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John Roque: Give This Rally the Benefit of the Doubt

Posted Apr 02, 2009 11:25am EDT by Aaron Task in Investing
Be it for technical reasons, hope the economy is hitting a trough, or just a "dead cat bounce," the stock market has rallied sharply off its early March lows, and was heading higher early Thursday morning.

"Nobody knows" whether this is really a ‘new bull market' but John Roque, technical analyst at Natixis Bleichroeder, is giving this recent rally "the benefit of the doubt."

That's notable if only because Roque was highly skeptical of rallies during 2008, and preached caution several times in appearances here, notably on Oct . 10 and Nov. 20.

While not in the ‘generational low' camp, citing the market's history of long bottoming processes, Roque believes the March lows will likely hold "for a while."

The technician is most encouraged by the recent sharp decline in number of NYSE stocks making new 52-week lows. That improvement in market internals is the "single most-important data input" he's watch, he says.

For investors, Roque offers the following advice:

  • Rotate out of groups like healthcare, biotech and education that showed "relative strength" during the Sept.-March downturn.
  • Rotate into recent laggards like basic materials and consumer discretionary.
  • Overweight Asia (excluding Japan) vs. Europe and the U.S.
  • Continue to avoid financial, except for nimble traders, as we discuss in detail in a forthcoming segment.

105 Comments

kelly
kelly - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:32AM EDT

Not with my money buddy!!!!!!!!!!!! check the graph at findthelawyer.com and I will say it again, this is no normal market conditions we're in. So go ahead and call it what you wnat, but the max this leg up is 930, and if it goes that high, it will test the lows again and break it. This is what I think it is and I will stand by it.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:33AM EDT

I can not believe FASB Changed the rules! As an accountant, it is an insult to all of us. Those people should just erase "CPA" off their title.

oliver
oliver - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:38AM EDT

yes 3 months low will come

donfurio
donfurio - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:42AM EDT

Wow, idiot blodget actually has someone positive on, but not until the market has rallied 25%.

RobertK
RobertK - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:43AM EDT

Most bull rallies start 6-9 months before the recession is over. People who are waiting the the recession to end to put their money in will miss the boat. Those are the same stupid people who sell at the bottom and buy at the top. Good luck with that strategy. How has it been working so far?

donfurio
donfurio - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:44AM EDT

Wow, idiot blodget actually has someone positive on, but not until the market has rallied 25%.

Starswon
Starswon - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:45AM EDT

"It is necessary for every American, with becoming energy to endeavor to stop the dissemination of principles evidently destructive of the cause for which they have bled. It must be the combined virtue of the rulers and of the people to do this, and to rescue and save their civil and religious rights from the outstretched arm of tyranny, which may appear under any mode or form of government." --Mercy Warren, History of the Rise, Progress, and Termination of the American Revolution, 1805 www.constitutionparty.com

Gypsyman
Gypsyman - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:47AM EDT

I agree with soulwarrior. There's still alot of short sellers out there, but I think there's an outside chance the market could start picking up some steam!

Longshot
Longshot - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:48AM EDT

March and October are pivotal months. The big crashes ('29, '87, '08) usually occur in October while March often marks long-term bottoms...though the reverse can also happen. For example, March 2000 was an all-time high for the S&P 500 while October 2002 was a 5-year low. That was 19 months between the peak and valley. Then we had a final retest (but no new low) that set off a 5-year rally in March 2003. October 2007 marked a new all-time high. And what happened 19 months later? An 11-year low and huge reversal month in March 2009. Pay attention to these cycles...they are MUCH more important than 99% of the garbage you read in these articles and comments.

K L
K L - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:50AM EDT

I'm a CPA and I'm glad FASB change that rule.

giraffes
giraffes - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:52AM EDT

Well that's better, some balance. That's all I ask.

Elmer
Elmer - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:52AM EDT

Remember Obama is president and the Democrats have control of congress. The economy will see very little growth this year followed by inflation. Unless someone figures out how to stop this wasteful spending. I believe the market will go up put be cautious prepare for the tough times ahead.

David
David - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:53AM EDT

After the current bear market rally which is mainly because of the oversold nature of the market, we'll likely continue the current trend which is down. By the summer the recent lows will probably be taken out to possibly 6000 on the DOW, creating a nice double bottom and a solid base from which to start moving higher again reversing the trend. Forget all the media hype about whether this is the start of a new bull run, as this is unlikely. The lows need retested and a period of confidence building in the world economy before the trend reverses to a new bull market run. DT

Al Anderson
Al Anderson - Thursday April 02, 2009 11:56AM EDT

I think it was a great idea for FASB to change the rules! How else can we take something worth $10 and value it at $20 without anything changing? Next step...print more money with no inflationary consequences!

M
M - Thursday April 02, 2009 12:01PM EDT

Just like a terminally ill patient, the market will improve a little before before it crashes. Credit card defaults are at its highest ever. Unemployment rising. For the sake of the majority I sincerely wish the bull market is here to stay, but unfortunately do not think this is the case. My prediction is Dow back to low 6,000's if not by high 5,000's by the end of this year. But please feel free to disagree.

hunterta
hunterta - Thursday April 02, 2009 12:04PM EDT

WOW - Arron actually is letting someone with a semi-positive outlook on his show now that we've had the best month on record in over 50 years! Way to go Arron. Is this your attempt at being a balanced reporter - you still have a long way to go. BTW - you look like you are bored letting this guy talk - not as excited as telling everyone the world is coming to an end is it!!

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday April 02, 2009 12:06PM EDT

The key to recovery is boosting global demand means" jobs", and jobs are our first priority! The majority of people are forcused less on the past and much on the future...Just Keeping Economics Real.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday April 02, 2009 12:07PM EDT

FASB changed the accounting rules in November of 2007. Since that day, the market has fallen about 40%. Mark-to-market has earned a well deserved rest... before it swallows up the world. Of course, we could just keep feeding it bailout money.

__A_YAHOO_USER__
__A_YAHOO_USER__ - Thursday April 02, 2009 12:09PM EDT

I see this market as bear/bull. Centaur? heh Anyway, bear one week, bull the next. Learn to be versatile! It's fun! And sell calls when you're freaked out. Worst case scenario, you get your stock back because the market bottoms and you can sell it again later. Although if the market improves much more, I'll lose (the option) on Microsoft. Not to worry. I always sell the calls at a higher price than my initial investment anyway. It's not as easy as just riding on the 4.5% the Money Market used to offer, but when the MM dropped to under 1%, I threw it all back into equities short and long. Dividends rule, btw. So far... gyroscope level, coasting at medium altitude, smooth air, no turbulence, approaching runway by mid-summer.

Yahoo! Finance User
Yahoo! Finance User - Thursday April 02, 2009 12:10PM EDT

NO JOBS, NO MARKET RECOVERY, WHO CARES ABOUT THE TECHNICALS

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