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Veteran Strategists Saut and Shobin Agree: This Bear Market Rally Has Legs

Posted Dec 09, 2008 07:00am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession

With the Dow closing at at its highest level in a month on Monday, the rally off the Nov. 20 lows has now exceeded 20%, which is the technical definition of a bull market.

Two veteran market watchers, Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James, and Steve Shobin, a former star strategist at Lehman, Merrill and AmeriCap Advisers, both believe the rally could have further to go.

Saut says stocks are cheap in the aggregate — something he hasn't been able to say in a decade. And Shobin, a technical analyst, notes stabilization in the homebuilders is another sign of a potential bottom.

While neither is suggesting the bear market is dead and buried, both Saut and Shobin believe this advance will prove longer and stronger than the prior ill-fated "bottom"  rallies of 2008.

Editor's Note: At Minyanville.com's "Festivus" holiday event in NYC last week, the main focus was celebrating community, Hoofy & Boo's Emmy, and raising donations for a worthy cause: The Ruby Peck Foundation.

But in a room full of traders, strategists and investors, it's hard not to talk about stocks, too. Tech Ticker was on hand at the event and conducted a series of interviews with various attendees, including some familiar names and names all savvy investors should know. Stay tuned, as we'll be publishing the series over the coming days.

Click here for part one: Coin-Flip: Cash King for FTN's Dwyer, Greener Pastures for Minyanville's Harrison

Click here for part two: Death to 'Buy and Hold': No Slowing Down 'Fast Money's' Macke and Adami

Note: The interviews were conducted Dec. 4 and prior to the Bacchanalian celebration that ensued later in the evening — or so we heard.

100 Comments

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday December 09, 2008 07:13AM EST

They might be correct but I am cautiously bullish better a bit late but never missed the train when it goes......I agree with them 75 percent.....I always have reservation of 15 % and 10 % reserve but when I am sure I will go 100% bullish.........and spread all my cylinder............That's me.....

Gary
Gary - Tuesday December 09, 2008 07:37AM EST

You must be kidding !! Workfoces being laid off in their thousands , home forclosures at record levels as we speak, major companies filing for bankruptcy as we speak (with many more to come), huge factories shutting down , real estate property prices still falling and a heap of other stuff too much to mention here !! Where do you get bull market? I gotta hand it to the American people , you sure are patriotic , just keep throwing your hard earned dollars at this market and watch what happens !!

Toeser
Toeser - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:08AM EST

My indicators show a strong chance of further gains. To Gary above: when you have been in the market 40 years, you learn there are often massive disconnects between the market and the economy. In the long run, the economy wins - but the stock market can run counter to the economy (in either direction) for months at a time. I will ride this pony until it dies and then take a new direction.

d
d - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:12AM EST

Gary- Didn't you hear, it's all better now! It's all fixed because the messiah is going to waste lots of money on pork barrel 'stimulus'. And we the taxpayer get to foot the bill, oh joy!

d
d - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:12AM EST

Gary- Didn't you hear, it's all better now! It's all fixed because the messiah is going to waste lots of money on pork barrel 'stimulus'. And we the taxpayer get to foot the bill, oh joy!

medimagingjobs
medimagingjobs - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:13AM EST

I agree with Gary.... and as Obama said..... "Things are going to get MUCH worse before they get better" The question is as you continue to add the deterioration to the economy in so many multiple factors that we are facing, and the head of steam it is only logical to see will dramatically escalate.... as they are intertwined,,, could it have been more accurately stated... "Things are going to get MUCH worse, and although we''ll do all in our power to remedy this economical crisis, the fact is folks things are not going to get better". Optimism is a good thing but reality has to be taken into account. We're screwed,,,,,,,

Elmer
Elmer - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:17AM EST

I am buying for the long term. Stocks are historicaly cheap. However the next few years could be rough with who we elected as president.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:17AM EST

The stock market is a joke, and most people dealing in it (except of course the big insiders) are idiots.

Scott
Scott - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:18AM EST

Bull markets always start when the news is at its worst and stocks are heavily discounted.

william
william - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:22AM EST

Go ahead suckers but the truth is no fundemental changes have occured from two weeks ago, this is a fool srally to wash out the suckers MMW

william
william - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:24AM EST

Yea and these two guys helped bankrupt Merrill and Lehman !!! HAha

Reedersong
Reedersong - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:27AM EST

The Market is still a China Shop.

william
william - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:27AM EST

Through out history we have not been called socialist when we tax the super wealthy high rates, now we have this huge opposition to tax the wealthy a progressively fair amount. It should be discouraged to rape Americans. Don't fall for any "fair Tax" 10% for some is all of their disposable income, 10% for the ultra wealthy is a joke, and consumption taxes are stupid, the rich do not consume that much more and will walk away Scott Free as they have been doing since the early eighties.

Davewx
Davewx - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:36AM EST

When I hear comments likes Gary's, I know we are at bottom and it's time to buy and hold. Toeser is right. In a recession, the stock market is the first indicator to go down and the first to come back. It's been going south for over a year and the bear is almost dead. The damage to the economy (layoffs, bankruptcies, etc.) always comes at the tail end and often after the market has stated it's come back. That's the history of recessions. It happens every time and every time we heard the inevitable cries, "It's the worst economy since the Great Depression." We heard that in 2001, heard it in 1992, and heard it in 1980. That has always been a buy signal and the smart people are hearing it now.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:39AM EST

This is a bear market rally and nothing more! Don't be fooled again.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:39AM EST

Hey financeupdate - I suspect we won't see 2 recessions during Obama's tenure as president. Only one clown has that notable distinction. And speaking of waste, what's the current tab on this Iraq fiasco? So glad we "borrowed & spent" our way into a multi-generational hole for WMD intelligence that was wrong from the beginning. Bang your bible on that.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:44AM EST

This bull market rally is the perfect time to short the DOW. Just bought some SIJ and plan on adding every time it drops $10. As everyone says, it's going to get much worse before it gets better. I might be able to squeeze about 30 or 40% gains; maybe more, in the next four months. And when the bottom falls out again, I'll be there to pick up some accidentally high dividends for my IRA.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:45AM EST

The news media will start with a ton of negative news to deflate any potential upswing. I believe in Santa Claus.

Andrey Z
Andrey Z - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:47AM EST

Ahh, gotta love the "experts" 20/20 hindsight.

David C
David C - Tuesday December 09, 2008 08:49AM EST

The rich don`t consume much more,you`ve got to be joking.

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