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Roubini: U.S. Banking System Insolvent, Another $2.5T of Losses Coming

Posted Jan 20, 2009 10:17am EST by Henry Blodget in Newsmakers, Recession, Banking

From Clusterstock:

A couple of years ago, when Nouriel Roubini predicted that U.S. financial-system losses would total $1 trillion, everyone thought he was insane.  He has since revised his estimate.  Now he's looking for $3.6 trillion:

Bloomberg: U.S. financial losses from the credit crisis may reach $3.6 trillion, suggesting the banking system is “effectively insolvent,” said New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted last year’s economic crisis.

“I’ve found that credit losses could peak at a level of $3.6 trillion for U.S. institutions, half of them by banks and broker dealers,” Roubini said at a conference in Dubai today. “If that’s true, it means the U.S. banking system is effectively insolvent because it starts with a capital of $1.4 trillion. This is a systemic banking crisis.”

Losses and writedowns at financial companies worldwide have risen to more than $1 trillion since the U.S. subprime mortgage market collapsed in 2007, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

President Barack Obama will have to use as much as $1 trillion of public funds to shore up the capitalization of the banking sector, following the $350 billion injection by the Bush administration, Roubini told Bloomberg News. Congress last year approved a $700 billion rescue fund, of which half remains to be disbursed.

See Also: Why Are We So Afraid To Fix Banks The Right Way?


 

108 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:26AM EST

Would doing away with mark to market requirements help?

franck s
franck s - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:28AM EST

Why can not banks be nationalized and returned to private hands in a few years, after the problems are worked out? This country is already defacto socialist to 60% of its being for poor reasons. Why does everyone scream when nationalization is at hand for proper reasons?

richard
richard - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:31AM EST

No problem. Why are we paying back our loans? A creditor strike will force a resolution. Also, why can't consumers turn their debt into equity in a restructure and have the banking system "own" part of our future capital formation? We've invested in them.

Tank
Tank - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:32AM EST

God bless us. This won't be easy. But hey, then again, who knows, the USD seems to just multiply itself and a trillion dollars comes out of nowhere. Someone explain how we all get tax relief this year too? 95% of Americans are getting $500? How does that happen in the face of a trillion dollar bailout and 2 wars? Where does the money come from?

ecl
ecl - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:34AM EST

scary stuff - as if there wasn't enough - should we be pulling funds out of banks and putting in safes???!! FDIC ins. doesn't mean much when there is no money left in the Treasury!

DON P
DON P - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:35AM EST

B of A just paid dividend to the share holders yet they have their hand out. Lets see how da new man deals with the greed and corruption.

risky777
risky777 - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:37AM EST

REMEMBER THE ORACLE OWNS WFC @ @&/@^ $ per SHARE=NUFF SAID

Gusserson
Gusserson - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:38AM EST

Well don't just stand there, float 'em a loan.

dr. ron
dr. ron - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:41AM EST

The visual of VP Cheney going out of office in a wheelchair is a perfect metaphor for the incompetence and ineptitude of the Bush-Cheney administration. They "kneecapped" the American economy, tossing millions out of work and Cheney will roll his wheelchair back to his ranch in Wyoming admist the millions he made from Halliburton. Good riddance, Bush and Cheney, and don't let the door hit you in the ass on the way out.

Admirer
Admirer - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:41AM EST

Nationalization and liquidation may be the only way out. It creates an orderly process for cleaner, newer banks to come to the forefront. Current bankruptcy laws are incapable of handling something of this magnitude because the amount of capital required to embalm the corpses is not available on the open market at a price the taxpayers can afford. Takeovers are clean, stock holders and some bondholders are wiped out because of the insolvency, and the United States acts as the self-financing trustee in bankruptcy to liquidate the assets.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:41AM EST

If it stinks this bad outside the Skank of America, imagine the stench inside for the employees? Ken Lewis is only the tip of the iceberg. There are an abundance of idiot managers at the bank. The government has to step in soon.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:41AM EST

None of this is a surprise. To me, all along this has been a matter of our venturing down the wrong path. I’m not of the sentiment that everything was so groovy back in the ‘90s, and if things could have only stayed that way it would be such a gas. I thought this fake boom sucked from the start and I knew it was doomed to fail.

Art
Art - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:43AM EST

Where do they come up with these numbers? This means that the US is on the verge of collapse.

Admirer
Admirer - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:43AM EST

Nationalization and liquidation may be the only way out. It creates an orderly process for cleaner, newer banks to come to the forefront. Current bankruptcy laws are incapable of handling something of this magnitude because the amount of capital required to embalm the corpses is not available on the open market at a price the taxpayers can afford. Takeovers are clean, stock holders and some bondholders are wiped out because of the insolvency, and the United States acts as the self-financing trustee in bankruptcy to liquidate the assets.

MICHAEL C
MICHAEL C - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:48AM EST

You think it's bad now, just wait until you see the deliberate collapse of the dollar by 2010 which was discussed 3/18/2008 in a closed session of the House. This has happend only four times in our history. (See history of The Central Banking System. This is our FOURTH and all have eventually led to the collapse of our currency!) First- Bank of North America Second- 1st Bank of US Third - 2nd Bank of US Fourth -Federal Reserve Bank Can you say AMERO. :- ( WAKE UP AMERICA!!!

ronen
ronen - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:48AM EST

Someone call the doctor! Gotta case of banks bi-polar!

Conan
Conan - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:52AM EST

Until WE THE PEOPLE force Congress to recognize their own culbability in this mess, WE are doomed to see a repeated & prolonged decline in our countries colective fortunes. Jobs will contine to flee with the Corp Tax burden and regulations. Individual living standards will decline rapidly as jobs are lost and the tax burden increases on those who still have a job. The failing infrastructure of the cities will become ghetto's and Detroit like appearance. If the answer continues to be PRINT MORE MONEY and Congress trys to decide which banks and companies (or Unions) they think should be bailed out....then we are lost in a sea of debt, with money that is worth nothing and an empty job market, even if we had a society able to buy anything. I think I'll go buy some farm land to grow my own food, protect it with the weapons I own and watch the liberals continue to attempt to do things with other peoples money! My concern then is the tax on cows flatulance that the EPA wants to pass!

James
James - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:56AM EST

The money spent now comes from China based on their willingness to believe that our children will pay for our bills. As things are going now, our children will not be able to pay our debt.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday January 20, 2009 10:58AM EST

they better start doing that now instead of celebrating the take of the white house, things are plummeting here...god save our souls.

DianaC
DianaC - Tuesday January 20, 2009 11:04AM EST

Ok Let's see here...Bank of America bought up CountryWide's nasty loans ...Bank of America/CountryWide involved in nasty lawsuit saying they had to make these mortgages right with the people they gave loans to...The Fed's gave Bank of America Billions of dollars for restructure...Bank of America still falling down the tubes...No loans that they purchased from CountryWide has been modified.. Feds give Bank of America more money to stop foreclosures...still no loans have been modified... Bank of America back again with hand held out for more of America's tax money...but you better not be late on your mortgage payment even though our taxes is what is keeping them afloat. Now Obama is releasing the balance of the TARP funds Bank of America to get more of our money without helping to stop the Court Ordered Lawsuit of Foreclosures....Hmmmm What's wrong with this picture?

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