John Mauldin's 2009 Outlook: Deflation, Recession, New Market Lows

I am full of bull.

yeah lets find the most bearish of bear analysts to supplement our short positions! Go Tech Ticker!

The time frame sounds good for a rally. Check out GSIG and GTCB. They look good for now. Future infrastructure growth and green technologies are what i'm seeing.

He will be right if Obama and the Congress goes ahead with thier "New" New Deal. If they just cut taxes and forget the spending we will be looking good by the end of 2009 and the market will bottom sometime in Q2 of 2009.

i hope this guy is wrong, but he's not

He is sobering but correct!

save the bull....eat a camel....

He is wrong....

Cost of Living Index! That is all! --

He always tell frightening story........He is substitute for dracula........In Modern Economics........

Sounds like it depends on how long it will take to short the 750 billion dollar stimulus. Come off the old thinking folks and buy American... geezz

Don't assume the stimulus will come quickly. The job training program contained in the Green Jobs Act that was signed into law in November of 07 isn't even to the point of taking applications yet! When I called the Dept. of Labor to ask about it they told me that they have no idea when it will get started!!! What the hell are they waiting for? Maybe the plan is to wait untill Key West is under water to rally support!

HOLD ON TO YOUR HATS THINGS WILL GET WORSE I MEAN VERRY BAD

I read him in the summer and fall of 07. I wish I had paid attention and acted on what he had warned about back then.

JOHN.....WRONG TIE AND SHIRT COMBO!!!................................BUT GOOD ANALYSIS, as bearish as it is, it is the truth....but, please, tell the governments of this nation, Fed to State to County, to cut THEIR JOBS,THEIR PAYROLLS, THEIR BENEFITS, just like the private sector is doing!!. The Federal, State and Counties around this country are spending taxpayer money that is not there or "theirs"!!! It is the private sector middle class that has supported this whole economy, and when the middle is "slaughtered" like it has been now,this year, the top is crashing to the bottom!!!!!! THEN CUT TAXES FOR EVERYONE IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR.

JOHN.....WRONG TIE AND SHIRT COMBO!!!................................BUT GOOD ANALYSIS, as bearish as it is, it is the truth....but, please, tell the governments of this nation, Fed to State to County, to cut THEIR JOBS,THEIR PAYROLLS, THEIR BENEFITS, just like the private sector is doing!!. The Federal, State and Counties around this country are spending taxpayer money that is not there or "theirs"!!! It is the private sector middle class that has supported this whole economy, and when the middle is "slaughtered" like it has been now,this year, the top is crashing to the bottom!!!!!! THEN CUT TAXES FOR EVERYONE IN THE PRIVATE SECTOR.

Hang the politicians! Hang the CEOs! Hang the Wall Street fat cats! Hang the union members! Hang the government workers! Hang the greedy rich! Hang the sponging middle class! Hang the free-loading poor! It’s time the rest of us spoke up for ourseves!

Hang the politicians! Hang the CEOs! Hang the Wall Street fat cats! Hang the union members! Hang the government workers! Hang the greedy rich! Hang the sponging middle class! Hang the free-loading poor! It’s time the rest of us spoke up for ourselves!

This analysis assumes that recovery depends on restoring the consumer spending. The Obama stimulus is heavy in capital spending. If it succeeds, recovery could be stronger (and reinflation closer) because of the multiple effect of capital spending which we have not seen in a very long time. The continuing heavy spending on the military is also inflationary and it will be a slow exit from the wars. It is also possible to stabilize the housing market quicker; we haven't even tried yet.

Inflation tamed and moving down, monetary policy out of gas, commodities in a free fall, excess capacity everywhere, swamped in debt, creditors afraid to issue credit, corporate profits stressed, downward pressure on prices........all spells deflation. I think the major thing that can save this economy from this downward spiral is excessive and unprecedented government stimulus (which is what is going on right now).......instead of "drill, baby, drill", you have to tell the Fed to "print, baby, print". Only problem is...if the foreign bond holders that have US Treasurys sell, the first couple ones out will be okay, but then there will be a mad rush for the door, and dollar will go into a free fall.....and the deflationary cycle could continue.