Sunday, July 20, 2008, 9:32AM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

Bulls Fall from Their Perch: Victims of Oil, Financials and Overconfidence

Posted May 09, 2008 04:55pm EDT by Aaron Task in Investing, Banking

"It wasn't those planes that killed Kong...It was beauty that killed the beast."

The rally from the mid-March lows came to a screeching halt this week amid surging oil prices and renewed concern about financials after pitiful results this week from Fannie Mae, AIG, Legg Mason and others.

Those hurt but what really killed the market's momentum was overconfidence.

Last weekend the market chatter was all about the stock market's "breakout," which appears to have peaked, at least for the near-term, when the S&P 500 hit 1422 intraday on May 2. Traders everywhere seemed to be getting bullish and even veteran market watcher Richard Russell was uncharacteristically upbeat in Barron's last weekend, fueling  talk of how "Dow Theory" was signaling a new bull phase. (Dow Theory is based on the relationship between the Dow Industrials and Transports, which are likely to be under additional pressure Monday after FedEx's warning late Friday.)

This week brought a lot of chatter from Wall Street titans, including Hank Paulson and Jamie Dimon, about the credit crisis being over, or in its final throes.

Too much optimism can be a dangerous thing because if everyone is bullish that probably means they've placed bets accordingly - and short sellers have already covered positions -- leaving the market more vulnerable to a decline.

On that note, kudos to Jeff Saut of Raymond James who warned about the "overbought" state of the market generally, and financials specifically, in an interview Monday on Tech Ticker.

Kudos as well to Helene Meisler, who correctly predicted more short-term upside but trouble in early May during her Tech Ticker appearance on April 21.

Meisler, a technician who writes TheStreet.com's Top Stocks newsletter, has been writing about other unconventional explanations for the market's recent moves. Specifically, the stock market's relationship to bond yields -- which fell significantly this week after hitting their highest levels since February on Monday -- and the yen's strength vs. the dollar.

It's too arcane to got into detail here, especially on a Friday. But think about it this way: Falling Treasury yields and a rising yen reflect traders unwinding bullish bets and dumping riskier assets, which is what stocks had become after the S&P's roughly 13% rally from its March 17 low to May 2 high inspired too much talk about "bottoms" and "breakouts."

17 Comments

Thomas
Thomas - Friday May 09, 2008 09:38PM EDT

We shall see how the market performs next week. Im in the camp that the DJI,SPX will continue to trend lower for another week or so until the low end of the tradeing range is reached.We realize we are not in a Bull market.That the rally up from the march depressed lows was a Bear market rally that stalled out and ended on wednesday. Odds favor that the DJI,SPX trends down here in May to low end of tradeing range for a variety of reasons.So the old saying sell in may and go away just might play out this year in this bear mode market we are in now. SDS,DXD.

you
Chris S - Friday May 09, 2008 09:45PM EDT

play the pound vs yen. Any way, fear, greed, history repeats itself.

madmilker57
madmilker57 - Saturday May 10, 2008 08:41AM EDT

"WALL STREET LYNCHING".....dang! a great book title....oops! it is!

Carlton
Carlton - Saturday May 10, 2008 09:00AM EDT

I say don't buy anything until September

you
Karl C - Saturday May 10, 2008 11:47AM EDT

Meisler's prediction of a bank rally in late April ending with the FOMC meeting worked for me. Now I'd like to know from a technician if there is any particular meaning to the specific declines we saw this week in the Dow and S&P. Monday, Tuesday, and Friday the sharp drops were at the open and while the markets fought back on Tues, Wednesday was a down day with another sharp drop around around 2:30. I'm not a technician but if we saw the opposite activity (steep moves up near the close) I think some might say that was short covering. Are these moves just 'profit taking' or is there a more subtle explanation?

you
fourtecman - Saturday May 10, 2008 12:22PM EDT

I am watching the Housing Bill and if the President really decides to Veto it. If housing dones not at least stabalize or the market can see a working plan to stabalize it we are going to see an 11500 DOW in less than 60 days. Time for "Wall Street" to start looking at Main Street because pretting soon even the necessary business are going to be hit. If Joe Six Pack is not spending it is just a matter of time before the corportate raiders have nothing to raid. I m just waiting to her that the credit card companies cut back the limits on their clients cards just like the banks did with equity lines. When you can't afford gas and food the problem is deeper than "Wall Street" is factoring in. HOUSING HAS TO BE FIXED before there is any real move to the market. Look at us we are reading this on the weekend instead of spending time with friends and family playing.

you
fourtecman - Saturday May 10, 2008 12:23PM EDT

I am watching the Housing Bill and if the President really decides to Veto it. If housing dones not at least stabalize or the market can see a working plan to stabalize it we are going to see an 11500 DOW in less than 60 days. Time for "Wall Street" to start looking at Main Street because pretting soon even the necessary business are going to be hit. If Joe Six Pack is not spending it is just a matter of time before the corportate raiders have nothing to raid. I m just waiting to her that the credit card companies cut back the limits on their clients cards just like the banks did with equity lines. When you can't afford gas and food the problem is deeper than "Wall Street" is factoring in. HOUSING HAS TO BE FIXED before there is any real move to the market. Look at us we are reading this on the weekend instead of spending time with friends and family playing.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Saturday May 10, 2008 04:35PM EDT

Yes Karl, there is an explanation and I gave it to you earlier this week. Aaron calls it a "conspiracy theory". Think about federal reserve intervention and you will find the answer. I'm not fighting the fed, I'm just trying to get the most out of what the current stock and bond markets' investment opportunities have to offer.

you
altask - Saturday May 10, 2008 05:31PM EDT

Karl C: The more "subtle" explanation is what I tried to explain above - relationships between stocks and bonds, and stocks and dollar/yen. As far as the TA crowd, my sense is most are in the "this is just a breather" camp, i.e. optimism remains intact. As of Friday morning, Meisler was in the "correction" camp in part b/c of the "complacency" she sees elsewhere. I'm inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt. As for the Y! Finance User's comment about my calling "it" a conspiracy theory, I'm not sure I follow b/c I basically agree w/what he's saying about the Fed. Pls elaborate. - Aaron Task

you
Jack Hallaran - Saturday May 10, 2008 11:10PM EDT

I made 1500.00 on one trade Friday. The Bulls are alive and well!

you
Dennis - Sunday May 11, 2008 10:47AM EDT

Hello look at the sector markets. Oil is at a all time high were as the consomer is looking at a smaller spendable income. Adjust you investing style. Real property in areas are falling in areas. The midwest energy producing area is in a housing shortage for workers. Open your perspective

you
sagan95054 - Sunday May 11, 2008 07:14PM EDT

its all a gamble more than an investment SEX LIES and MANIPULATION

you
cueb3 - Sunday May 11, 2008 11:05PM EDT

Four months ago I told my broker to expect a 11,500 market. I have corrected and see 11,800. I'm sixty one years old and have been looking for a job for over a year. I'm just going to take the two modest pensions I have, take my social security and say to hell with it. I bet I'm not the only one on this plane of thought! Hey young folks that do not want to hire senior workers - mull that situation over.

Nagim G
Nagim G - Monday May 12, 2008 03:33AM EDT

HEIIO

tom m
tom m - Monday May 12, 2008 08:34AM EDT

Oil will determine the future of America, unless people buy cars that give at least thirty two miles a gallon, then we are all in for a long struggle to survive....

you
erndog006 - Monday May 12, 2008 10:33AM EDT

gov. shoud bring the oil down,and we will be happy!

you
sweetwilliam458 - Monday May 12, 2008 11:23AM EDT

OIL OIL OIL All those stupid drivers out there that think they are on a race track doing 80 miles an hour going no place, SLOW DOWN. From 75 to 55 , you have to drive 400 miles to gain 55 minutes time. The Gov. is not going to lower the speed limit , the politicians want you to burn more fuel, they collect more taxes that way. Like the Indians say, they speak with a forked tongue. God bless America, we sure need it.

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