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How the 'Experts' Missed the Crash: Philosophical Flaws, No Sense of History

Posted Dec 10, 2008 03:16pm EST by Aaron Task

The fact most economists, policymakers and Wall Street strategists didn't see the current crisis coming is undeniable. But why? Why did the "experts" drop the ball so badly?

One expert who did predict the crisis, James Galbraith, economics professor at the University of Texas at Austin, says the majority of his peers were blinded by a belief in free-market philosophy and the notion markets are rational.

Alan Greenspan recently admitted to a "flaw" in this philosophy, of which he was the most noted practitioner: "I made a mistake in presuming that the self-interest of organizations, specifically banks and others, was such as that they were capable of protecting their own shareholders," the former Fed chairman said.

A self-described "financial ambulance chaser," Galbraith, the son of famed economist and market historian John Kenneth Galbraith, said two major developments in the mid-2000s tipped him off that something was amiss:

  • The huge expansion in household debt as many Americans funded consumption by borrowing, especially via home equity loans.
  • The "abandonment" of regulatory oversight at the Federal level, which insured the "most aggressive, most abusive" players in the mortgage market would flourish.

Unfortunately, Galbraith doesn't hold much hope that this crisis will change much the outlook for economists, noting they don't study history and many are "still in denial" about what's transpired.

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211 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:30PM EST

Let me put it straight: most economists, policymakers and Wall Street strategists are just not smart enough, that's it! Only idiot or a person without any common sense didn't see anything suspicious in the fact that marginals with bottom low incomes "bought" mansions en mass, drove luxury cars and had bottomless credit lines. But Wall St. CEOs are not stupid. Most of them clearly saw what was going on, but they just didn't give a rat's ass about consequences. They are paid according to quarter's results, and they made enormous amount of money during the "boom". So, they don't care if their banks are broken at the end of the day.

Richardoneson
Richardoneson - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:33PM EST

How is it that those closest to the Sun are the ones that can't see the light of day?

taopraxis
taopraxis - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:35PM EST

Crooks never predict their own downfall.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:36PM EST

It is because humans cannot predict the future. Experts make money by being experts. They don't make money by correctly predicting the future. If they knew how to predict the future, they would have made a fortune.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:38PM EST

i still think that they should put the brokers and ceos in jail with a very friendly cell mate.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:38PM EST

Really? Where and when were these predictions published? Please give us links to dated video clips of these predictions. Peter Schiff predicted these economic events six years ago. He has many such interviews recorded on his website. He was publicly attacked by many economists for his dire predictions, most of which have started to come true, and some of which I hope never come true. Some of those economists have apologized to him. Why is no one apologizing to Galbraith? What proof does he have of his predictions? What exactly did he say would happen, and what would be the final result? I don't see much depth to anything he is saying in these interviews. It all looks like Keynesian apologetics at this point.

Tiffany
Tiffany - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:39PM EST

I was right to pull out in time

Steve
Steve - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:41PM EST

The "experts" knew all along what was coming down. But, they let their greed get in the way, trying to suck up every last penny before all hell broke loose. I say to them, get a job.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:45PM EST

If you rearrange the letters in the word Denial you can spell Nailed. something to think about.. ha ha

Rubes
Rubes - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:46PM EST

This Galbriath dude has a Commie father. Both of them predict the doom of capitalism for their entire careers. Once in a while they'll be right for a year or so. Pathetic really!

Mike C.W
Mike C.W - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:47PM EST

It could be even simpler. Most economists, policymakers and Wall Street strategists didn't see the crash coming because they made too darn much money. They could afford houses, so they didn't notice the disconnect between what people earned, and what houses cost, a disconnect that was obvious to all reasonable, non-wealthy people.

william
william - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:47PM EST

Pretty simple really, people were spending future returns, leveraged to the hilt, no collateral, no job, no possible way to keep tearing out trees and selling houses etc. Uncle lost all his revenue by giving corporate thieves the right to earn anything with no taxes while bleeding the middle class. Today's new rich think they pay their fair share only because they were never alive or rich when Uncle required wealthy to pay their fair share.

Wendell S
Wendell S - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:47PM EST

I new it and I barely got out of high school. They new it too. Americans are all being played by the elite and very very wealthy. The rich are getting richer off of our 401 k's and our tax dollars. Anybody could see this coming.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:48PM EST

"If the world should blow itself up, the last audible voice would be that of an expert saying it can't be done." Peter Ustinov (1921 - 2004)

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:49PM EST

Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight things was ever made......Kant

- Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:49PM EST

tandj7081 - ditto. No regrets. Starting moving to cash in 4q07 and was 90% out by April 2008. Too bad I left a little in, oh well. Cash is King. Will be for another 3 - 5 years too.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:49PM EST

POVERTY DON'T STOP FOOLS, GREED ENCOURAGES STUPIDITY....WHO WAS WATCHING THE CROOKS.

cowboy47201
cowboy47201 - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:49PM EST

I would add that it is such a systemic problem in two ways. One is the short term massive rewards we give each other. By that I mean, the companies pay big bonuses and we reward them by buying the stock based on short term numbers and managers down in the bowels are pushed to "hit the numbers" on a very short term basis. The other side goes to other poster who said "they are not smart enough". I would say rather that they are not systemic enough.. They have been taught to look out for number one and no one has the overall system in mind. That is what the government is supposed to do and did not. here we are. You can not ask a banker to take care of the banking system, they will play generally within the rules, but look to push for advantage. That is how they honestly believe the game is to be played. It is every person for themself and that is a great way to kill a system. We have made the bed.......

Robert B
Robert B - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:50PM EST

Let em eat cake!

Wendell S
Wendell S - Wednesday December 10, 2008 03:50PM EST

One stop is right. they all new it. Americans are being played and stolen from with the buy outs. It is criminal what the government and big business is doing.

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