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Harrison's 2009 Outlook: Japan's Rise and Return of 'Buy and Hold'
Posted Jan 08, 2009 11:26am EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Commodities, BankingOf course, it's not the news that matters as much as the market's reaction to the news and, so far at least, the damage is relatively minor.
But don't expect cool, calm and collected to characterize 2009 according to Todd Harrison, CEO of Minyanville.com.
"My sense for 2009 is that -- all else being equal -- we'll see wild movements and a wide range, perhaps with S&P 600 as a nadir and one (if not two) 20% bear market rallies filled with false hope and empty promises," he writes in an outlook piece for the New Year.
In the accompanying video, taped just as the Wal-Mart warning was hitting the wires, Harrison discusses his "10 Themes for 2009," including:
- A bullish view on energy vs. a bearish view on financials.
- Barack Obama's Jan. 20 inauguration being a key "inflection point" for the market.
- A "yen for Japan," specifically Japanese equities over U.S. stocks.
- The potential for "buy and hold" opportunities in deep value stocks.
42 Comments
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday January 08, 2009 11:48AM EST
"wild movements and wild range" in the markets. Sounds like fun.
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday January 08, 2009 11:49AM EST
Buy and Hold? Ha, they're just trolling for suckers to unload their garbage upon. Not all the pigmen have escaped and they need optimistic bagholders to help them finance their future scams.
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday January 08, 2009 11:52AM EST
Dig more oil and our energy supply will last more than 300 years.... Plus many infra-structure and stimulus..........Everything will gettimg fine.............Money can move the mountains.........Buy
auto 44 - Thursday January 08, 2009 11:54AM EST
I WISH I COULD BE SO SURE OF MYSELF AS PREVIOUS 2 COMMENTERS.
auto 44 - Thursday January 08, 2009 11:54AM EST
I WISH I COULD BE SO SURE OF MYSELF AS PREVIOUS 2 COMMENTERS.
Cat_in_a_bank - Thursday January 08, 2009 11:56AM EST
The market has no other way but up as long as bankruptcy do not flash fire alarm. But people are shutting their eyes on 2 trillions of emergency loans, and intense disappearing of consumers. It’s only a short brake. The next wave will bring up bankruptcy on surface and market will crash again because saving of something is better then loosing everything.
me - Thursday January 08, 2009 11:59AM EST
anti-moron is anything but. US uses 25% of worlds energy because we account for 25% of the worlds economic production. We are continuing to drive SUV's (largest category of autosales as usual encluding sept-dec) and will buy even more as Toyota and Honda ramp up there new SUV production (The hybrids are money losers - requiring tax breaks to move. They are more PR than anything else). Wind could someday generate as much as 3% of energy. problem is, the environmental havoc they cause will stop production of those ugly turbines.
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday January 08, 2009 12:00PM EST
Johnny Ike is right: Whiskey really DOES make you bullish! I’m beginning to see this market in a whole new light…Thanks, Johnny!
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday January 08, 2009 12:03PM EST
sound like a replay of last year.
STORMSTOCKER1 - Thursday January 08, 2009 12:05PM EST
MORE LIKE BONES IN ANZA GRAVEYARD......!!!! IF WALMART TANKS THAT MEANS WE ARE ALL HEADING LOWER.........THEY ARE THE BOTTOM OF THE BOTTOM INDICATOR FOR RETAIL.....SO THEY WOULD BE THE BIG INDICATOR AS TO WHERE THE PUBLIC IS SPENDING OR NOT SPENDING THEIR DOLLARS.......NEXT SEE WHAT THE DOLLAR STORES HAVE TO SAY........BETTING UP FIRST, THAN DOWN.
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday January 08, 2009 12:06PM EST
Every one I know is either making less money than 2 years ago and/or has lost 30% of their net worth. Where do you find the money to invest?
taopraxis - Thursday January 08, 2009 12:06PM EST
Stocks and bonds are a world-class sucker play.
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday January 08, 2009 12:07PM EST
Buy and HOLD your fingers crossed. Can you say "GAMBLE"? Let's get Johnny over to AA.
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday January 08, 2009 12:07PM EST
Recession without stimulus is no good at all..........Okay Bonanza...... More whisky this winter........I remember Diageo for my Coth Whisky Black Label.........Happy...happy.....cheer....for the coming Bonanza.......
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday January 08, 2009 12:13PM EST
This guy has credibility and he makes sense.
JB - Thursday January 08, 2009 12:15PM EST
Sounds good if I am on the right side with my trades.
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday January 08, 2009 12:25PM EST
IS THAT RECESSION IF WE BUY MORE FOR EVERY DOLLAR EVERYTHING IS SO CHEAP.......I AM HAPPY WITH IT.......GO OUT AND YOU WILL BUY EERYTHING ON CHEAP.....ALL ARE BARGAIN........HALF PRICE MATE...........GAS IS SO CHEAP NOW.........
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday January 08, 2009 12:26PM EST
MOST signs around us do not indicate a V shape recovery, and it would be very scary if a sudden, but "EMPTY" recovery did occur.
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Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday January 08, 2009 11:34AM EST
Do not be scared…is only temporary…will soon pass…. Have a shot of whiskey…relax…think only Happy Thoughts. Soon Stimulus take effect. 2009 Year of Stimulus and Recovery and Bull Market and New Prosperity…YEAR OF GIANT BULL RUN…LIKE SKYROCKET…SOON WILL COME BONE-ANZA…BONE-ANZA…BONE-ANZA!!! BUY…BUY…BUY…Happy Prosperity!