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'The Worst Is Behind Us': Paulson Joins Street Luminaries, Declares Victory

Posted May 07, 2008 11:28am EDT by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Recession, Banking

With Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Merrill's John Thain chiming in, there's now near unanimity of opinion on Wall Street: The worst of the credit crisis is over.

Such comments seem outrageous given the latest batch of scary headlines from UBS, Fannie Mae, Legg Mason, Lazard, et al. But hope springs eternal on Wall Street, and the reality is the crisis in the debt markets has eased since JPMorgan's Fed-engineered purchase of Bear Stearns, which Paulson called "an inflection point." (Critics have used similar terms, but with a far different meaning.)

Meanwhile, even Henry "Mr. Sunshine" Blodget is starting to come around to the idea that the housing market may be hitting bottom, thanks to an op-ed by Cyril Moulle-Berteaux, managing partner of Traxis Partners, in The Wall Street Journal.

In making the case for a housing-market bottom, Moulle-Berteaux notes house price affordability has improved dramatically and the inventory of new homes is falling. (The piece appeared prior to Wednesday's weak report on pending sales of existing homes for March.)

The fund manager makes a compelling case, but omits the key element of financing. While demand for housing remains fairly stable and mortgage rates are still historically low, even buyers with high credit scores and large down payments are reportedly struggling to secure as lenders like Countrywide and WaMu grapple with the bubble's aftermath.

375 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday May 07, 2008 11:49AM EDT

The only thing missing from Paulson and Thain's statements are "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" banners in the background. They fought the good fight and won. Just ask them - they'll tell you.

Lorenzo
Lorenzo - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:04PM EDT

Always hard to tell the lies from the truth in US Finance and Politics but Paulson seems better than most.

Peter F
Peter F - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:07PM EDT

Still too early to tell. Houses around our neighborhood are not selling. The good news is that I haven't seen massive layoffs in the tech industry.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:07PM EDT

.... and they're right ... until the next multibillion dollar bank write down .... Taxpayers get ready: while there's no money for health care, social security, or investments in new energy sources, there will always be the political will to ask you to bail out the big banks ... again.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:09PM EDT

Um, the foreclosure market hasn't even hit it's stride yet. Appears this story is merely propaganda, which is what fueled this mess to begin with. (Soft landing anyone?)

sams
sams - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:10PM EDT

Mission accomplished... is that something like... oops, ya beat me to it.

Bartholomew
Bartholomew - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:15PM EDT

Paulson hasn't convinced me. I need to be 'shown' the proof. Bartholomew Allen

Hockeynut
Hockeynut - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:17PM EDT

Yes and these are the same guys that saw no problems in the economy just a year ago. Go ask the common consumer you idiots to find out how pinched they are because of food, fuel, energy, daycare, and healthcare costs. The so called experts are so out of touch with the common man that they are believing their own B.S.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:23PM EDT

This is a propaganda. With the energy prices right now, a lot of home owners are getting squiz. Less money to go around. I am a home onwer and I have less money to spend because of rising food/energy prices. They said inflation is under 6%, but whenever I go to grocery store, it seems a lot more than 6%. I just hope they are right.

Bill
Bill - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:29PM EDT

What a JOKE!! I work for a Bank and on a DAILY basis, I personally am turning down handfuls of people that owe more than their house is worth. I have another friend that is buying foreclosures from the bank that nobody knows is on their books. Why do we live in a market where lies continue to flow to cover up the fact that Gas is almost $4 and NOBODY is dancing in the streets but the putz's on Wall Street!?!? Talk about a HUGE JOKE! Let's narrow the FREEDOM OF CHOICE to choose between THREE PEOPLE That SHOULD NOT RUN A BANK, LET ALONE A COUNTRY.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:32PM EDT

The worst may be behind us, but what's infront is still pretty scary.

carlos g
carlos g - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:33PM EDT

we are in the midle of the hurricane , we still have an other 6 months to go, but you have to see the good side, we always comeback stronger, and better don't be afraid and invest your money now!!!!!!! that' is if you want to be some body, that's what the smart people is doing now

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:33PM EDT

They are right---and then they are wrong.It is still a very geographical thing.Among others South Fla,Va area of D.C.Las vegas certain California locations are nowhere the bottom when it comes to Housing supply and prices

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:34PM EDT

Finally some response and an appropriate action (Bear Stearns) from the comatose Mr. Paulson--his next focused task needs to be on a short, medium and long-term strategy to strengthen the dollar against all world currencies in order to promote stability and prosperity to US citizens!

brandi
brandi - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:34PM EDT

OH COME ON!!!!! what planet do these idiots live on????????????????????

Brian
Brian - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:35PM EDT

I live in Missouri and they are raising our taxes because tax revenues are down as consumer spending is subsiding. Our family is being squeezed with higher food, gas, and energy prices. How can they just raise our taxes, where do they think families will be able to come up with this extra money? We have 2 kids entering college which is estimated to cost $21,000 annually per student. Our wages are not keeping up, something is going to have to give. Believe me the worst is not behind us but around the corner.

John
John - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:37PM EDT

It's not the bottom for the dollar, and oil's gonna go much higher. Does anyone really believe this hoopla?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:38PM EDT

if this is the bottom i don't want to see the top... % of median income for a house payment AFTER 20% down and 30 year mortgage... Bay Area.. San Francisco, CA - 58.2% San Jose, CA - 55% how can anyone afford 55% of the median paycheck on a mortgage if they're unemployed? And don't believe those 'worker productivity' numbers either... if I produce 100 widgets today that sell for $10 and next year I produce 98 widgets and they sell for $11 (due to inflation), am I 7.8% more productive?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:39PM EDT

Yeap, Is all solved, people are upsidedown on their homes, massive foreclosures, layoffs, high fuel and food prices. Who are you kidding!!

DaveA
DaveA - Wednesday May 07, 2008 12:39PM EDT

What they barely mention is a large portion of loans are not being approved. I am not talking about poor credit (sub prime) denials; I am talking about mid 700 scores with 20 - 30% down denials. If people can not get loans, people can not sell houses. That is what is going to continue to strangle the housing market.

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