Friday, November 27, 2009, 1:40PM ET - U.S. Markets closed early today.
Hoping for a quick return to the consumer spending habits of past quarter-century, when "financial discipline" meant remembering to withdraw enough home equity to get a new SUV every two years? Forget about it, says Gary Shilling.
We are indeed going to return to the past, but it's going to be the enforced frugality of the 1930s and 1940s, not the debt-fueled orgy of the past couple of decades.
As the charts below show, in the last 25 years our total consumer debt load has ballooned from about 50% of GDP to almost 100%:

We've also raided our home-equity piggy banks, pulling out an increasing amount each year until house prices collapsed. At the same time, our savings rate has dropped from more than 10% of disposable income to zero:

Over the next several years, Shilling says, these trends will continue to reverse, placing enormous pressure on consumer spending. Unable to borrow anymore and seeking to replenish our demolished retirement accounts, we'll have no choice but to go on a "saving spree."
And this is not good news for the thousands of companies — domestic and international — that got fat and happy over the past two decades selling us things.
love, it greed has made us all suffer the inevitalbe pitfalls of capatalism.....
Welcome to THE GREAT RECESSION - anyone who thinks this is going to be a "V-Shaped" recovery is going to be dissapointed. Shilling is right on - the wealthy of the next generation will be those who can save/invest today. Saving/Investing is KING! My hope is that the cost of houses and cars will come down to a reasonable rate... if they do, I will be a consumer... I can't even imagine buying a new car and seeing it worth 50% less in 2 years... I like the new trend!
Dow was around 1000 in 1982 before the 401ks started... are the 401ks a ponzi scheme?
We are in THE GREAT RECESSION - smart people are working hard, saving/investing what we can and deleveraging. Shilling is right, we're having to retrain ourselves from a generation of living off credit, borrowing from our homes and our future retirements. I've seen my folks do it - and REFUSE to do it. I use some credit - but not to the extent my parents did - no reason to live under that kind of stress. It's my hope that in 20 years i'll have a retirement that doesn't include working full time.... but to make that real I have to use todays dollars to invest. I've seen the error of my folks ways.
SAVING IS VERY COOL... Investing is even cooler!
The greedy sob's will need to pay some freakin interest on the savings! Most banks have been taking the money and giving very little in return. They need to start giving silver dollars and toaster again to get those deposits. The gov't needs to reward saving and stop rewarding debt through the tax code. Lot's of changes are 'a' coming.
It will not happen ,,,,we will end in prosperity.......
that's right.. where do you put your savings? not in the bank, but in investments for the next new new thing...long live the market, you unfaithful beast
...and what about retires past 70 with only Medicare, retirement benefits and savings accounts? Will they, too, live hand to mouth?
Wait a second. Do you mean that if I have no savings, go into debt over my head and borrow against my only asset, I eventually will be negatively affected? Is that one of those new economic theories because I have never read that in the media or heard it from the government or the Federal Reserve. I was told that I should do my American duty and spend as much as I can borrow and then spend. Wow! I have to sit down and ready ponder this? This is revolutionary.
I have been scrimping and saving all my life. Now I can buy stuff with cash. Funny thing is that I don't really need all that stuff.
Was the "Roth IRA" a ponzi scheme as well. The market nose dived right after everyone switched there IRA's to Roth
this is the result of US consumers insane spending spree ... a good old cold shower will bring you back to reality now ...
So what is new? I have been saving and losing because i have saved. Never rich but the lose from inflation from saving really hurt. Inflation punishes savers. .
I have been eating with a single fork and single dish for the past 10 years. I have been spending too little and not enjoying life enough. I'm going to start increasing my spending. I plan to spend $20K more next quarter than I did this quarter. Enjoy life.
This is a very truncated view of how these things actually play out. First, savings do not include assets like stocks or bonds. And we now see there isa good reson for that, but it does not mean that people have absolutely nothing to show for the last 20 years. It depends on what you bought with the money which otherwise would have been saved. The DOW isn't going to 1000. And the level of discourse on these tech ticker threads is appalling. Death of capitalism, people will live hand to mouth for years, blah blah. People that said the same stuff in 1973-74, and god forbid if what you did is listen, and went and buried your money in the ground, because that was a disaster for anyone that did.
Invest in Pharma, Energy infrastructure and Green Technologies People need these things, they may not buy a new car, but they will pay their utility bills and have their medicine costs paid! The gov't infrastructure and green technologies initiatives coming in 09 will make more jobs available, hoping it will put a dent in the ones lost thusfar. Retail will be toast and financials are years away, the core needs fixing first. Hope you all have savings to fall back on...
Yahoo! Bring back Christmas Clubs and Layaway. Have a credit card shredding party! Maybe if we convert the Malls into Manufaturing buildings and start producing more and speding less, we will see REAL, not borrowed, prosperity once again. There is more to life than having more toys than your neighbor.
When the Wall Street people or the government tell you something, doing the opposite often better! Remembered when they told you to spend and spend some more... that included the stimulus checks. Your 401K and saving now worth nothing on their recommendation!!
Quotes and other information supplied by independent providers identified on the Yahoo! Finance partner page. Quotes are updated automatically, but will be turned off after 25 minutes of inactivity. Quotes are delayed at least 15 minutes for NASDAQ, NYSE and Amex. See also delay times for other exchanges. Real-Time continuous streaming quotes are available through our premium service. You may turn streaming quotes on or off. Fundamental company data provided by Capital IQ. Financials data provided by Edgar Online. Historical chart data and daily updates provided by Commodity Systems, Inc. (CSI). International historical chart data, daily updates, fund summary, fund performance, dividend data and Morningstar Index data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Analyst estimates data provided by Thomson Financial Network. All data provided by Thomson Financial Network is based solely upon research information provided by third party analysts. Yahoo! has not reviewed, and in no way endorses the validity of such data. Yahoo! and ThomsonFN shall not be liable for any actions taken in reliance thereon. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Neither Yahoo! nor any of independent providers is liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing the Yahoo! site, you agree not to redistribute the information found therein.
Paul L - Friday December 19, 2008 04:00PM EST
Making 2+ percent on Saving accounts won't motivate any to save either! There is not going to be a saving spree coming your way for many many long years. People will continue to spend every little penny saving they got... Living hands to mouth for many long years!!