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From Silicon Alley Insider, May 15, 2008:
Carl Icahn owns 59 million Yahoo shares (YHOO), or 4% of the company. John Paulson, head of merger-arb shop Paulson & Co., who made a reported $3 billion personally shorting sub-prime last year, owns 50 million shares, Reuters says. So that's about 8% of Yahoo between them. Icahn is cleared to buy another 4%, which would make 12%.
No question how those shares will vote in a proxy fight. Then there's the 16% owned by Capital Research, whose Gordon Crawford was "extremely angry" with Jerry Yang for blowing the original Microsoft (MSFT) deal. And the 7% or so owned by Legg Mason's Bill Miller, who as much as said he'd be happy with $34 a share.
Add all of them together and you're at about 30%-35% of Yahoo's stock. Bill Miller won't vote to sack Yahoo's board unless he knows Microsoft will play ball, but let's assume Carl can at least create the impression that Microsoft's on board. Then Icahn, Paulson, & Co. only need to make it clear that they can scrape together another 15%-20% of the votes...and Jerry Yang and Roy Bostock will be on the next Seattle plane.
There are a lot of assumptions in that article. Any idea what Icahn will do with the company if he can't get MSFT back in the areana?
Right after MS buys Yahoo, they will start losing money. Yahoo customers most likely chose Yahoo because they chose it over a MS/Hotmail product. I predict Google betting a boost.
Microsoft won't offer $34-35 because they don't have to. More likely, they won't even offer $33 anymore. Watch this deal get done closer to $31. Microsoft is in the driver's seat and Carl will take the money and run!
Who cares if Microsoft doesn't get to $33 again. Assuming Icahn got in at an average of $26.....and it's probably lower....if it went through at $31, he'd have a cool - and quick - $250 million profit! Not bad for a couple of weeks work!
david m, stop your garbage speculative!!! microsoft is a company with vision and they can only make yahoo better! look what microsoft did for hotmail!!! what about the ford syn system!!! The list could go on...
carl is a company monger. Hope Yang and his board throw this coterie out.
Yahoo! users will revolt. None of these investors seem to really care about the long-term prospects of Yahoo! They are simply wanting to cash in on some Yahoo! shares without any concern about the innovation and market balance that Yahoo! generates. Additionally, when Yahoo! users begin defecting in droves (which may be slightly difficult given that the only alternative will be Google, and Google doesn't even begin to come close to the breadth of services offered by Yahoo!) Microsoft will be stuck holding the bag, while Icahn and his crowd will have pocketed a nice profit and walked away to ruin yet another great company - one that has done a lot more good for society and humanity than Microsoft or the profits of these billionaire investors ever will.
SHORT YAHOO NOW!! AND IF YOU OWN YAHOO; GET OUT WHILE YOU STILL CAN. NOTHING WILL COME OUT OF THIS EVENTUALLY. IN THE END; YAHOO IS NOT EVEN WORTH THEIR CURRENT STOCK PRICE.....
I have only one question to Carl Ichan and other big investors, who start buying up the shares of YHOO after the company refused the MSFT offer. What is the value that they contribute to YHOO or MSFT? "I believe that a combination between Microsoft and Yahoo is by far the most sensible path for both companies," Icahn wrote. I wonder what makes Ichan an expert to tell what is the "most sensible path" for not only one, but two companies? Does Ichan really have any other motivation in this than turning a quick profit? Frankly, I don't think so. What he should really say is that "I believe that a combination between Microsoft and Yahoo is by far the biggest opportunity for me to make money. Investing in YHOO or MSFT separately does not turn quick profit." Does Ichan give a danm what happens to either YHOO or MSFT the day after the forced merger, when he is getting out of the game? Safe to assume that hell, no. He moves on to find similar deal. It's funny, how literally a few people, who actually could not care less about any of these companies can determine their future even by ruining one or both of them. There really should be some kind of responsibility here: if these investors were eventually wrong and the forced deal actually causing damage to both companies (would not be without precedence) they should have pre-determined liability, where not only their profit would be lost, but they would have to pay for the damages.
As a portal... nothing really beats Yahoo. As a search engine service.... Yahoo started losing the game when they abandoned the use of Inktomi, years ago... their search engine algorithms don't come close to Google....Most website developers developing coding strategies to be "found" in Google... NOT Yahoo.... I can remember when Yahoo was favored over Google... long long ago. Unless Yahoo figures out a way to get more revenue from being a "portal" rather than a search engine..... they are bound to sink further. Microsoft will only worsen the search engine side of things... they have NEVER been able to make a predictable search engine. They will focus on getting the viewers and advertising accounts. So... take the money and run. The Microsoft offer enables some people to recoup a tad more money. There are thousands of people who have already lost their shirts on Yahoo.... when they came in at inflated prices a few years ago.
While $31 is enough for Icahn to make a nice profit, that's probably not the case for Paulson & Co., Capital Research, Legg Mason, and a lot of individual investors. The 52 week high is $34.08, which is also the 2-year high. At $34.10 or higher, anyone who's bought YHOO since 02/03/06 will have a chance to make a profit. If Icahn wants to get his board voted in he's going to have to put together a deal at $34 or higher.
I'm long yahoo and think they should've split the middle and come together on price around $33-35 share.
I just wish we could get this over in the fewest of extra innings.
Guys, do we really want to go with people like Icahn who really want some quick money? World is not full of good people, and it is not full of bad people. So, there is always a close tussle between the good and the bad. We choose whose side we want to be on. Is greed everything?
Yes, greed is everything in this context. I am here to make money. Period. If I can have a Yahoo stock at $30+ now or in 2 years, I'll take it now and move on. Have a look at the 1yr, 2yr and 5yr chart for Yahoo. Peaks and valleys, but no growth. Why should we think that will change? Because Jerry Yang says so?
Yes, greed is everything in this context. I am here to make money. Period. If I can have a Yahoo stock at $30+ now or in 2 years, I'll take it now and move on. Have a look at the 1yr, 2yr and 5yr chart for Yahoo. Peaks and valleys, but no growth. Why should we think that will change? Because Jerry Yang says so?
How stupid you think Icahn is? I am sure before, he bought 59 million shares he made sure that MSFT comes back to the table. It is all about money, I am happy with a price tag of $34 for YHOO and so would be MR Icahn.
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Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday May 15, 2008 05:18PM EDT
LoL. Good game, Yang. The investors are clearly the winner in this ball game!!!