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Obama's "Sick" Economy Facing $1.2 Trillion Deficit

Posted Jan 07, 2009 12:57pm EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession
Making official what Barack Obama forecast earlier, the Congressional Budget Office says the federal deficit will swell to $1.2 trillion in fiscal 2009.

"The economy is very sick," President-elect Obama said earlier this week. "We have to act and act now to break the momentum of this recession."

Obama, who continues to reach out to Congressional leaders and economic advisers - including Ronald Regan's economic guru and former NBER president Marty Feldstein, needs to walk a fine line.

After campaigning on a platform of hope, the President-elect risks being overly dour but wants to make sure the American people (and his political opponents) know that he is inheriting an economy mess. He is also trying hard to craft an economic stimulus package that is big enough to be effective, but also has bipartisan support. One reason he's expected to include a big tax cut in an estimated $775 billion plan is so Republicans can't point fingers (and score political points) if the economy fails to revive sooner vs. later.

To the victor go the spoils.

53 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday January 07, 2009 01:36PM EST

To: Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday January 07, 2009 01:24PM EST US won't default on debt. US can always print more $$$!!!!!

cootiegiver
cootiegiver - Wednesday January 07, 2009 01:37PM EST

I don't see how this translates into a $1.2 trillion deficit. Since the recession began in Dec., 2007, the GDP has increased by 3.2%. I'll grant you that it declined at a .5% annualized rate for the 3d quarter, and probably a larger amount for the 4th quarter, but it's still not a very deep contraction, even with that. All told, after considering that we're talking about annualized rates, I would say that in the last two quarters, the actual decline in GDP will be less than 1%. To me, it seems that the reason we're headed to a $1.2 trillion deficit is that the Congress and President plan to use this shallow recession as an excuse to vastly increase government spending. As we saw with Bush, a massive increase in government spending does not make a strong economy. You can't pay the mortgage or the gas bill with the benefit you get from a new road or a new bridge. The main effect of all this will be to increase the percentage of the nation's GDP which is consumed by the federal government.

Ryan
Ryan - Wednesday January 07, 2009 01:37PM EST

Can these guys be any more PRO-Obama. Come on guys, Why don't you man up and tell us your plan, and for once hold yourself accountable for what you say. Oh wait the Evil republicans are the ones to blame. First thing Obama is going to do economically is continue the Bush economic policys. CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN.

cootiegiver
cootiegiver - Wednesday January 07, 2009 01:38PM EST

I don't see how this translates into a $1.2 trillion deficit. Since the recession began in Dec., 2007, the GDP has increased by 3.2%. I'll grant you that it declined at a .5% annualized rate for the 3d quarter, and probably a larger amount for the 4th quarter, but it's still not a very deep contraction, even with that. All told, after considering that we're talking about annualized rates, I would say that in the last two quarters, the actual decline in GDP will be less than 1%. To me, it seems that the reason we're headed to a $1.2 trillion deficit is that the Congress and President plan to use this shallow recession as an excuse to vastly increase government spending. As we saw with Bush, a massive increase in government spending does not make a strong economy. You can't pay the mortgage or the gas bill with the benefit you get from a new road or a new bridge. The main effect of all this will be to increase the percentage of the nation's GDP which is consumed by the federal government.

asdf
asdf - Wednesday January 07, 2009 01:39PM EST

The economy is getting back to reality and the government will have to face up to cutting spending. For the past several decades society has been living on borrowed money spent for items of no or little utility.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday January 07, 2009 01:47PM EST

1:36 - I know you were being sarcastic, but for the people who don't know, printing more $$$ is the same as defaulting eventually.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday January 07, 2009 01:48PM EST

"Soup. Does anyone want soup? This could be our last supper!"

Arisian!
Arisian! - Wednesday January 07, 2009 01:48PM EST

Key term: Bipartisan support. AS IF! Both parties seem completely willing to burn the house down to keep the other side from looking effective- and we all live in that house. They jointly have one short, shining moment to prove me wrong, and I pray they do. We'll all know who should go to the wall within six months, win. lose or draw. For now, I'm willing to wait. If they try to throw this country out with the bathwater, we all better be ready to play catch....and all you party loyalists on both sides are part of the damned problem, because you egg your pet morons on when they should be working together.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday January 07, 2009 01:53PM EST

Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday January 07, 2009 01:36PM EST To: Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday January 07, 2009 01:24PM EST US won't default on debt. US can always print more $$$!!!!! The US doesn't print money. The Federal Reserve does... a privately owned bank. They will print money for the US and charge us interest. It is all a shell game. They are the ones in power.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday January 07, 2009 02:02PM EST

The 1.2T includes the TARP funds but does not include Obama's much talked about stimulus plan. The deficit could be over 2T and we'll won't see much difference. We'll have to pay it back - either with higher taxes and/or inflation. Borrowing from our great-grand children is not the solution.

Kevin
Kevin - Wednesday January 07, 2009 02:15PM EST

Printing more money is NOT the same as defaulting. One implies massive deflation, the other hyperinflation. Very different implications for day-to-day life, as well as investment strategies.

scottk
scottk - Wednesday January 07, 2009 02:19PM EST

Economic crisis brought to you by the alumni of the most prestigious universities and business schools in this country. Harvard, Yale, Wharton etc. has instructed the children of previous silver spooners' to rob the lower and middle class of their hard worked for tax dollars. Then like Madoff, imprison him in his 7 million dollar penthouse. I can probably find a couple hundred thousand American tax payers who would like to serve some time like that. When will America realize our enemies are the same ones our founding fathers fought against and then warned us to be watchful for. The elite of England oppressed the American taxpayer then, just as today's elite oppress our country's citizens today. They too had representation that did not honor the wishes of the majority. Every public official and/or veteran like myself swore and oath to defend the Constitution from all enemies foreign and domestic. Today we are in greater danger from domestic enemies than we have ever been from any foreign force, especially cave dwelling religious zealots living halfway around the world. A two party system in which both parties are under ownership of the wealthy is not a system of fairness or economic soundness.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday January 07, 2009 02:21PM EST

Since our Congress and President plan to toss out $hundred$ of $billion$ like confetti, how do they ever plan to pay down the deficit, or even worse, how to fund the $50+ Trillion of upcoming Medicare and Social Security payments to retiring Bay Boomers? Every year we taxpayers pay over $400 Billion just in interest on the National Debt -- and help pay for China's and Russia's expanding armed forces, due to the US Treasury bonds they hold. Item of interest: every American citizen is now the hook for over $180,000 of federal debt and liabilities, and it's only getting worse. Want to help put a stop to this, and reverse the bankruptcy of the US? Check the Peter G. Peterson Foundation at http://www.pgpf.org/ The more people that act, the sooner we can get on the road to national recovery. And probably reverse the Great Recession as well.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday January 07, 2009 02:33PM EST

Obama will SOON be sued by the American people for MAL-PRACTICE HE WILL FAIL MISERABLY.....sorry

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Wednesday January 07, 2009 02:34PM EST

I'm still........UNDERWATER HERE..........hello!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday January 07, 2009 02:54PM EST

The debt today does of course put inflation pressure and corresponding borrowing limits on the government tomorrow. But the question is do you borrow some today from tomorrow to stop downward momentum and smooth the dip. I vote yes and I am one that will actually pay for it in the future with taxes. The middle class will not have to pay any back via taxes (they are already net recievers despite being constantly told their taxes are to high). They will have to pay it back via higher interest rates in the future to keep inflation within moderate range though. This will turn once things stabalize. There is plenty of money on the sideline and the conparable to "last year" will be a lot easier this fall.

d c
d c - Wednesday January 07, 2009 02:57PM EST

you do all know the middle class has been getting poorer for the past 30 years right, people worked longer and harder for less job security, less benefits, less compensation? That's where "efficiency" comes out of. While all the gains from GDP growth and "efficiency" went entirely to the top financiers (money changers), and still they continue to brainwash the rabble into braying about "death taxes", trickle down, rich pay too much in taxes. Remember what the Bible says about money changers.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday January 07, 2009 03:01PM EST

A lot of the stimulus money will leak out of the US and end up supporting the global economies. The US taxpayer is going to subsidize China's economic recovery. There are too many leaks in the boat. We've got to get the money to stay here but it won't. Globalization is not such a great thing now for the US. The financial system is destroyed. The great Bush legacy, crime, poverty, crisis. You all asked for it when you voted, and you all got it. It will take untold years by Obama to untangle this mess that Bush created. So much for MBA's from Hahvud. Dopes on dope.

bruce
bruce - Wednesday January 07, 2009 03:14PM EST

What ever the outcome it shouldnt have happened in the first place. Poor management ,need for tighter regulations,greed ,con-men.. The world suffers but the average person who is still employed are enjoying good times--cheaper petrol,cars ,houses etc.Only worry is if the become employed.For the rest who tried to become Mr Big and gambled on money they didnt have ,or the institutions that lent money to people who couldnt afford repayments,then what do you expect.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday January 07, 2009 03:19PM EST

It's not Obama's economy yet. What is the president, Mr. Bush, doing to fix the mess? More golf?

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