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Roubini: Why Bill Gross Is Wrong and I'm Right About Nationalizing Banks

Posted Mar 02, 2009 10:43am EST by Aaron Task in Newsmakers, Banking
In the past year, "nationalization" has gone from the unthinkable to the heavily debated. From the beginning, Nouriel Roubini of NYU's Stern School has played an integral role in the discussion, having warned of its likelihood long before most people have even considered the possibility.

More recently, Roubini has publicly advocated for full nationalization of struggling banks like Citigroup, including here and in The Washington Post. This has exposed him to criticism, notably from Pimco's Bill Gross who recently wrote:

"I think Roubini, Dodd and Greenspan haven't thought this one through. The U.S. isn't Sweden, and not just because our blondes aren't au naturel."

Whether or not the U.S. should adopt the so-called Swedish solution and nationalize its banks is much more than an academic debate, in the past 72 hours the government has announced plans to up its stake in Citigroup to as high as 36% and laid out its fourth attempted rescue of AIG.

Gross' critique of Roubini and nationalization focuses on these main points:

  • The Perils of Going Swedish: "Their successful approach revolved around a handful of banks but we have 7,500, as well as many S&Ls and credit unions, which would have to be flushed into government hands," Gross writes. "Regulators are overwhelmed as it is."
  • Lehman, Revisited: "If you thought Lehman Brothers was a mistake, just standby and see what nationalizing Citi or BofA would do," Gross warns.
  • Haircut 100: While common shareholders will suffer from further capital injections into banks, "to go further, however, and 'haircut' senior debt or even existing preferred stock similar to that issued via the TARP would create an instability policymakers should not want to risk," Gross writes. "In turn, forcing creditors to take haircuts would undermine other financial sectors such as insurance companies and credit unions."

In the accompanying video, Roubini addresses (and refutes) each of these points and also tackles the controversial question over whether Gross, a.k.a. "the bond king", is merely talking his book and trying to influence policymakers. (Note: This video was taped Friday, prior to Bloomberg's report about Pimco, the world's largest bond manager, advising the government on Bank of America's toxic debt.)

 

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210 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 10:49AM EST

I'm going to buy GE at $5.00.

Giovanni
Giovanni - Monday March 02, 2009 10:57AM EST

Roubini needs to get a life! he reminds of a " ArmChair General " never seeing actual battle himself but always sending others out to die for him! What a coward!

Free Texas 2012
Free Texas 2012 - Monday March 02, 2009 10:57AM EST

But look at AIG - Where do the problems end? The problem I see that Citi and BofA are like a sticky paper stuck to the bottom of your shoe. You try to get it off with your other shoe and it just sticks to that shoe and you can't get rid of it unless you reach down and take it off but then it sticks to your hand and when you get rid of it your hands are still sticky until you wash yourself of all evidence of the sticky paper and you go through great effort to rid yourself of it. When would the U.S. government be rid of these sticky banks? Six months? Six years? Ever?

Jason
Jason - Monday March 02, 2009 10:58AM EST

Ha ha, two drunk people trying to hold each other up. Great analogy! Another good point, many of these banks are already partially nationalized, we're just kidding ourselves. What a mess.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 11:01AM EST

Of course Bill Gross is going to say these things, as he stands to lose a lot as his company is a major bond and preferred holder in these institutions. He would rather have the US taxpayers foot the losses.

Reedersong
Reedersong - Monday March 02, 2009 11:01AM EST

Will the government run the banks 'More Efficiently' than the private companies?

BigDaddyCaddy
BigDaddyCaddy - Monday March 02, 2009 11:03AM EST

Bill Gross should be considered part of the problem with our banking system, not part of the solution. If Bill Gross was so smart why didn't he predict the collapse. We shouldn't keep listening to the same idiocracy that got us in this mess. Shame on you Bill Gross go crawl away and die somewhere. The US shows just how stupid they really are by listening to him. What a loser.

George
George - Monday March 02, 2009 11:04AM EST

It's possible to nationalise banks, wipe out equity shareholders and protect bondholders. Collateral damage should certainly be the criterion for deciding the fate of bond holders.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday March 02, 2009 11:06AM EST

To remain private the two Banks.....Citygroup and Bank of America..........Please put private capital at around $ 200 Billion Dollars to fund the massive losses from operation...... Any Investor money, from private source, please put on the Table.... If no private funding the alternative is Nationalozation of the Banks os on the cards.......... Put your private funding around $ 200 Billion Only at the moment.... If none of it ..Shut your mouth........

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Monday March 02, 2009 11:08AM EST

Roubini is correct as long as there is no rescue from private funding of the Banks......the Answer is Nationalization......... Put the money on the table........

franck s
franck s - Monday March 02, 2009 11:09AM EST

There is a place for capitalism and a place for socialism, and there is a place for both on a limited scale working together in the same society.

m forrest
m forrest - Monday March 02, 2009 11:13AM EST

Bill Gross did predict Dow 5000 3 or 4 years ago.

Tello jr
Tello jr - Monday March 02, 2009 11:13AM EST

OK, I am tired of complaining! WHOEVER is in charge of the DOW graphs on the Yahoo finance page needs to be FIRED!!!!!! I cannot believe it is that hard to keep them straight? Are these morons comming to work drunk? PLEASE!!!!!!! FIX YOUR CHARTS!!!!!!!!

Tello jr
Tello jr - Monday March 02, 2009 11:13AM EST

OK, I am tired of complaining! WHOEVER is in charge of the DOW graphs on the Yahoo finance page needs to be FIRED!!!!!! I cannot believe it is that hard to keep them straight? Are these morons comming to work drunk? PLEASE!!!!!!! FIX YOUR CHARTS!!!!!!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 11:14AM EST

sting them some more. soon i will have all your money.

Mike
Mike - Monday March 02, 2009 11:14AM EST

You all are missing the point, the markets will never recover as long as we bailout the banks responsible for the collapse....it sends the wrong signal to investors (no accountability, no transperancy, no certainty that management and/or practices will differ) Bottom line: These banks have already died, we just wont recognize it. They stopped breathing long ago. The only question is how long it will take for the Government to do the right thing and take them over for the sake of the economy. Of course, shareholder value will be lost, but that what happens when a bank destroys itself thru bad risks and mismanagement. After this happens, people will have confidence again, since the market will have corrected itself, thru the death of the banks and insurance companies that led to crisis. No one wants to do because of the consequences, but its the consequences that are needed to turn the page and signal of some finality to the process. You ideologues need to suck it up: Take the pain. Realize what caused it. Dont make the same mistakes. If you dont want the govt to take over banks, dont put yourself in a position where it can be discussed as a possibility. Dont mismanagement, avoid regulation, and take unreasonably risky adventures.

Tello jr
Tello jr - Monday March 02, 2009 11:14AM EST

OK, I am tired of complaining! WHOEVER is in charge of the DOW graphs on the Yahoo finance page needs to be FIRED!!!!!! I cannot believe it is that hard to keep them straight? Are these morons comming to work drunk? PLEASE!!!!!!! FIX YOUR CHARTS!!!!!!!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 11:16AM EST

Let us all give huge props to Aaron Task for asking the obvious question: What does Bill Gross have to lose in this situation? (Was it just me or did Blodgett pee his pants at this point!?) Aaron Task, if you're reading this, see if you can't get yourself assigned to the White House press corps. Ask those morons some real financial and econ questions because those guys don't have a clue. (Neither, apparently, does the administration.)

Rov
Rov - Monday March 02, 2009 11:18AM EST

Nationalization = Comunism. Please think about it.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Monday March 02, 2009 11:18AM EST

Is it against the law to yell "Ponziiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii" in an overcrowded market?

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