Sunday, December 27, 2009, 1:54PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

Don't Buy the 'Stocks Are Cheap' Hype: Weak Earnings May Mean a 'Washout' in '09

Posted Dec 05, 2008 05:51pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession

Friday was another remarkable day in another remarkably wild week for stocks. After trading as low as 8,118.50 in reaction to the dismal November jobs report, the Dow snapped back in afternoon to close up 3% to 8635.42.

The market's ability to rebound and rally in the face of bad economic news is going to further encourage the bullish camp. With a number of market seers noting the market is at worst fairly valued on a long-term basis, talk of "bottoms" continues to fill the air (and airwaves).

But John Mauldin, author of the popular Thoughts from the Frontline e-letter, isn't buying the "stocks are cheap" mantra — just yet.

Mauldin predicts valuations will eventually fall to record low levels — meaning low single-digits price-to-earnings ratios — before ultimately finding a floor.

"This is going to be a longer recession we've had in a long time [and] earnings are going to be impacted a lot more than people are currently thinking," he predicts. If earnings do disappoint, today's "cheap" P/E ratios will prove to be a sucker's bet.

"You're going to see more earnings disappointments.. .those are what weigh on investors, you keep getting disappointed and disappointed," Mauldin says. "You could see a washout."

If a washout — meaning another big market swoon — does occur, Mauldin expects it will likely come this summer after a "tradeable" rally this spring.

"The next [washout] will probably be a good long-term bottom [but] I'm not putting money into the market," he says. "I'm not really excited about long-biased stuff just yet."

On a related note, for all the talk about how well the markets are faring since the Nov. 20 lows and optimism about Friday's action, the Dow still finished the week down 2.2% while the S&P lost 2.3% and the Nasdaq shed 1.7%.

111 Comments

Shankar
Shankar - Friday December 05, 2008 08:34PM EST

There is a tanking of a major economy we have to worry about http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/is-switzerland-the-next-iceland-964325.html

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday December 05, 2008 08:42PM EST

Don't invest in this market. It will go down. I was thumbing through the Econ 101 textbook I bought in 1992. It talks about how when the "baby boom" generation begins to retire from the work force, the world economy will have a recession from 2007 to 2010. I think the coming recession, or possibly depression, will end when the "global warming" scam is pushed aside and Americans get away from feeling guilty about being Americans. The last Great Depression ended with a world war and 2 atomic bombs; this global recession could end the same way. Invest wisely. I suggest setting aside enough cash now so that when the time comes you can get a pickup truck, some gold and silver coins, a shotgun, a rifle and a pistol.

uhui
uhui - Friday December 05, 2008 08:47PM EST

This guy is right, but he's missing the part about the stock market half being a pyramid scheme and half a legitimate arena to buy equities in companies. When the masses loose faith in the ponzi scheme part, the superior returns that public equities yield will fade over time, the stock market is a total scam to sucker middle class workers to hand their hard earned money to get executives rich and wall street workers even richer and everyone falls for it!! Boycott the market!

Charles
Charles - Friday December 05, 2008 08:50PM EST

we grow old so soon,and so late smart.

uhui
uhui - Friday December 05, 2008 09:02PM EST

The fed and paulson can artifically pump money into the market as much as they want, but the average person gets cleaned out in the market and they are starting to see that over and over and over again. We are heading to a moderate depression, the unemployment % doesn't take into account all of the struggling small business and 1099 workers out there who's income is being annihilated from the downturn. If you count the traditional unemployed, the unemployed that have given up on looking for a job (these stats don't show up in the rate you hear), the self-employed/1099 workers that have decreased or no income, and migrant workers that are "off the radar" but comprise a huge class of people domestically and internationally----if you group all of these people together we're probably already in the 15%+ unemployment range. If the traditional unemployment range is 10% we'll be at 20% total===The second great depression--hold onto your money as tight as you can and don't take any debt on, the future system in america will punish indebtors very hard (unlike the past)...starting with the federal government of America. I see the DOW going well down to 6500 (the second correction)...think I'm crazy, just watch and see--every securities advisor is telling baby boomers and those 10 yrs. from retirement to pull out of equities, this is going to cause a huge system wide withdrawal of money from the stock market.....and the federal government is going to have to decrease entitlement payments to seniors on those lazy people on welfare and other handout programs. We are in serious trouble, thanks to Reaganomics!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 05, 2008 09:12PM EST

SHORT Comerica Bank**CMA** they have half---YES HALF! of their loan exposure to the "big 3" and the deteriorating Michigan economy. I see their dividend being dropped or removed altogether making their inflated stock price plummet to a penny stock--the next citibank..... they have huge commercial real estate, general business loans, retail industry, and manufacuring companies, & tech industry exposure for the other half. Basically everywhere you don't want to have loans right now! First the bank's with huge consumer debt are getting hit, next up is commercial banks, it just takes time to show up on the p&l. They will lose money for 4Q 2008 and for the next several quarters, they will be bought up by one of the bigger banks but only in the penny stock range...so long Comerica, nice to know you!

Jeff C
Jeff C - Friday December 05, 2008 09:40PM EST

The Big three should have seen this coming a long,long time ago. They continually refuse to make the type of cars consumers want, at a price that they can afford. Not to mention the gas mileage that they need.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 05, 2008 09:47PM EST

This is turning out to be a fascinating battle. The bear has smelled honey in the home ( Dow

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 05, 2008 10:08PM EST

This is turning out to be a fascinating battle. The bear has smelled honey in the home ( Dow

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 05, 2008 10:11PM EST

This is turning out to be a fascinating battle. The bear has smelled honey in the home ( Dow

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 05, 2008 10:11PM EST

This is turning out to be a fascinating battle. The bear has smelled honey in the home ( Dow

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 05, 2008 10:36PM EST

This is turning out to be a fascinating battle. The bear has smelled honey in the home ( Dow

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 05, 2008 10:36PM EST

This is turning out to be a fascinating battle. The bear has smelled honey in the home ( Dow

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 05, 2008 10:45PM EST

This is turning out to be a fascinating battle. The bear has smelled honey in the home ( Dow below 8000 ). So it comes near the house. The homeowner using his limited ammunition is trying to scare the bear just enough away from his home. The bear runs away further than he needs to but then returns again. Homeowner’s ammo is getting more and more limited. So he chases the bear less this time. And on and on it goes. Each time the bear is being chased less and less further away – while the homeowner is trying to fight till help arrives ( economy improves). IS THE HOMEOWNER NOT CHASING THE BEAR COMPLETELY AWAY BECAUSE THE HOMEOWNER’S AMMO HAS BEEN DEPLETED ??? .------------------------------------ People are saying there is lot of money on the sidelines. But 2 things here, LOT OF MONEY HAS BEEN PULLED OUT BY HEDGE FUND INVESTORS AND MF INVESTORS IN DISGUST WITH NO INTENTION OF RETURNING. Secondly, AFTER SUFFERING NUMBING LOSSES, how much of the cash on hand can the investors put into the market WITHOUT CLEAR SIGNAL OF THE ECONOMY IMPROVING. Do INVESTORS HAVE ANY MORE NERVE LEFT to PUT MORE MONEY before the economy recovers in hope. In 2002, the market did not bottom until the reported earnings bottomed - so much for the market being orward looking.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 05, 2008 10:45PM EST

This is turning out to be a fascinating battle. The bear has smelled honey in the home ( Dow below 8000 ). So it comes near the house. The homeowner using his limited ammunition is trying to scare the bear just enough away from his home. The bear runs away further than he needs to but then returns again. Homeowner’s ammo is getting more and more limited. So he chases the bear less this time. And on and on it goes. Each time the bear is being chased less and less further away – while the homeowner is trying to fight till help arrives ( economy improves). IS THE HOMEOWNER NOT CHASING THE BEAR COMPLETELY AWAY BECAUSE THE HOMEOWNER’S AMMO HAS BEEN DEPLETED ??? .------------------------------------ People are saying there is lot of money on the sidelines. But 2 things here, LOT OF MONEY HAS BEEN PULLED OUT BY HEDGE FUND INVESTORS AND MF INVESTORS IN DISGUST WITH NO INTENTION OF RETURNING. Secondly, AFTER SUFFERING NUMBING LOSSES, how much of the cash on hand can the investors put into the market WITHOUT CLEAR SIGNAL OF THE ECONOMY IMPROVING. Do INVESTORS HAVE ANY MORE NERVE LEFT to PUT MORE MONEY before the economy recovers in hope. In 2002, the market did not bottom until the reported earnings bottomed - so much for the market being orward looking.

L
L - Friday December 05, 2008 10:46PM EST

Tech ticker sucks don't believe in this garbage

Sergio
Sergio - Friday December 05, 2008 11:22PM EST

Way the US government so able to control the mind of US citizen cannot control the silly pundit in the TV and take out easy the country from recession ? Way Wall Street banker cannot relief themselves if Wall Street banker rule the world ? ... frankly speaking if funny and boring in the same time to see always a not scientific demonstrable theory for everything but only for still the pundit salary. ... for my experience the Pundit are alwais 90% wrong.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday December 05, 2008 11:52PM EST

Wall Vegas is starting to become such a Joke!I laugh everyday for the dumb idiots in the stock market.Get RICH !!!--HA--!

CalvertB
CalvertB - Saturday December 06, 2008 12:06AM EST

Stocks are going to tank in 2009 along with the dollar! Check out GloomBoom.com for a different perspective.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Saturday December 06, 2008 01:55AM EST

Wait until everything settles down. My employer is planning to layoff 12,300 peope by early next year. We can have a bull market when people don't have jobs to pay for rent, food, cars, travel, gas, etc. For every white collar job, 3 to 5 people lose their job in the service industry. What's the rush, wait until it bottoms out by March 2010. Yes, that's 2010. You can't fix this economy overnight. Gas prices will climb back up. Trust me!

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