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MSFT-YHOO Deal Collapses: The Pundits Prepare for Monday

Posted May 04, 2008 06:57pm EDT by John Paczkowski in Investing, Internet, Media, Venture Capital, M and A, IPOs

Now that Microsoft (MSFT) has abandoned its bid for Yahoo (YHOO), the tech media is sifting the entrails of the companies’ ill-starred merger talks for portents of things to come.

Paul Kedrosky at Infectious Greed says Yahoo has bought itself some more time–and litigation

I think what has largely happened here is we have bought time and lawsuits. If I was a Yahoo shareholder I’d be seriously pissed. Microsoft pulled us out of our recent share price slump, but management was too cutesy and territorial to take the money and run. My guess is that Yahoo’s share price falls quickly on Monday, and then finds support in the low-$20, a price reflecting a belief that this is not yet over. Only then, once some key shareholders pipe up and once Yahoo has to defend itself against the inevitable lawsuits, will we know how likely it is that its brazen move sticks.

Mini-Microsoft says Microsoft’s decision to walk restores his faith in the company:

Out of this had best come a new reorganization of our online properties. Out with the old already. We had reached a bet-the-company point in going after Yahoo to make up for the lack of performance out of MSN/Search/AdCenter in an attempt to leapfrog forward. I think we need to hang up on the good-enough consensus culture for a while and put in a strategy czar to get things done vs. expecting something to arise out of the dysfunctional ecosystem we currently have.

Over at ZDNet Larry Dignan opines that there are better ways for Microsoft to spend its $44.6 billion:

Windows needs work. Vista has image problems. The operating system is under attack from multiple fronts and needs to become more lightweight and modular. Windows is what made Microsoft and there are serious questions about its future. The biggest knock on this entire Microhoo saga: It was a distraction that could take focus away from the real cash cow. If you think the negotiations were a distraction, just imagine how dealing with regulators and integrating Yahoo would have diverted attention. Despite all the Microhoo chatter, Windows 7 (all resources) may be the thing that determines whether Microsoft stays relevant or not.

And the Seattle Times’ Brier Dudley agrees:

Thank goodness the tide finally turned and Ballmer came to his senses. Imagine what Microsoft could do just with that “extra” $5 billion. Ballmer could buy most of the Web start-ups in Seattle and Silicon Valley, plus a few biotechs and energy ventures for good measure. Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang will now go down in history as the obstinate founder who blew a chance to milk the world’s richest software company at the peak of its midlife angst.

Meanwhile, Mathew Ingram says Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang’s days are numbered:

In my view, Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang has gone way beyond fiduciary duty and has been effectively blocking this deal in any way possible. I expect to see the stock tank, and deservedly so. If I were a shareholder, I would be calling for Yang’s head. This deal was by far the best opportunity the company had to achieve some value.

And over at Valleywag, Owen Thomas says Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s days may be numbered as well:

Emails are flying out of Redmond with this speculation:Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s botched $50 billion bid for Yahoo couldmean the end of his career. While Microsoft’s board reportedly gave theCEO considerable leeway in handling the deal, his dithering approachand his failure to sell the deal both to Yahoo’s board and Microsoft’sown executives don’t reflect well on the sweaty screamer. The onlyproblem: Microsoft has no obvious successor for Ballmer.

At paidContent, Rafat Ali suggests some other business partners with which Microsoft might ally:

One would have to believe that Facebook will be back inplay. Microsoft is already the advertising provider for the social-networking service, and also owns a small part in it. This wouldgive it a strong toehold in the social-media space and help itexperiment more with new advertising models, among other things.

Then, to block and isolate Yahoo further, AOL’s buyout would be apossibility. Time Warner (TWX) is certainly interested in spinning itout, and is still speaking to Yahoo on a combination. Google (GOOG) isa 5% shareholder of AOL, so things might have to work around that.Certainly, if Diller really wants to get rid of IAC’s (IACI) disparatecompanies in this spinoff, then Microsoft could be a ready buyer.

The other smaller possibility includes CNET (CNET), though it’s hard to see synergies between the two companies.Further down the money chain would be tons of other companies likeTwitter, Digg, Meebo and any other $50 million to $500 million company.

CNET’s Stephan Shankland wonders if an ad deal with Google is really a viable option for Yahoo:

But relying on Google for ads, even in a limited way, isin effect admitting defeat in a key part of Yahoo’s business. Even ifit gets more money from the higher revenue per click generated byGoogle’s ad technology, relying on its biggest adversary raises thepossibility that a central part of the company’s business could behollowed out.

BoomTown’s Kara Swisher agrees:

While Yahoo might not have wanted to be acquired byMicrosoft, its alternative to goose its revenues by relying on Googlein an outsourced online search-ad deal is one it might regret even moreif struck.

At CenterNetworks, Alan Stern suggests Yahoo shack up with AOL:

I’ve said for years now (many years before CN) thatYahoo and AOL needed to merge. It would have been a mega-merger yearsago but would still be huge even today. I touched on it a year ago onCN. Both AOL and Yahoo are consumer-facing Internet companies.Microsoft is not and to try to just plug Yahoo would be very difficult.While there is a good bit of overlap with AOL and Yahoo, the ability tomaximize the mainstream is the key. AOL is looking to launch a largenumber of content sites this year, they have Platform-A for advertisingand the number one IM client out there. Don’t forget Bebo as well.Yahoo brings some semi-powerful social apps and a huge content networkalong with some leading Web apps.

While Silicon Alley Insider’s Henry Blodget feels Yahoo should move ahead with its Google outsourcing deal:

It allows Yahoo to focus on businesses it can win, instead of throwing money at a war it has already lost.

And, finally, DealBook wonders if Microsoft is going to walk away from the biggest deal of its 33-year history:

It certainly appears that way at the moment. Which meansthere’s really only one thing for certain come Monday: Yahoo’s shareswill sink deep into the mud, and Yang and Co. will be hard pressed toplacate investors. Seems that in the end, the only so-called “sacred cow” Yahoo CEO Jerry Yang will slaughter is his company’s share price...

39 Comments

RichardA
RichardA - Sunday May 04, 2008 07:21PM EDT

fortunately i profited from the psft/oracle deal twice, perhaps it may happen with yhoo/msft, if i were a betting man, and i am, i say yes...the fat lady hasn't sung yet

tupac
tupac - Sunday May 04, 2008 07:30PM EDT

who cares what pundits say. you guys ALL got it wrong.

Rich
Rich - Sunday May 04, 2008 07:31PM EDT

Yahoo managements turning down of a very reasonable offer from Microsoft is just what you should have expected when you put the companies founder back in the top position on your board of directors. He has forced a decision based solely on his feelings as founder of the company and ignored the best interests of his shareholders , employees and the faithful users of all of Yahoo’s wonderful services. Microsoft’s offer was more than generous given the historical performance of Yahoo. I have been a shareholder on and off since Yahoo’s inception. I purchased shares on the first day of the IPO because of my belief in the company and the quality of it’s services. The recent decision by Yahoo will have several effects. The share price will soon be back in the high teens. Layoffs will begin to carve away the talent that made Yahoo the company that it was. Finally, Microsoft or some other bargain hunter will end up acquiring the rotted carcass of Yahoo for a price far lower than the original offer. Thanks much Mr. Yang. Well, at least you will still be a billionare.

Rich
Rich - Sunday May 04, 2008 07:31PM EDT

Yahoo managements turning down of a very reasonable offer from Microsoft is just what you should have expected when you put the companies founder back in the top position on your board of directors. He has forced a decision based solely on his feelings as founder of the company and ignored the best interests of his shareholders , employees and the faithful users of all of Yahoo’s wonderful services. Microsoft’s offer was more than generous given the historical performance of Yahoo. I have been a shareholder on and off since Yahoo’s inception. I purchased shares on the first day of the IPO because of my belief in the company and the quality of it’s services. The recent decision by Yahoo will have several effects. The share price will soon be back in the high teens. Layoffs will begin to carve away the talent that made Yahoo the company that it was. Finally, Microsoft or some other bargain hunter will end up acquiring the rotted carcass of Yahoo for a price far lower than the original offer. Thanks much Mr. Yang. Well, at least you will still be a billionare.

Paul
Paul - Sunday May 04, 2008 07:32PM EDT

Nice play by the arbitrageurs. As a group buy a large stake. Demand a price you know MSFT won't meet in order to collapse the stock price. Increase stake for a minimal amount and gain control of the majority of the stock(all owning less than 15%). Go to MSFT and let them know that 33-35 would be just fine. Go to the Yahoo board and let them know you will field your own slate of directors that support a merger with MSFT if they don't agree to the lower price. All in a days work.

Paul
Paul - Sunday May 04, 2008 07:33PM EDT

Nice play by the arbitrageurs. As a group buy a large stake. Demand a price you know MSFT won't meet in order to collapse the stock price. Increase stake for a minimal amount and gain control of the majority of the stock(all owning less than 15%). Go to MSFT and let them know that 33-35 would be just fine. Go to the Yahoo board and let them know you will field your own slate of directors that support a merger with MSFT if they don't agree to the lower price. All in a days work.

valon
valon - Sunday May 04, 2008 07:43PM EDT

jerry get fired fr this stunt!!! if jerry is so confident about yahoo's future then he shuld buy my stocks at just $33 a share i'll sell them to this idiot!!!

Barb
Barb - Sunday May 04, 2008 07:48PM EDT

Where's the line of shareholders waiting to sue Jerry. I want to get in quickly.

Huaming
Huaming - Sunday May 04, 2008 07:50PM EDT

Shareholders should vote against all yahoo board of directors on next shareholder's meeting. force Jerry Yang out.

vincent
vincent - Sunday May 04, 2008 08:10PM EDT

I thank , Yahoo have show that they are capable, for my point view , yahoo is now moving to trade up because they have give confidence to the share holders. watch out this week.

gail
gail - Sunday May 04, 2008 08:27PM EDT

Yang is selfish and foolish. He has violated his fiduciary duty to me and all the other Yahoo shareholders. He should be fired, sued and humiliated. His conduct should be a case study in hubris at all the big B schools. His board should be sued and replaced. I hope their personal assets are at risk, and the company decision to indemnifiy them is in itself a breach of fiduciary duty to the shareholders as it allowed them to ignore market realities and reject a very generous offer. I expect the stock will fall to $20 and will never see $30 again.

PhilipL
PhilipL - Sunday May 04, 2008 08:37PM EDT

It's surprising (?) that Ballmer dropped his bid. Microsoft will certainly survive ... a decent portal and search engine would have been a plus. It's hard to believe Microsoft cannot attract wizards to trump Yahoo and compete with Google. Why cannot Microsoft bribe the geniuses of Google to join their empire. For us peon internet users, Google isn't really all that astounding. A lot of hype, BS, marketing and a decent search engine. This cannot be duplicated for $40B? Hard to believe. Somebody's incompetent.

Tim
Tim - Sunday May 04, 2008 09:03PM EDT

I'm up for a class action.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Sunday May 04, 2008 09:08PM EDT

@ phill7450 - "Google isn't really all that astounding. A lot of hype, BS, marketing and a decent search engine. This cannot be duplicated for $40B? Hard to believe. Somebody's incompetent." ... Who could be that incompetent? MSFT? Ballmer? Both? Fact: they have not been able to do it, no matter how hard they have tried over and over. Aren't you scared as a MSFT shareholder? Maybe Jerry was right.

Bob
Bob - Sunday May 04, 2008 09:27PM EDT

Microsoft can take or leave the Yahoo deal. It's all money. Yahoo has had troubles right along. Just wait a while and see what happens. Yahoo stockholders might change their minds. I think Microsoft would be better off developing smaller companies. That would use some of its underdeveloped talent. Microsoft should spend its money on fixing itself and not on glamour aquisition.

gregbo
gregbo - Sunday May 04, 2008 09:35PM EDT

M$ has lots of competent people; enough to develop a search engine that is capable of challenging G. In fact, some studies show that M$ is better for some types of searches, and practically as good for everything else. However, that in and of itself doesn't matter. What these companies have missed is that G cannot be beaten merely by creating a "better" search engine. They need to create some desire in the current (and future) users to use something of their creation. They need to make it such that G is no longer desirable. No one has yet to do this. In the meantime, G doesn't have to be "better" - just good enough to retain their current userbase and attractive enough to gain new users. My general feeling is that M$ should refocus its efforts on XP, Vista, virtualization, wireless computing, cloud computing, and its other ventures that are either successful, or have the potential to be. To continue to engage in this dysfunction of trying to catch G puts their other successes at risk, in particular to a company like G that can make it attractive to use their offerings. As far as Y! is concerned, the same is true - outsource the search and use the freed up resources for things that it can and does excel at, such as developing fun, creative, and useful web applications. Things like social networking are historically a better technological and business avenue for Y!

death-by-moi
death-by-moi - Sunday May 04, 2008 09:48PM EDT

HIDE AND WATCH !

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Sunday May 04, 2008 10:03PM EDT

Very glad that deal is over, MS doesn't need Yahoo with all their technology, why not create a service we can all use.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Sunday May 04, 2008 10:23PM EDT

Search engine business has tremendou growth potential. I think Google may have played a role behind the curtain. Yhoo share would be around $40/- soon.

N
N - Sunday May 04, 2008 10:23PM EDT

As a founder, Yang should have done like Gates and...let managers make deals...leave your feelings for philantropy. YHOO and MSFT combo could have been a winner...but it is never too late!

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