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Only Time Can Cure What Ails Us: Stocks Slump on Bailout, Stimulus News

Posted Feb 10, 2009 02:25pm EST by Aaron Task in Investing, Recession, Banking
Stocks slumped Tuesday in the wake of Tim Geithner's midday announcement of the new bailout plan and the Senate's subsequent approval of the stimulus bill.

In recent trading, the Dow and S&P were each down about 4% while the Nasdaq was off by 3.3% as any goodwill created by last week's rally (the first up week in five) dissipated quickly.

"This [bailout] package may help banks to be able to lend but they have to be willing to lend and consumers willing to borrow," says Vitaliy Katsenelson, a portfolio manager at Investment Management Associates, author of Active Value Investing. "The only cure for what we have going on is time. Instant gratification is not in the cards."

Clearly not, and not even for the "stress test" element of the plan, which Katsenelson calls a "net positive." But it's only a positive if the government allows bad banks to fail, which doesn't seem to be the case, as detailed here.

For these and other reasons, Katsenelson continues to avoid the big bank stocks but does recommend one financial with a great brand and (relatively) clean balance sheet.
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141 Comments

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:09PM EST

It's clear now that the SOB Bush gave us each a measly 300 dollars ($150 Billion), and gave (without any regulation or oversight) his rich highly connected bank buddies $700,000,000,000....knowing that there would soon be these strict regulation put on the banking crooks and other super rich he helped create and encourage with favorable legislation, and neglected oversight.....I say hold him criminally accountable, and open an investigation of his entire time in office, including the war he illegally started (which basically destroyed World economies), and the DEATHS that unnecessarily resulted from his reckless invasion.

danny
danny - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:09PM EST

will the FED let the dow close below 8000 today? That seems to be there holding point. What is another few hundred billion anyway

jes
jes - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:10PM EST

i enjoyed this video and interview, very well done.

yogi9448
yogi9448 - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:11PM EST

Only Time.... Horse Hockey. Our personnel fiscal irresponsiblilty got us here. Our failure to hold elected officials to fiscal responsibity has made it worse. The Dem House/Senate want to fix the economy by taking more income from those who earn it, but for them that's normal, they are sticking to tradition. However, no worries mate, I am changing my status to illegal alien, minority sort-of-working for acorn and our new shining path government will take-care of me.

david
david - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:12PM EST

People have massive debt. Credit cards are maxed out. Home equity is tapped out. People are losing their jobs at record rates. Sorry folks. How can an economy that depends mostly on people buying stuff they cannot afford going to turn around when there is no new source for people to get money and credit is already maxed?

Jim
Jim - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:12PM EST

I was hoping the new bail out plan would instill some form of confidence but that is not going to happen so be prepared for a long painful path back to avg. Once assets are low enough some risk taker will start buying and make a fortune over time. Its capitalism 101. Buy low sell high. Unfortunately for a lot of us its going to be very very painful.

d d
d d - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:13PM EST

I am so tired of seeing our stock market look like a yo yo. Doesn't anybody have any faith or postive insight??? This is ridiculous to watch all based on what "ifs". Bunch of worry warts who react on speculations and no basis of truth behind any of it. I swear they are re-acting to the salary cap imposed to get even. The rest of the planet is laughing at us.

david
david - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:16PM EST

I have a couple of extra 4-person tents. I have a feeling I may be giving them away to needy people after they are evicted from their homes and have to move into Hooverville's. I will keep one for myself just in case.

Coyote Ford
Coyote Ford - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:17PM EST

Who knows if it already hasnt run its course. These guys on Tech Ticker are set against Instant Gratification - Well tell that to the Entitlement Generation !!! These young punks dont know HOW to wait - its not in their psyche !!! In the meantime, dont let the 400 point drop today frighten you for all time, please.

tobe
tobe - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:18PM EST

Yes, that means after the big wedge of the bottom of pyramid drowned with losing job, home, and family, while top of pyramid still staying dry and cozy with most of that. Modulate the cycle of economy is one of the reason why kids learn Economics in colleges. And one of the reason we pay federal tax. If you are in the bottom to mid level of wedge, you wouldn't say only time can cure all. If you are in Ark, then it make sense to wait and see the cleaner world ater time washes out all wrongs.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:20PM EST

Paradigm shift! I don't want to ever hear again the phrase "consumer spending is 2/3 of our economy". We have a change for a new economy based on agriculture, manufacturing and energy conservation.

frankmargel.com
frankmargel.com - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:21PM EST

WOW!!! I LOVE THIS HYPE!!! The markets will begin to now reflect true value. The bad debts are being sold as talking heads begin to cheer. Short term money managers and traders who rely on hype will jump from one story windows. The real value in watching all this unfold comes from long term guidance and value investing. In the future the price of a financial security will be closer to fair valuation. This is great for long term investors who need real guidance to base buy/sell decisions. It's a refresher course in basic buy/sell psychology. Future market movers are those who survive the next five to ten years, vs. market traders who survive the next couple of weeks. Go long on good performance and large cap stocks or lose your butt playing short term spreads. Good luck to all who invest in America. My view bucks recent trends and suggests investors should go long, and BUY BUY BUY...! Eat some beans and call your financial planners. SMILES...

Radhakrishna
Radhakrishna - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:23PM EST

Hey pessimistic folks out there! It is a parabolic curve. After testing Nov.20, 08 low of DOW 7752, need only (-)334 points, market will start shooting up + 20% by spring, due to extremely oversold condition and tremendous liquidity Govt. put out there. Mark my words.

Whit Chambers
Whit Chambers - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:23PM EST

Under the Geithner standard, A-Rod can be commissioner of baseball.

kazi
kazi - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:25PM EST

why do you think any of these tech ticker heads along with this porkulis face dude ever new what is was to work your back and pay everything and be left with o pray for mercy and do it now.

Anandakos
Anandakos - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:27PM EST

To All Armchair Economists, There are no easy answers to a deflationary spiral. Letting it run its course has not been tried since the 1870's, and I don't think we want gunfights on Main Street. On the other hand, shoveling greenbacks into the flames mindlessly doesn't do much except feed the flames. So what to do? Well, the rule of holes seems appropriate: we need to stop digging. To me that means that whatever we've been doing for the past while needs to stop and someone on the surface needs to look for a ladder. What we've been doing for nearly thirty years is vastly favoring the private side of the economy to the detriment of public goods. I know most of you don't BELIEVE in public goods. But there are some, and they've been under-invested for a good while. Schools are rotting in many states, community colleges are bursting at the seams (they by the way are the NUMBER ONE best investment in human capital available anywhere). Highways, waterways, water and sewer systems, and electrical grids are eroding and corroding. Rush Limbaugh proposed the "Limbaugh-Obama" revitalization plan -- which is really just more shoveling -- but it does provide a precedent for a private citizen to join with the President in planning for the recovery. Here's the "Anandakos-Obama" recovery plan: 1) Remove all hole-digging from the stimulus package. Even Obama's $1000 refundable "every taxpayer" credit. ESPECIALLY the give-away loss carryback refunds. Tax cuts probably won't get spent, and if one has lost ones job waiting until next February they aren't very exciting. The only hole-digging I'd keep is the $1,500 credit for education; cost: about $30 billion 2) Give back the state recissions and increase the revenue sharing for health and unemployment protections. In the current credit environment states can't borrow even for sound projects and to meet their severely strained operations needs; cost: about $150 billion 3) Spend whatever it takes to bring all "D"-grade and below infrastructure elements up to at least a "C" within three years, excepting water and sewer systems. Since they require significant digging and disruption, they should be brought up at least to "A" grade through replacement where necessary, and if only repaired at least to "B" grade. cost: maybe $200 billion if done aggressively The total cost here would be something $400 billion plus and it would nearly all be spent quickly. The average economic multiplier on these sorts of activities is somewhere between 1.5 and 2 so with an average Federal tax of 18% the government would get back about 30% or so of its investment within the timeframe of the stimulus. This is the ladder folks. We've been fixated on private navel-gazing so long that we've completely forgotten how much our private efforts depend on public goods. Oh, and as an add on the stimulus bill, I'd propose a new Federal contracting law. Since mandatory sentencing is the solution du jour for criminality, I'd add a manadatory five year sentence for any contractor who receives stimulus funds and who can be shown to have willfully defrauded the contracting agency. If there was collusion by a contracts officer of the contracting agency, they would share the mandatory sentence. We need some accountability here.

mark
mark - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:31PM EST

Somebody please explain to me why we are giving billions to banks and not getting any ownership in return. Someone please organize a revolution. No violence needed. Just force ALL the incumbents out. Start fresh with a return to sanity. No more deficit spending. What if our social security, medicare, medicaid etc.. taxes went towards creating a large "bank" that could lend money to only the most secure borrowers? Let it earn interest. Keep it from being spent by the retards that run the country. And, maybe it won't go bankrupt.

ezshooter
ezshooter - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:33PM EST

The sooner real estate bottoms, the sooner we can make our recovery. No one knows how much loss the banks will have to write off in the next three years. Obama will do a better job reacting than Grampy McCain or Sarah Palin. Palin would have McCain shoved down a staircase by now.

Anandakos
Anandakos - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:33PM EST

To All Armchair Economists, There are no easy answers to a deflationary spiral. Letting it run its course has not been tried since the 1870's, and I don't think we want gunfights on Main Street. On the other hand, shoveling greenbacks into the flames mindlessly doesn't do much except feed the flames. So what to do? Well, the rule of holes seems appropriate: we need to stop digging. To me that means that whatever we've been doing for the past while needs to stop and someone on the surface needs to look for a ladder. What we've been doing for nearly thirty years is vastly favoring the private side of the economy to the detriment of public goods. I know most of you don't BELIEVE in public goods. But there are some, and they've been under-invested for a good while. Schools are rotting in many states, community colleges are bursting at the seams (they by the way are the NUMBER ONE best investment in human capital available anywhere). Highways, waterways, water and sewer systems, and electrical grids are eroding and corroding. Rush Limbaugh proposed the "Limbaugh-Obama" revitalization plan -- which is really just more shoveling -- but it does provide a precedent for a private citizen to join with the President in planning for the recovery. Here's the "Anandakos-Obama" recovery plan: 1) Remove all hole-digging from the stimulus package. Even Obama's $1000 refundable "every taxpayer" credit. ESPECIALLY the give-away loss carryback refunds. Tax cuts probably won't get spent, and if one has lost ones job waiting until next February they aren't very exciting. The only hole-digging I'd keep is the $1,500 credit for education; cost: about $30 billion 2) Give back the state recissions and increase the revenue sharing for health and unemployment protections. In the current credit environment states can't borrow even for sound projects and to meet their severely strained operations needs; cost: about $150 billion 3) Spend whatever it takes to bring all "D"-grade and below infrastructure elements up to at least a "C" within three years, excepting water and sewer systems. Since they require significant digging and disruption, they should be brought up at least to "A" grade through replacement where necessary, and if only repaired at least to "B" grade. cost: maybe $200 billion if done aggressively The total cost here would be something $400 billion plus and it would nearly all be spent quickly. The average economic multiplier on these sorts of activities is somewhere between 1.5 and 2 so with an average Federal tax of 18% the government would get back about 30% or so of its investment within the timeframe of the stimulus. This is the ladder folks. We've been fixated on private navel-gazing so long that we've completely forgotten how much our private efforts depend on public goods. Oh, and as an add on the stimulus bill, I'd propose a new Federal contracting law. Since mandatory sentencing is the solution du jour for criminality, I'd add a manadatory five year sentence for any contractor who receives stimulus funds and who can be shown to have willfully defrauded the contracting agency. If there was collusion by a contracts officer of the contracting agency, they would share the mandatory sentence. We need some accountability here.

Victor
Victor - Tuesday February 10, 2009 03:36PM EST

Our whole society living in debt and pollution needs to subside and we all know it. Obama is trying to do what he can but what can he really do? It is you that doesn't want to spend, it is you that is scared of tough times and getting laid off. Not the fat cats in Washington. This is inflation and the bubble busted. Let things come down in price, they need to. Think about it. You have the same amount of money and now things are cheaper which means the dollar is stronger and you are richer. No? Rebuttal?

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