Tuesday, December 15, 2009, 8:34PM ET - U.S. Markets Closed.
It's unambiguously bad out there as the U.S. economy has "fallen off a cliff," to quote Warren Buffett.
The good news is the first quarter probably will prove to be the nadir of the downturn, says Robert Barbera, chief economist at Investment Technology Group and author of The Cost of Capitalism.
Barbera's baseline forecast is first-quarter GDP fall 7% and then the economy starts to slowly recover, getting back to modest positive growth by late 2009 and decent growth in 2010. In other words, he thinks Ben Bernanke's "reasonable prospect" for 2010 recovery is, indeed, reasonable.
Still, because employment lags economic activity, Barbera foresees the unemployment rate peaking at around 9.25% in spring 2010.
This is a relatively optimistic forecast but predicated on a key condition: Policymakers get the bank bailout structured correctly.
We discuss that in more detail in a forthcoming segment but Barbera, while conceding neither is perfect, gives the administration passing marks for both the stimulus package and the mortgage relief plan, echoing recent comments here by Nariman Behravesh of IHS Global Insight.
AIG executives need to be drawn and quartered, perhaps staking their heads somewhere on Wall Street. America rocks, we'll be back and smarter, at least for a few years.
Lot of people lining up to throw their money away today. Keep it coming you optimists, this is your big chance!
What the heck is this guy talking about -- "if they get the policy right"? No, no, no. They've already got the policy all wrong. We get discredited Keynesian "stimulus" and banker/bondholder bailouts. And we get to pay for both! Stupid, stupid, stupid. And wrong, wrong, wrong. What would my answer be? Book the losses. There have been losses, and they must be booked. Just make sure that the risk-takers take the losses, NOT Joe Middle-class Taxpayer. "Too big to fail" and "systemic risk" are lies to fool the rubes and hayseeds who actually pay their taxes...ahem.
I wish there would be some real housing relief! www.everymanplan.com
All depends on what Obama does, with this so called “stimulus” and his other policies I think this is best case. If he raises taxes in 2009 or 2010 expect unemployment to go double digits.
It's about time......... "To have a sustained rally, we have to have a shift in sentiment," seeing people living in tents has to change sentiment, I don't see how it would'nt. We all have to see positive to help those who can't.
If you beleive that B.S., Then I have some land in Florida I want to sell you! The next major crisis of hyperinflation and the collapse of the the dollar will insure that doesn't happen. I am always amazed how people see what they want to see and ignore the facts. JB
Real unemployment is over 10%. But then again, what do you expect from politicians and economists in denial?
Excellent! I'll buy my Cadillac Escalade during the fourth quarter! Happy Days will be here again...soon!!!
The FED should suspend all payroll taxes for one week. Fix Mark to Market and look towards a $600. stimulus check towards the end of the year for every American. A check on the 1st of July would help also.
Yeah, the Great Recession till 2015 has just begun.
Market Soars Happy, Market Collapse Unhappy, Market Soars Happy, Market Collapse Unhappy...AD INFINITUM... (reverse if short seller) All BS!!! People are yo-yo's...Like those garbage Horse Racing Tip sheets. Mostly wrong and yet people keep buying day after day. Like humans memories can't process truth that there is no truth...
You can recue all of the Banks that you want, I think the American people have woken up and they are going to Opt-Out of the new-new-new economy and form their own. A new economic engine without debt and usery is needed in this country and that is treasonous to the existing system. Without the consumer buying in the new whatever they create will fail. Bring on the collapse, the future will be brighter for it!
PREDICITION;; THE MARKET WILL GO UP WHEN WE LET THE IRAQ.IES, {ISLAM} KILL EACH OTHER IN "PEACE"..TRYING TO CHANGE "THEIR BEHAVIOR".. AND BETTING THE RANCH,, IN THE PROCESS ,.....,, IS LIKE SOCIAL ENGINEERING IN AMERICA""YOU LET THEM KILL EACH OTHER IN "PEACE".BUT HIRE ENOUGH COPS". ,, and enought churches,,,T O KEEP COLLATERAL DAMAGE AT A "MANAGIBLE LEVEL"even if it costs a fortune ,,, .... ANY WAY WHATS A FEW "".UMPTIEEN CATTA CENTA FAJILLIONSSSSSSS "".MORE OR LESS. with all the fajillionsss.profit in 2008,, the treasury will be " very full" ,very soon ........my ass.
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__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Tuesday March 10, 2009 02:19PM EDT
tats gr8! http://hightimes.com/ Zzzzzzzzz!