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'Seismic Readjustment' for Dollar Likely in 2009, Harrison Says

Posted Jan 08, 2009 12:32pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing

Part of the reason Todd Harrison, CEO of Minyanville.com, expects more wild swings and the potential for S&P 600 in 2009 is a view the drama of late 2008 did not resolve the credit crunch and its broader ramifications.

"Despite lower equities and massive government intervention, the equilibrium between equity, credit, commodities and currencies remains elusive," Harrison writes in his "10 Themes for 2009" piece.

Critically, the credit markets have thawed a bit but they're still a long way from being unfrozen, he says. This isn't a U.S. only issue, either: Germany has struggled with debt offerings this week while the Bank of England slashed rates today to their lowest level since the central bank's formation in 1694.

As a result, Harrison forecasts "seismic readjustments" this year in various asset classes, most notably the dollar. "You could walk in one day and see a currency market readjustment where the dollar could open significantly lower, thereby punishing those who did the right thing," he warns – although his long-term account remains 100% in cash.

 

140 Comments

ANTHONY
ANTHONY - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:05PM EST

WHAT DID YA XPECT.HUH..DECADES OF SPEND AND TAX,,,,,ALL GVT ENTITIES,FED.STATE,LOCAL,ALWAYS TAKING OUT OF THE COOKIE JAR...AND NOT PUTTING ANYTHING IN...A TAX STRUCTURE OF "A HOUSE OF CARDS"....ALL 6 DECKS... SOON WE WILL ALL LIVE IN "SMALL CAMPERS",, IN SOME OBSCURE PARK,,,, EXCEPT WELFARERS, CRIMINALS AND POLITICIANS...

ANTHONY
ANTHONY - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:06PM EST

WHAT DID YA XPECT.HUH..DECADES OF SPEND AND TAX,,,,,ALL GVT ENTITIES,FED.STATE,LOCAL,ALWAYS TAKING OUT OF THE COOKIE JAR...AND NOT PUTTING ANYTHING IN...A TAX STRUCTURE OF "A HOUSE OF CARDS"....ALL 6 DECKS... SOON WE WILL ALL LIVE IN "SMALL CAMPERS",, IN SOME OBSCURE PARK,,,, EXCEPT WELFARERS, CRIMINALS AND POLITICIANS...

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:09PM EST

POUNDS,EURO,YEN,PESO,AND ALL MAJOR CURRENCY IS DOWN AGAINST MIGHTY DOLLAR.........HOW DARE YOU TELLING US DOLLAR IS TOILET ROLL............IF YOU HAD MORE OF IT GIVE IT TO ME AN I WILL BUY YOU WHISKY.....CHEER........OR GO ON HOLIDAY ABROAD AND YOU WILL SEE HOW DOLLAR IS SO STRONG NOW COMPARE TO A YEAR AGO..........GIVE ME ALL YOUR DOLLAR AND I WILL GO ON HOLIDAY IN EUROPE.........CHEER........

NicolasT
NicolasT - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:09PM EST

could go both ways.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:11PM EST

It's good that Mrs. B got that China for the White House at a discount before the dollar fell.

Art
Art - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:11PM EST

Expiration of the Bush tax cuts, federal deficits and increased union power are weighing heavily on the economy. Do not expect Obama to help.

John P
John P - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:15PM EST

I'll bet mogley's IQ is less than 90.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:18PM EST

Currency value is not much about economic growth.. in the last 8 years the US has had a much higher growth than switzerland for instance but the USD value has been divided almost by 2 compared to swiss franc.. About gov debt, individual debt, trade deficit, gov budget deficit, money creation, ..., Euro looks much better than USD... But that's not so important for US resident as it might be for non US investor who should hedge their investment denominated in USD..

Matt
Matt - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:19PM EST

THE END-ER OF THIS ARGUMENT: Next year the Russians and Arabs are going to introduce a gold-backed currency and all fiat paper currencies will be relative toast: dollar, euro, pound, etc.

alan j
alan j - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:19PM EST

All the bailouts have stopped the rigged stock market from going down to where the TRUTH is. And the poor taxpayer is going to PAY for the govt bailing out rigged wall street, whining homowners, and more govt jobs, because the market was not allowed to CORRECT and in turn make rigged, corrupt, scammin, cheatin AMERICA REFORM. The FED RESERVE is noting more than wall streets PROTECTION AGENCY. The whole country and system is a LIE and a SCAM and a RIPOFF to the taxpayer. SOC. SEC. & medicare will be stolen next!

blank
blank - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:20PM EST

todd, i love you, but you have to explain things to normal people we arent all 20 year financial players i feel like i am in a graduate class and i am a junior undergrad

Donald
Donald - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:20PM EST

Every "expert" is claiming that gold is going to climb, but what if countries with gold reserves decide to sell their gold to buy paper currency for their financial bail outs? The US should start selling some of its assets to pay for some of its costs. Time to sell some gold that it's been holding for a rainy day because it's pouring buckets. Time to sell some land, like Ft Ord and the Presidio in SF. Time to sell AK back to Russia and take Palin with it.

- Thursday January 08, 2009 01:21PM EST

the thing is the falt of the poor econonic situation is w. bush stock at one time onded a good porshon of some big named cop. stocks what bathers me is bush has a big porshon the definse stolk so the more trups that die the fater his wallit gets but back to what i was saying erlear the bush famly are selling there stock in mass quntites making a chane reacton of the price of the stock he sells shot the price of buying them lower forsing others to sell theres as well which in lames terms damages the finachle system cosing the poor economic situation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Carlos H
Carlos H - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:24PM EST

This Dude is right on the money... If you are lucky enough to have some cash leftovers, you should keep it in cash...

- Thursday January 08, 2009 01:25PM EST

the thing is the falt of the poor econonic situation is w. bush stock at one time onded a good porshon of some big named cop. stocks what bathers me is bush has a big porshon the definse stolk so the more trups that die the fater his wallit gets but back to what i was saying erlear the bush famly are selling there stock in mass quntites making a chane reacton of the price of the stock he sells shot the price of buying them lower forsing others to sell theres as well which in lames terms damages the finachle system cosing the poor economic situation!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:25PM EST

The corruption of the democratic system has undermined the health of our economy to such an extent that it will likely never recover. No one person or administration is going to be able to straighten it out. The current crisis is simply the first phase of the total collapse that is soon to follow. My opinion? Within 5 years the dollar will be trading at 5% of it's current value while unemployment will be around 50%. The billionaire a__holes who created this mess will be the only ones who will survive.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:26PM EST

Russian and Arab currencies will never dominate. The dollar will prevail, the US will lead the rest of the world out of recession in a few years. Russia and the Arabs tie their currency to oil/gas. Tying currency to a commodity is a big mistake and the Russians and Arabs will find out why when oil hits $25/barrel.

Matt
Matt - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:29PM EST

All this and no rioting in the streets - but ya know what will cause the masses to riot is when TV signals are switched over to digital next month and millions of Americans will be cut off from American Idol, Dancing with the (naked) Stars, and The Simpsons.

Baldev
Baldev - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:30PM EST

This guy is hunderd percent right.More debt will never get anybody of debt.Every body running backward globally finally to be caught up in a trap with no outlet.Its always good to fight problem rather than running around.Lower intrest rate so that you can borrow rate even though previous debt still unpaid is an answer still unanswered.

Largo
Largo - Thursday January 08, 2009 01:30PM EST

The end of fiat currency will likely happen in the next six to eight years if we experience a full blown depression. At which point Gold/Silver in some percentage will be pegged to the dollar, greatly contracting the worlds the money supply and forcing countries to hold required amount of gold reserves. Platinum isn't really a currency metal (too rare) it's more of an industrial metal (used mostly in aerospace industry), so it will not be as important than Gold and Silver, which will dictate economic growth. The US is the largest holder of gold billion (supposidly: there are no actual audits of this information), and has the larger military than the next 12 largest countries combined (so China is not a threat). So it stands to reason the US will remain the world's superpower even if the dollar collapses. In fact, it would probably be more powerful, but only because everyone else would be so greatly weakened. However, quality of life will be worse for the US, and absolutely horrible for most of the world. The only threat to the US would be civil strife/ or war under the stresses of a currency overhaul.

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