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Get Ready to Scrimp and Save, Says Economist Shilling

Posted Dec 19, 2008 03:52pm EST by Henry Blodget

Hoping for a quick return to the consumer spending habits of past quarter-century, when "financial discipline" meant remembering to withdraw enough home equity to get a new SUV every two years? Forget about it, says Gary Shilling.

We are indeed going to return to the past, but it's going to be the enforced frugality of the 1930s and 1940s, not the debt-fueled orgy of the past couple of decades.

As the charts below show, in the last 25 years our total consumer debt load has ballooned from about 50% of GDP to almost 100%:

We've also raided our home-equity piggy banks, pulling out an increasing amount each year until house prices collapsed. At the same time, our savings rate has dropped from more than 10% of disposable income to zero:

Over the next several years, Shilling says, these trends will continue to reverse, placing enormous pressure on consumer spending. Unable to borrow anymore and seeking to replenish our demolished retirement accounts, we'll have no choice but to go on a "saving spree."

And this is not good news for the thousands of companies — domestic and international — that got fat and happy over the past two decades selling us things.

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222 Comments

Paul L
Paul L - Friday December 19, 2008 04:00PM EST

Making 2+ percent on Saving accounts won't motivate any to save either! There is not going to be a saving spree coming your way for many many long years. People will continue to spend every little penny saving they got... Living hands to mouth for many long years!!

mike
mike - Friday December 19, 2008 04:04PM EST

love, it greed has made us all suffer the inevitalbe pitfalls of capatalism.....

Mike
Mike - Friday December 19, 2008 04:06PM EST

Welcome to THE GREAT RECESSION - anyone who thinks this is going to be a "V-Shaped" recovery is going to be dissapointed. Shilling is right on - the wealthy of the next generation will be those who can save/invest today. Saving/Investing is KING! My hope is that the cost of houses and cars will come down to a reasonable rate... if they do, I will be a consumer... I can't even imagine buying a new car and seeing it worth 50% less in 2 years... I like the new trend!

Pat G
Pat G - Friday December 19, 2008 04:09PM EST

Dow was around 1000 in 1982 before the 401ks started... are the 401ks a ponzi scheme?

Mike
Mike - Friday December 19, 2008 04:13PM EST

We are in THE GREAT RECESSION - smart people are working hard, saving/investing what we can and deleveraging. Shilling is right, we're having to retrain ourselves from a generation of living off credit, borrowing from our homes and our future retirements. I've seen my folks do it - and REFUSE to do it. I use some credit - but not to the extent my parents did - no reason to live under that kind of stress. It's my hope that in 20 years i'll have a retirement that doesn't include working full time.... but to make that real I have to use todays dollars to invest. I've seen the error of my folks ways.

Mike
Mike - Friday December 19, 2008 04:13PM EST

SAVING IS VERY COOL... Investing is even cooler!

maicaray
maicaray - Friday December 19, 2008 04:16PM EST

The greedy sob's will need to pay some freakin interest on the savings! Most banks have been taking the money and giving very little in return. They need to start giving silver dollars and toaster again to get those deposits. The gov't needs to reward saving and stop rewarding debt through the tax code. Lot's of changes are 'a' coming.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Friday December 19, 2008 04:17PM EST

It will not happen ,,,,we will end in prosperity.......

Ra
Ra - Friday December 19, 2008 04:17PM EST

that's right.. where do you put your savings? not in the bank, but in investments for the next new new thing...long live the market, you unfaithful beast

Ada Lee
Ada Lee - Friday December 19, 2008 04:17PM EST

...and what about retires past 70 with only Medicare, retirement benefits and savings accounts? Will they, too, live hand to mouth?

Lorraine
Lorraine - Friday December 19, 2008 04:18PM EST

Wait a second. Do you mean that if I have no savings, go into debt over my head and borrow against my only asset, I eventually will be negatively affected? Is that one of those new economic theories because I have never read that in the media or heard it from the government or the Federal Reserve. I was told that I should do my American duty and spend as much as I can borrow and then spend. Wow! I have to sit down and ready ponder this? This is revolutionary.

kep
kep - Friday December 19, 2008 04:18PM EST

I have been scrimping and saving all my life. Now I can buy stuff with cash. Funny thing is that I don't really need all that stuff.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 04:18PM EST

Was the "Roth IRA" a ponzi scheme as well. The market nose dived right after everyone switched there IRA's to Roth

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 04:22PM EST

this is the result of US consumers insane spending spree ... a good old cold shower will bring you back to reality now ...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday December 19, 2008 04:22PM EST

So what is new? I have been saving and losing because i have saved. Never rich but the lose from inflation from saving really hurt. Inflation punishes savers. .

Andy
Andy - Friday December 19, 2008 04:23PM EST

I have been eating with a single fork and single dish for the past 10 years. I have been spending too little and not enjoying life enough. I'm going to start increasing my spending. I plan to spend $20K more next quarter than I did this quarter. Enjoy life.

wobatus
wobatus - Friday December 19, 2008 04:23PM EST

This is a very truncated view of how these things actually play out. First, savings do not include assets like stocks or bonds. And we now see there isa good reson for that, but it does not mean that people have absolutely nothing to show for the last 20 years. It depends on what you bought with the money which otherwise would have been saved. The DOW isn't going to 1000. And the level of discourse on these tech ticker threads is appalling. Death of capitalism, people will live hand to mouth for years, blah blah. People that said the same stuff in 1973-74, and god forbid if what you did is listen, and went and buried your money in the ground, because that was a disaster for anyone that did.

synergykjs
synergykjs - Friday December 19, 2008 04:23PM EST

Invest in Pharma, Energy infrastructure and Green Technologies People need these things, they may not buy a new car, but they will pay their utility bills and have their medicine costs paid! The gov't infrastructure and green technologies initiatives coming in 09 will make more jobs available, hoping it will put a dent in the ones lost thusfar. Retail will be toast and financials are years away, the core needs fixing first. Hope you all have savings to fall back on...

AC
AC - Friday December 19, 2008 04:23PM EST

Yahoo! Bring back Christmas Clubs and Layaway. Have a credit card shredding party! Maybe if we convert the Malls into Manufaturing buildings and start producing more and speding less, we will see REAL, not borrowed, prosperity once again. There is more to life than having more toys than your neighbor.

Paul L
Paul L - Friday December 19, 2008 04:24PM EST

When the Wall Street people or the government tell you something, doing the opposite often better! Remembered when they told you to spend and spend some more... that included the stimulus checks. Your 401K and saving now worth nothing on their recommendation!!

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