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The Three Ways GE Can Survive

Posted Mar 05, 2009 11:23am EST by Henry Blodget in Investing, Newsmakers, Recession

From The Business Insider, March 5, 2009:

If GE Capital were a bank, it would almost certainly be insolvent (GE).

The company has $661 billion of assets and only $53 billion of equity.  If its assets were marked-to-market, like those of banks, it is hard to imagine that the losses wouldn't wipe out GE Capital's equity.  All it would take would be an 8% writedown--in a global debt collapse in which some assets are now worth pennies on the dollar.

So what happens now?

A few possibilities:

  • GE muddles through.  It shrinks its asset base gradually, uses cash flow from its industrial and finance businesses to cover write-downs and losses, and eventually emerges from the crisis a shadow of its former self.  Of course, while it's doing this, it won't be snapping up cheap businesses, building its industrial operations, and pumping hundreds of billions of dollars of new credit into the economy the way a robust GE would.  At least it will control its destiny, though, and not become a national embarrassment like Citi and Bank of America.
  • GE raises tens of billions of new equity from the private market.  Possible, but unlikely.  And getting tougher and more expensive all the time.  Having vaporized their capital by falling for the "just trust us" assurances of the collapsing banks, global investors are understandably skeptical of any company that claims its capital position is strong.
  • Taxpayers bail GE out.  Tim Geithner and Jeff Immelt meet in some secret back room and hash out a plan whereby the taxpayer backstops GE Capital's losses and the western world is saved.  Something tells us that this one won't go over too well.  The public has already had it with bailouts and Geithner, and the idea of bailing out a company that still throws of tens of billions of dollars of cash a year from an industrial business might be the last straw.

Which one will we choose?  Probably A or C.  But we'll cross that bridge when we come to it.  In the meantime, back to Platitudes, Assurances, Denial.

More coverage from The Business Insider:

 

 

164 Comments

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:31AM EST

"In the meantime, back to Platitudes, Assurances, Denial." WOrD uP Henry.

Italiano
Italiano - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:37AM EST

We are in deep doo doo and I think the cure will be more painful than anyone thinls And take longer too

Italiano
Italiano - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:39AM EST

The excesses have been great and the cure will be long and painful

Reedersong
Reedersong - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:40AM EST

I am full of crap.

Italiano
Italiano - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:40AM EST

I don't see GM surviving

monk man
monk man - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:41AM EST

With the demise of GE the truth is out and the lies are exposed to the criminals yes criminals that run the largest corporations in America. Face it we as a county are broke and now all the shell games that have been going on with money that just does not exist is coming to the end. The IT CAN"T HAPPEN HERE is happening here right now. Soon the fuse will arrive at it's destination and when it does, you better have cash and guns on hand. I believe the fuse was ignited on 9/11/01.

Roxio50
Roxio50 - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:41AM EST

Henry what do you know? Nothing!!! I thought you were banned from doing anything with financial markets. I remember Amzon going to $400 based on your "New Economy" busines model.

Bart
Bart - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:41AM EST

Henry What is your short position in this stock? You should really disclose this to keep from getting in trouble.

cliff
cliff - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:42AM EST

Oh sure, let's use taxpayer dollars to bail out G.E. so they too like their crooked counterparts on Wall Street can live another day to tighten the screws on the American people. Without a doubt, the White House, Congress, Federal Reserve, Treasury Dept, etc., etc., equally as corrupt if not more than the corporate world, are formulating plans to do just that.

Michael
Michael - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:43AM EST

Why not break up GE, spinning GE Capital to the shareholders ? OK so GE Capital would be worth 10 cents/share but the Industrial side is worth $ 12 / share . Is this a stupid idea ?

christopherc
christopherc - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:47AM EST

This company is strong and American owned.....Not like Citi who has a Saudi Arabian Arab Prince that owns tons of it's shares !!!!!!!! Let's keep American companies owned by Americans !!!!!!

Rcjr
Rcjr - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:47AM EST

when will it all end im lossing my -ss

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:48AM EST

Generous Motors?

Jesse
Jesse - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:48AM EST

The rhetoric is absolutely from another reality. Every where you look- every piece of journalism (I guess save Henry and Roubini) has their spyglass out for the 'recovery'. I just don't get it- even if we did hit a bottom, this is a massive downturn. What do these journalists think?? The market is gonna rally four thousand points on some new bubble or industry and consumerism? For one, there is no funding for speculation, pump and dump, manias and rallies. For two, there is no bubble big enough to blow up jack with this market. For three, industry has no money, consumers have no money, and earning potential is shrinking massively.

Robert
Robert - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:48AM EST

Looks GE Capital got their fair share of Harvard MBA's, just like BOA and Citi. How to solve the problem? First, close Harvard's MBA school, what an embarassment! Second, let all the banks fail, all the stupid investment companies. Third, exact resititution from all the executives involved (take away their bank accounts, brokerage accounts, homes, cars, luxury yachts, penthouse suites, etc). Fourth, only bail out those who lose savings in banks that are FDIC insured. Fifth, start over.

STORMSTOCKER1
STORMSTOCKER1 - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:48AM EST

OUR GOVERNMENT HAS "SET UP" G.E.,THE MEGABANKS, WALL STREET INVESTMENT HOUSES,GM.CHRYSLER,ETC.-THEY AND THEIR STOCKHOLDERS, AND HANDLERS, HAVE ALLOWED MASSIVE DEBT TO BE PILED ON, WITH THE THOUGHT THAT EVERYTHING IS STATUS QUO-The government is in debt, too.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:49AM EST

They need to stop short selling period of the financials. The country will break and we don't need criminals running the streets. Where is the leadership?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:50AM EST

We need to see some of these leading Corp CEOs behind bars...

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:51AM EST

keep american companies owned by americans? what are we supposed to do? sell ourselves overseas? what americans have enough money to own american companies? our government doesnt even have enough money for them and that's all of us.

roger g
roger g - Thursday March 05, 2009 11:51AM EST

In a culture where arrogance and incompetence are virtues, it's almost a sure bet that Immelt will end up in Washington as a presidental 'consultant'.

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