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No Bottom for Financials: 'Re-regulation' Means Slower Profits Ahead

Posted May 05, 2008 04:31pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Banking

Yes, there were stories other than Microsoft-Yahoo moving the market on Monday. As is often the case these days, many of the most actively traded stocks were financials, with many suffering a setback from their recent rally attempt.

For example, Countrywide Financial tumbled 16% after analysts said Bank of America should either renegotiate or abandon its planned acquisition of the once mighty mortgage lender. Such speculation weighed on other mortgage lenders such as WaMu and IndyMac.

Also, Ambac tumbled after Warren Buffett said some rivals to his firm's new muni bond insurer don't deserve their triple-A ratings.

It's probably not a coincidence the broad market fell Monday since financials still have the biggest weighting in the S&P 500 among industry groups.

Like the broad market, the financials had become overbought during their rally from the March lows, says Jeff Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James.

Saut believes more bad news is likely to come out of the financial sector, even if traders can't help trying to catch a bottom in the group.

Short-term rallies may come and go, but Saut says the coming "re-regulation" of the financial industry is likely to crimp industry profits and P/E ratios for the foreseeable future. For example, Rep. Barney Frank on Monday threatened the mortgage industry with more stringent regulation if it doesn't voluntarily write-down the value of loans, knocking shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in the process.

For investors who want exposure, Saut recommends insurance stocks like Allstate and smaller community banks with limited exposure to subprime mortgages.

8 Comments

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ptyson35 - Monday May 05, 2008 08:48PM EDT

Spot on.

you
recession08 - Tuesday May 06, 2008 12:55AM EDT

The financials are going to get hammered

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday May 06, 2008 01:33AM EDT

Financials will be the test of market strength, they have been trading that way most days all year. If finacials are up in general, thats when we see an upswing. If market sentiment turns on financials, and they should, most arent worth more than $2-3 a share in actual value vs. company profitability in the coming months. When you make a profit, you can be worth more, just like in any stock price, you dont make money, you have a future that means you will make less money, and your stock should drop. $25 a share(C) for the largest debted bank in the world possibly, ya right. They are selling shares or selling assets weekly to keep solvent. Not a good sign when your selling safe 10 year notes. Those arent things banks usually sell, my friends. Especially high yield ones. Either they dont expect those to hold, or they are more desperate than they are mentioning.(Or its just a simple cash infusion. Banks get cash infusion when you deposit money and make loans(money created out of nothing). So they must not be making many loans and receiving customer deposits as they need them. Another bad sign.

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lewishj2003 - Tuesday May 06, 2008 10:45AM EDT

IT HARD TO FIGURE OUT. I AM SURE THEY WILL BE WORTH MORE THAN 2 OR 3 DOLLARS. ALTHOUGH THE REGS WILL HAMPER PROFITS IN ONE WAY THEY MAY ALSO HELP IN ANOTHER WAY BY STOPPING BANKS FROM ISSUING STUPID LOANS. BARNEY FRANKS IS WRONG TO THINK BANKS SHOULD EAT THE LOSS THAT THE CONSUMER INCURS WHEN HIS HOUSE DEPRECIATES. THE CONSUMER SHOULD CONTINUE TO PAY THE MORTGAGE AND MAY BE IN THE LONG WRONG THE HOUSE WILL GO BACK UP IN VALUE.

you
jvmkirk - Tuesday May 06, 2008 11:00AM EDT

"C" is an international banking system with many large overseas investors, they are still making big profits outside the US. Pick a spot and start getting back in, its near its bottom. They are paying you almost 5% while you wait for the price to go back up.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday May 06, 2008 11:59AM EDT

THE BEST IS YET TO COME... IT AIN'T OVER TILL ITS OVER...

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday May 06, 2008 01:32PM EDT

As the housing situation get worst, the financials will continue to get hit with large write downs. How long can all these $billions of fund raising last? They makes its sound so easy. What is the effects on the vaulue of their shares as they get diluted by all these funds? Its not as if the banks are getting all those $billions for free.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday May 07, 2008 11:35AM EDT

Just look at the website of any good-government organizations you will see the huge contributions the financials are making to political candidates at all levels and of all ideologies. After the November elections the victors will pay back the contributors--lobbyists if you prefer--with tax-payers' money. Unfortunately no one can figure out a better political system. The more you try to reform the more loopholes will be discovered.

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