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Only Time Can Cure What Ails Us: Stocks Slump on Bailout, Stimulus News

Posted Feb 10, 2009 02:25pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking
Stocks slumped Tuesday in the wake of Tim Geithner's midday announcement of the new bailout plan and the Senate's subsequent approval of the stimulus bill.

In recent trading, the Dow and S&P were each down about 4% while the Nasdaq was off by 3.3% as any goodwill created by last week's rally (the first up week in five) dissipated quickly.

"This [bailout] package may help banks to be able to lend but they have to be willing to lend and consumers willing to borrow," says Vitaliy Katsenelson, a portfolio manager at Investment Management Associates, author of Active Value Investing. "The only cure for what we have going on is time. Instant gratification is not in the cards."

Clearly not, and not even for the "stress test" element of the plan, which Katsenelson calls a "net positive." But it's only a positive if the government allows bad banks to fail, which doesn't seem to be the case, as detailed here.

For these and other reasons, Katsenelson continues to avoid the big bank stocks but does recommend one financial with a great brand and (relatively) clean balance sheet.
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141 Comments

Golfifun
Golfifun - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:40PM EST

#1

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:40PM EST

This is really too bad... We are screwed... Dow is down almost 400 points as I write this. Obama Adminstration has no clue, the Bush Administration had no clue... I think if anyone were to say that they understand the animal that is wacking the worlds' economies, be it a poster here or a Nobel Prize winner, they are in La-La Land.

Mark W
Mark W - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:41PM EST

Great Depression #2=GD2, better get use to this acronym. LOL

Mark W
Mark W - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:41PM EST

Great Depression #2=GD2, better get use to this acronym. LOL

shortandcurlies
shortandcurlies - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:42PM EST

If Obama wants to spur consumer/investor confidence then maybe he shouldn't be on TV every 10 minutes using the phrases "Great Depression", "economic catastrophe", and "downward spiral". Just shut up and stop reminding everyone how screwed we are and maybe people will gain some confidence.

DNCN JIM
DNCN JIM - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:42PM EST

Aaron, you are so right!!!Time is the key right now. The money is in most of the banks, but, they are only going to lwnd to the most credit-worthy customers. Can you really blame them??? By lending to a lot of customers,that were not credit-worthy, helped get us where we are today, in the housing and financial market. If people are without jobs,there is no income,long range, and they are not eligible for a loan. It's really a CATCH-22, in so many areas. I certainly don't want my bank loaning out money , that the chances are slim, for repayment. Investors are not going to invest in bank stocks, if this is back to business as usual. I intend to invest pretty heavily,in bank stocks,soon, Maybe today. Just looking for the right time to get back in. Another CATCH-22???? JIM HSV ALA

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:43PM EST

Manufacturing products here that other countries need is the only thing that can save us.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:44PM EST

US Citizens (please stop calling us consumers), are out of money or out of work entirely. More credit will not cure the problem, only saving money will. Taking out more loans to buy Chinese made junk will not help the US economy. All these stimuli are going to extend this downturn. Recessions are a natural thing, it cleans out malinvestments.

Gary
Gary - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:45PM EST

The market has priced out the Obama porkulus plan, and wealth redistribution is a sour pill to swallow. This is just the beginning folks, Obama's socialism will drive the Dow below 6000.

nguyentin34
nguyentin34 - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:45PM EST

Let Mr BO handle this situation pls.

danny
danny - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:56PM EST

I do not know this to be true so can anyone elaborate. I heard the reason for the first bailout TARP is that on Sept 18 2008 over 550 billion was taken out of money market accounts in a matter of hours. HELP

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:57PM EST

A good time to buy banks was ten years ago. New consumer loans are a extremely low volume many banks will fail over next 2 years. Jobless rate will be 14-16% or worse as many boomers who lost jobs are now unable to get a new job because of age/health. No job for you!! I know as have been looking and if you're in 50's why hire you when there is 20 guy's in 30's or 40's. Get a dog a small one who doesn't cost much best company just ask Micky Roarke. And thank god for free porn and 2 for 1 coupons.

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:58PM EST

Time...that's one thing that those who paid too much for their houses and stocks DO NOT have.

williamm
williamm - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:58PM EST

"Obama's socialism will drive the Dow below 6000." How is trying to get private capital rather than handing taxpayer money directly to banks socialism? Why not start using some critical thinking skills rather than viewing the world through ideological glasses!

Brent
Brent - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:58PM EST

Hey mogleytheman, You want to know where to put savings? Try gold, and silver. Physically held gold and silver are "no body else's obligation". The reason you and others lost money on traditional savings vehicles is that one man's investment is another man's debt (bonds, etc.). While gold pays no interest, you are not loaning our your principal (that may not get paid back). Put your savings in non-dollar denominated assets ... in preparation for the great inflation that is coming!

you
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:59PM EST

Too bad Obama said the economy would suffer if this doesn't pass. Well, it passed and now he's not looking so smart. Who has he been listening to since he got in the white house?

John
John - Tuesday February 10, 2009 02:59PM EST

It is a bit much to tell us to believe a minion of the government who cheats on his income tax.

neo
neo - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:02PM EST

Confidence weakens and the Con is exposed.

Brent
Brent - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:04PM EST

Hoover was right. Best to let the recession/depression run its course. let those who took too much risk go under. And those regular folks, that may not have taken much risk, but did not save anything for a rainy day, they must go under too, as then must learn a lesson as well. If collectively, as a nation, we do not learn to live beneath our means, then we will repeat it sooner than the typical 70-80 years (which is the collective memory of two generations). Why did this happen 80 years after 1929 ... because the last of those that remembered the hardship died and thus stopped telling their stories.

Count DeMonet
Count DeMonet - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:09PM EST

Mama!!!

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