welcomed
the cat is right... he knows his economics... i say one or two more three to four hundred point drops and then, start the motors bull market all the way with the messiah and barney at the helm.. can't wait.!!!!!!!!!!!!!
mogley, you obviously know nothing about ecomonics and I am glad you have no authority. Yes, corporate corruption should be punished severely, but your foolish comment to raise corportate taxes and punish the top tier tax payers who already pay the lion's share of the country's taxes would just plummet the country further into economic despair. Open an economics or history textbook and shut your mouth.
Johnny Ike - you rock dood! you are a dood right?
The only one who has called this better than Roubini has been Prechter and Prechter thinks the markets will go down a lot more than 20% more. All this gov't intervention is just making things worse.
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Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 05, 2008 07:29AM EST
Tip of the day: Sell Alaska & Hawaii to balance the budget. Buy Cayman Islands