Tuesday, December 15, 2009, 8:34PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.

Good News! Economist Sees GDP Down 7% in Q1 and 9.25% Unemployment in 2010

Posted Mar 10, 2009 02:16pm EDT by Aaron Task

It's unambiguously bad out there as the U.S. economy has "fallen off a cliff," to quote Warren Buffett.

The good news is the first quarter probably will prove to be the nadir of the downturn, says Robert Barbera, chief economist at Investment Technology Group and author of The Cost of Capitalism.

Barbera's baseline forecast is first-quarter GDP fall 7% and then the economy starts to slowly recover, getting back to modest positive growth by late 2009 and decent growth in 2010. In other words, he thinks Ben Bernanke's "reasonable prospect" for 2010 recovery is, indeed, reasonable.

Still, because employment lags economic activity, Barbera foresees the unemployment rate peaking at around 9.25% in spring 2010.

This is a relatively optimistic forecast but predicated on a key condition: Policymakers get the bank bailout structured correctly.

We discuss that in more detail in a forthcoming segment but Barbera, while conceding neither is perfect, gives the administration passing marks for both the stimulus package and the mortgage relief plan, echoing recent comments here by Nariman Behravesh of IHS Global Insight.

135 Comments

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:19PM EDT

tats gr8! http://hightimes.com/ Zzzzzzzzz!

Dean
Dean - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:23PM EDT

Head fake!

ezshooter
ezshooter - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:25PM EDT

AIG executives need to be drawn and quartered, perhaps staking their heads somewhere on Wall Street. America rocks, we'll be back and smarter, at least for a few years.

Popat
Popat - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:26PM EDT

wake me up when its all over.

Michael
Michael - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:27PM EDT

His guess is as good as yours

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:29PM EDT

Lot of people lining up to throw their money away today. Keep it coming you optimists, this is your big chance!

West
West - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:32PM EDT

What the heck is this guy talking about -- "if they get the policy right"? No, no, no. They've already got the policy all wrong. We get discredited Keynesian "stimulus" and banker/bondholder bailouts. And we get to pay for both! Stupid, stupid, stupid. And wrong, wrong, wrong. What would my answer be? Book the losses. There have been losses, and they must be booked. Just make sure that the risk-takers take the losses, NOT Joe Middle-class Taxpayer. "Too big to fail" and "systemic risk" are lies to fool the rubes and hayseeds who actually pay their taxes...ahem.

Ronnie Woo Woo
Ronnie Woo Woo - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:32PM EDT

I wish there would be some real housing relief! www.everymanplan.com

Elmer
Elmer - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:35PM EDT

All depends on what Obama does, with this so called “stimulus” and his other policies I think this is best case. If he raises taxes in 2009 or 2010 expect unemployment to go double digits.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:35PM EDT

It's about time......... "To have a sustained rally, we have to have a shift in sentiment," seeing people living in tents has to change sentiment, I don't see how it would'nt. We all have to see positive to help those who can't.

JEFF
JEFF - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:36PM EDT

If you beleive that B.S., Then I have some land in Florida I want to sell you! The next major crisis of hyperinflation and the collapse of the the dollar will insure that doesn't happen. I am always amazed how people see what they want to see and ignore the facts. JB

Global Traveller
Global Traveller - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:37PM EDT

Real unemployment is over 10%. But then again, what do you expect from politicians and economists in denial?

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:38PM EDT

Excellent! I'll buy my Cadillac Escalade during the fourth quarter! Happy Days will be here again...soon!!!

Rayster
Rayster - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:38PM EDT

The market likes good news! Keep it coming!

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:39PM EDT

More blah,blah & blah,Yawn.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:41PM EDT

The FED should suspend all payroll taxes for one week. Fix Mark to Market and look towards a $600. stimulus check towards the end of the year for every American. A check on the 1st of July would help also.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:44PM EDT

Yeah, the Great Recession till 2015 has just begun.

NNN
NNN - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:51PM EDT

Market Soars Happy, Market Collapse Unhappy, Market Soars Happy, Market Collapse Unhappy...AD INFINITUM... (reverse if short seller) All BS!!! People are yo-yo's...Like those garbage Horse Racing Tip sheets. Mostly wrong and yet people keep buying day after day. Like humans memories can't process truth that there is no truth...

- Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:53PM EDT

You can recue all of the Banks that you want, I think the American people have woken up and they are going to Opt-Out of the new-new-new economy and form their own. A new economic engine without debt and usery is needed in this country and that is treasonous to the existing system. Without the consumer buying in the new whatever they create will fail. Bring on the collapse, the future will be brighter for it!

ANTHONY
ANTHONY - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:55PM EDT

PREDICITION;; THE MARKET WILL GO UP WHEN WE LET THE IRAQ.IES, {ISLAM} KILL EACH OTHER IN "PEACE"..TRYING TO CHANGE "THEIR BEHAVIOR".. AND BETTING THE RANCH,, IN THE PROCESS ,.....,, IS LIKE SOCIAL ENGINEERING IN AMERICA""YOU LET THEM KILL EACH OTHER IN "PEACE".BUT HIRE ENOUGH COPS". ,, and enought churches,,,T O KEEP COLLATERAL DAMAGE AT A "MANAGIBLE LEVEL"even if it costs a fortune ,,, .... ANY WAY WHATS A FEW "".UMPTIEEN CATTA CENTA FAJILLIONSSSSSSS "".MORE OR LESS. with all the fajillionsss.profit in 2008,, the treasury will be " very full" ,very soon ........my ass.

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