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Economy in 'Free-Fall': Unemployment Rate Surges to 8.1%, Highest in 25 Years

Posted Mar 06, 2009 12:26pm EST by Tech Ticker in Investing, Recession

Another 651,000 U.S. jobs were lost in February, the Labor Department said today, bringing the total number of jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 to 4.4 million. The unemployment rate jumped to 8.1%, it's the highest level in 25 years. 

Our guest, Nariman Behravesh, chief economist with IHS Global Insight, says another few months of 600k to 700k jobs lost per month is likely. 

Before the economy bottoms (hopefully in late 2009), America could shed another 3.5 million to 4 million more jobs, bringing the unemployment level to a peak of 10% to 11%, he says. The economy and job market is in a "free-fall."

More broadly, the economist sees negative growth for a few more months (at least), with a best-case scenario of 1.5 percent to 2 percent GDP growth in 2010. But wait. The Obama administration projects the economy will grow 3.2 percent next year. "Too optimistic," says Behravesh, author of Spin-Free Economics.


239 Comments

franck s
franck s - Friday March 06, 2009 12:29PM EST

And GM really needs a pink slip, but won't get it thanks to Obama's taxpayer money.

Robert
Robert - Friday March 06, 2009 12:35PM EST

Most of the rich and politicians have replaced their "Rose" colored glasses for "Blackened" ones, Keep giving the taxpayers money to the stiffs that put us in this mess. When is it Enough?

dano
dano - Friday March 06, 2009 12:37PM EST

Is this supposed to be news to us? I'm predicting a double-dip recession where we go back to barely positive GDP growth for a few months in 2010, and then go back to negative GDP growth sometime during 2010. The recession finally ends in late 2012. Our government's policies are not really helping the taxpayer much, compared with what it's costing us. Forget trickle-down economics, and let's talk about how helping the consumer will ultimately help companies and the US. When you build a house do you start with building a roof or the basement? The same goes for economics. Beneficial policies should be applied equally among all taxpayers so that everyone benefits, not just those who are irresponsible. These policies would ensure solid long-lasting growth, unlike current policies.

bruce
bruce - Friday March 06, 2009 12:38PM EST

The calculation was different 25 years ago!.Check shadowstats.com for comparison using the same method of determining unemployment.

Robert
Robert - Friday March 06, 2009 12:38PM EST

the economy is not in a "free-fall", idiots! haven't the idiots learned to choose their words more carefully, esp. after idiots like Chuckie Schumer caused IndyMac to fail by uttering a few words! the economy contracted last year maybe 2%, meaning, 98% is still going. you'd think the opposite were the case reading the headlines. i suppose the idiots are just seeking to graduate to morons.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday March 06, 2009 12:39PM EST

Glad my grandfather isn't alive to witness this. He managed to live through the first depression.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday March 06, 2009 12:42PM EST

Believe it or not, America absolutely needs this mess to foster better behavior in the future... what goes around comes around!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday March 06, 2009 12:44PM EST

Outsource and offshore another 20 million jobs, and then let the tax policies encourage more of it, while federal, state and local budgets spend red ink to pay for the revenue losses generated by the job losses, that'll help a lot. China will manipulate their currency and give all kinds of breaks, India will let some of its companies operate tax free for up to 5 years if they can prove they're luring jobs from abroad and from the USA to their shores, but oh no, noooooo, it's protectionist if we fix the tax policies that encourage American companies to offshore and outsource. PROTECTIONIST! PROTECTIONIST! THAT'S HOSTILE TO AMERICAN COMPANIES! AHHHRRGGGGHHHHH! OH NO, OH NO, YOU'RE A PROTECTIONIST!!! (given out a billion dollars out in bonuses latetly and another 100% pay increase for your executives for carrying on the charade corporate commies?)

Gary
Gary - Friday March 06, 2009 12:45PM EST

At least 14% if you consider the ones not reported and aged off... Once every 4 seconds an American loses their job.... I am sitting here thanking my Senator and House member every waking moment of my life for that statistic.... Yet, 90% of Congress got re-elected November/2008??? I mean, I know why it happened, I just do not understand why anyone would continuously vote for someone as egregious as ANY member of this seated Congress. Anyone have the balls to explain why they voted for their incumbent?

geno
geno - Friday March 06, 2009 12:46PM EST

Maybe we should lose some economists. Really, what value do they add?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday March 06, 2009 12:46PM EST

A service economy based overwhelmingly on consumerism and debt has never been put to this level of stress. So, the truth is, none of our leaders have a clue.

AdmiralL
AdmiralL - Friday March 06, 2009 12:47PM EST

Another "nattering-nabob-of-negativism"! All of these talking heads have great foresight...It's called the value of hindsight! Note also (as usual), that he's promoting his book.

RivrB
RivrB - Friday March 06, 2009 12:48PM EST

So you want me to believe there is a 92% employment rate? Yea right campidiot.com

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday March 06, 2009 12:48PM EST

Save the economy -- cut all public employees pay by 20% and use the money to pay people who really want to work.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday March 06, 2009 12:48PM EST

That not surprising now, look at past real salary and income data of American on salarylist.com incometaxlist.com It is not sustainable to support all these house prices GM average pay is $85K, can you believe it?

Gumby
Gumby - Friday March 06, 2009 12:48PM EST

Coke plans $2 billion investment in China Friday March 6, 6:57 am ET Coca-Cola plans to invest $2B in China over 3 years HONG KONG (AP) -- The Coca-Cola Co. said Friday it plans to invest $2 billion in China over the next three years on top of the billions of dollars it has already committed...Coca-Cola is proud to be a long term partner of China, and our commitment and confidence in China never wavers" China sees signs economy might be recovering Friday March 6, 6:42 am ET China sees signs economy might be recovering already… BEIJING (AP) -- China forecasts 8% economic growth for 2009 Tuesday March 3, 6:47 am ET China believes that even though there will be a slight slowdown in their economy, it appears to be another banner year for Communist China. NEW DELHI: India on Thursday indicated that the US move against outsourcing may be contested in the World Trade Organisation, stating New Delhi will take up the issue with Washington. Nath said, "Outsourcing of technology development by large companies cannot be switched on and off, he added, and the policy is protectionist." Over 1,000 large American corporations have moved a significant portion of their jobs abroad... ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT WHY WE HAVE REVENUE SHORTFALLS AT FEDERAL, STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS WHEN GOOD PAYING JOBS HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY BURGER FLIPPERS AND STORE CLERKS OR WORSE, UNEMPLOYMENT LINES AND GOVERNMENT HANDOUTS AND TEMPORARY JOBS, AND WHY WE CAN'T PAY FOR HOMES? WHAT PART OF THAT DON’T YOU UNDERSTAND?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday March 06, 2009 12:49PM EST

"The Obama administration projects the economy will grow 3.2 percent next year." These people are a joke! Good luck to everyone because we are in some deep doo doo and harder times are coming....My employer, a leader in the global shipping industry, has already cut wages, hours and 30% of our employees....As far as the above comment, GM doesn't need to fail...the unions need to fail.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday March 06, 2009 12:49PM EST

"Tech Ticker in Free Fall" "Readers leaving in Droves!" "The Sky is Falling! "Lions and tigers and bears....oh my!"

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Friday March 06, 2009 12:49PM EST

Tell us something we don't know, I wonder how the high paid executives at the failed companies are spending the week-end. probably worrying how to feed the family.

Brian L
Brian L - Friday March 06, 2009 12:50PM EST

If the government really wants things to get back on track, they should give every U.S. adult citizen $10,000. This will help everyone pay off credit cards, get whole on house payments, etc. Let the big banks fail, let the auto makers fail. Stop giving our money away to crooks. This $10,000 per citizen will cost about $2.5 trillion. The same amount they are giving to big banks, AIG, auto makers, and everyone else. So what if the banks fail. They will go through an orderly bankruptcy and all will be good again. This is not rocket science. Just give us money and watch the economy recover.

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